Research Excerpts

Asset Flows, Investor Sentiment, & US Interest Rate Direction

Posted on: Wednesday, September 25th, 2013

The following (green highlights) is an excerpt from our September-October US Financial Market Chart Book, which was distributed to Asbury Research subscribers on September 17th.

“Chart Book”, one of 8 different reports that we produce for subscribers throughout the month, is a collection of key charts taken from a broad array of financial asset prices and related data that collectively convey our best investment ideas for the next one to several months in the US stock market and sectors, US interest rates, the US Dollar, and in economically influential commodities.

It includes a 20-25 minute video in which John Kosar, Director of Research, discusses the implications of each chart and how they are likely to affect the direction of asset prices.

Excerpt From: US Financial Market Chart Book
Asset Class:
US Interest Rates
Topic: Positioning of Commercial Hedgers in the 5-Year Treasury Note
Date: September 17th 2013

Excerpt From Our Sept-Oct US Financial Market Chart Book

Excerpt From Our Sept-Oct US Financial Market Chart Book

The chart on the left basically indicates that those entities who use the futures market to hedge their physical holdings in an asset, in this case mid dated US Treasuries, are the least hedged in the 5-Year as they have been since late 2005

The chart on the right shows that a survey of professional trend followers, who historically accumulate a market position opposite to that of the Commercial Hedgers, are as bearish on the price of the 10-Year Note as they have been in a decade.


The research excerpt above is Slide 20 of a 21 slide presentation that displays and explains what we believe are the most important and potentially market-moving charts and data series that pertain to US stocks, US market sectors, US interest rates, the US Dollar, and economically influential commodity prices like gold, copper and crude oil as we head into the 4th Quarter.

Asbury Research subscribers can view our entire September 17th report by visiting our Research Center.