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Here we periodically publish a chart and a brief excerpt from one of our 8 research reports for the purpose of familiarizing potential subscribers/clients to our investment research, and to stay on the radar screen of those who have already expressed an interest in us.

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If interested in an immediate subscription please email sales@asburyresearch.com or call 1-888-960-0005


ILF Meets Our $41.50 Upside Target

The chart below shows that the iShares S&P Latin America 40 Index ETF (ILF) met our $41.50 initial upside target this morning, first mentioned in our July 15th report entitled Latin America: The Clouds May Be Clearing (access requires subscription), to capture a 4% advance in a little less than 6 weeks.

The benchmark S&P 500 has risen by just 1% during the same period.

ILF daily since April 2014

ILF daily since April 2014

From that report:

The iShares S&P Latin America 40 Index ETF (ILF) broke out higher yesterday from 2 months of sideways price congestion, which suggests that its larger 2014 advance has resumed and targets at least an additional 4% rise to %41.60 that will remain valid above 39.05.  This sets up an initial 2:1 risk/reward ratio in the ETF that has the potential to greatly improve over time…

Finally, because ILF has been statistically uncorrelated to the S&P 500 SPDR ETF (SPY) over the past 13 years, and has already outperformed SPY by 15% since March, we view this Latin American ETF as being worthy of consideration as a means to both diversify portfolio risk and to potentially enhance performance.

Asbury Research subscribers should expect a follow-up report on ILF, one which includes another global stock market that we think has the potential for upcoming outright strength and relative outperformance versus the S&P 500, over the next week or so.


Keurig Green Mountain Inc. (GMCR) Meets Our $135.00 Upside Target

John Kosar appeared on Yahoo! Finance / CNBC’s Talking Numbers on Friday March 14th to discuss DreamWorks Animations (DWA).

With the stock trading near $112.00 per share during his appearance, and already up 50% for the year, John said that he expected an eventual move to $130-$135 later on in 2014.

For those of you playing along at home, the chart below shows that, after first dropping into the underlying support near $96.00 that John mentioned during the interview, GMCR rallied from there and met his $135.00 per share target today to capture a 21% advance in a little over 5 months, outperforming the benchmark S&P 500 which has risen by 8% during the same period.

GMCR Since January 2014

GMCR Since January 2014

You can view the video from John’s March 14th appearance below.

Interested investors can request further information, including research samples and services and pricing details, by emailing sales@asburyreearch.com or by phoning 1-888-960-0005.

Keurig Green Mountain Inc. (GMCR) Meets Our $135.00 Upside Target:


Appeared on:
August 22nd, 2014 at 12:43 pm


Investing With The Smart Guys

The purpose of our Research Excerpts is to provide interested investors with periodic snippets of our premium research, to show how we get Asbury Research subscribers in front of emerging trends in financial asset prices.

Our June 4th Research Excerpt, entitled Oil Prices: Smart Money Skeptical At $103 Per Barrel, was a pretty good example of that.  In the report, we provided an excerpt from one of our premium reports that showed commercial hedgers, who are the smart money in the oil business, were aggressively betting that crude oil was currently over-priced at $103 per barrel.  Moreover, the chart we provided showed that the previous two similar net positioning extremes, in April 2011 and February 2012, immediately preceded two 30% declines in oil prices.

The chart below shows that the NYMEX crude oil contract peaked just about a week after our June 4th Research Excerpt, at $106.15 per barrel on June 13th, before declining by $10.23 per barrel or 10% into today’s lows at $95.89 which, by the way, is the lowest for oil prices since March 21st.

Crude oil contract since 2014

Crude oil contract since 2014

Also noteworthy on the chart is that the recent collapse in oil prices has positioned the contract below its 200-day moving average, a widely-watched major trend proxy, which is currently situated at $97.19.

This opens the door for an even deeper decline.

Asbury Research subscribers can view the latest smart money positioning in broad list of US financial assets, including crude oil, via our Investor Sentiment Survey and in the other reports that we produce throughout the month.

Interested investors can request information about Asbury Research, including services, pricing, and sample reports, by emailing sales@asburyresearch.com or calling 1-888-960-0005.


Follow Up On John Kosar’s Aug 6th CNBC Appearance: Twenty-First Century Fox (FOXA)

Exactly one week ago, on August 6th, John Kosar, our Director of Research, appeared on the Talking Numbers segment of CNBC’s Street Signs to discuss Twenty-First Century Fox, Inc. (FOXA).  That interview appears below.

In the interview John pointed out on a longer-term chart that a former high of $29.41 per share in February 2000, combined with more near term support, at $30.67, could help the stock propel higher and said: “This looks like a great place to buy.”

The chart below shows that FOXA has since risen by $3.12 per share or 10% as of this morning, which:

  1. we would consider a windfall profit, especially in just one week’s time, and
  2. positions the stock at the upper edge of its 9 month trading range at $35.44.
FOXA daily since 2013

FOXA daily since 2013

Although, bigger picture, FOXA appears poised to continue significantly higher over the next 1-2 quarters, this important overhead resistance level may be a place to consider taking some very quick and significant near term profits off the table.

Thanks to CNBC and Yahoo! Finance for the opportunity to appear on the show last week.  John Kosar is scheduled to appear on Talking Numbers again on August 20th and August 27th.

Follow Up On John Kosar’s Aug 6th CNBC Appearance: Twenty-First Century Fox (FOXA):


Appeared on:
August 13th, 2014 at 9:02 am


Asbury Research Trend Model Update
& Interview with John Kosar

The following chart shows the performance of our trend model for the US stock market, which uses the S&P 500 as a proxy, updated through July 2013.

0802-1This is provided for information purposes only. Past performance or back-tested results may not necessarily indicate future results. The performance indicated from back-testing or historical track record may not be typical of future performance. No inferences may be made and no guarantees of profitability are being stated by Asbury Research LLC. The risk of loss trading in financial assets can be substantial. Therefore, you should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Also, in light of this week’s sharp decline in US equity prices we thought — if you haven’t already — you may be interested in listening to John Kosar’s  July 12th interview by James Puplava of the Financial Sense website.  In the interview, John discusses the effects that current geopolitical issues may have on the US stock market and on US interest rates, some of which may be emerging now, and some key levels to watch in both.

We thought it may make for some good weekend listening.

Click Here To Listen To The Interview

 

Interested investors can contact us by phone at 1-888-960-0005, or via email at sales@asburyresearch.com, to request sample reports and further information about services and pricing.


August Seasonality In Long Term US Interest Rates

Global Seasonal Analysis, one of 8 different reports that we produce for subscribers throughout the month, displays and analyzes annual, quarterly and monthly seasonal trends for 17 global asset prices including equities, benchmark interest rates, foreign exchange, and key commodity prices based on historical data going back to the 1950s.

The following is an excerpt from this month’s report.


US 10-Year Yield Monthly Seasonal Pattern Since 1957

The teal bar on the chart at upper left highlights August as theseasonally weakest month of the year for the yield of the US 10-Year Treasury Note based on data since 1957. It represents a sharp one-month seasonal collapse from July, the 3rd strongest month, and the beginning of an extended period of seasonal weakness for these yields that extends through December and include the five weakest months of the year.

Chart 7 of 23

Chart 7 of 23

The depth of the teal bar indicates that, on average since 1957, the yield of the 10-Year has declined by 1.24% in August.

continued>>>


Asbury Research subscribers can download the rest of this report by logging into our Research Center.

Interested investors can contact us by phone at 1-888-960-0005, or via email at sales@asburyresearch.com, to request sample reports and further information about services and pricing.


Dow Transports Meet Our 8475 Target

The chart below shows that the Dow Jones Transportation Index (DJTA) met our 8475 initial upside target this morning, first mentioned in our July 1st report entitled Surging Transports Support Our Outlook For Dow Industrials, to capture a 213 point, 3% advance in just about 3 weeks.

Dow Transports Since May

Dow Transports Since May

From that report:

“Considering the tight and stable long term positive correlation between the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports over the past 25 years, this new 8475 upside target in the Transports, situated 3% above the market, helps to confirm and corroborate the validity of our existing upside target in the Industrials.”

Surging Transports Support Our Outlook For Dow Industrials
Asbury Alert, July 1st 2014
(access requires subscription)


John Kosar’s July 10th Interview On Financial Sense

Click the link below to listen to John’s Kosar’s Thursday July 10th interview with James Puplava of the popular Financial Sense website, where John and Jim discuss the direction of the US stock market, US market sectors, US interest rates, and gold prices during the 3rd Quarter.

Click Here To Listen To The Interview

 


Asbury Research Trend Model:
US Stock Market Q2 2014 Update

The Performance page of our website lists Asbury Research’s market calls for various areas of the US financial landscape — including our trend model for the US stock market.

Our trend model was designed to be a simple and objective tool that quantitatively determines when the near term (monthly) trend is positive or bullish, and when it is not.

Investors evaluate models by performance.  Here is ours, beginning in 2007 and through Q2 2014, versus the S&P 500.

0702-4This information is provided for information purposes only. Past performance or back-tested results may not necessarily indicate future results. The results indicated from back-testing or historical track record may not be typical of future performance. No inferences may be made and no guarantees of profitability are being stated by Asbury Research LLC. The risk of loss trading in stocks, futures, commodities and Forex can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Our trend model is not intended to be a stand-alone, one size fits all trading system, but rather just one of many different metrics that we employ to produce a comprehensive market analysis, one that we believe is collectively more insightful and forward-looking than any of its individual components.

Our model doesn’t use short positions, or leveraged longs, or futures or options strategies — just a very simple and binary “in or out” mechanism using the bellwether S&P 500 as a proxy.

Our model argues against the buy and hold “strategy”, and the assertions by its proponents that “you can’t time the market” and “you can’t beat the market”.

Although buy and hold advocates can correctly point out that the S&P 500 is up 6.1% for the 1st Half of 2014 compared to just 2.9% for our trend model, we would counter by saying that attempting to get out of the way of an emerging market decline comes with the inherent risk of potentially missing out on some performance — especially within a Fed stimulus-fueled environment that has been a big part of atypically pushing the S&P 500 higher for the past 6 quarters without a meaningful correction.   Poor hedge fund returns since 2013 are a testament to this.

However, if you look back over a bigger span of time, our model’s performance since 2007 is a testament to intelligent quantitative risk management as it has more than doubled the S&P 500′s performance in index points during that period.  We view this as evidence that, over time, and during a period that includes all market environments including bullish, bearish, and neutral price trends, a conservative and repeatable quantitative approach trumps passive buy and hold.

Interested investors can contact us by phone at 1-888-960-0005, or via email at sales@asburyresearch.com, to request sample reports and further information about services and pricing.

Asbury Research subscribers can login to our Research Center to see our most recent updates on our outlook for the US stock market, US market sectors, US interest rates, and economically influential commodity prices like gold, crude oil, and copper.


3 Reasons For 1 More Leg Higher In US Stocks

Asbury Alerts are one of 8 different reports that we produce for subscribers at various intervals throughout the month.  Their purpose is to provide tactical and actionable investment ideas that pertain to the more strategic investment themes that appear in our Commentaries and other more intermediate term oriented reports.

The following is our May 23rd Asbury Alert, entitled 3 Reasons For 1 More Leg Higher In US Stocks, in it’s entirety to show you a good example of our approach to investing, and how it it helps our clientele of professional investors manage risk and improve performance.

Report: Asbury Alert
Title: 3 Reasons For 1 More Leg Higher In US Stocks
Date: Friday May 23rd, 9:10 am ET

 

In Monday’s (May 19th) Keys To This Week, we said:

The key takeaway for this week is this: if there is going to be another leg higher within the 2013 advance, it needs to begin from right here between now and month end.

More recently, in our May 20th report entitled Correction Now, Or Another Leg Higher? 2 Key Indexes To Watch., we said:

“…the US stock market is trading at a critical near term decision point from which it is likely to either: 1) begin one more minor leg higher before potentially beginning a corrective decline in the 3rd Quarter, or 2) begin that correction nowA sustained rise above NDX 3617 and/or SOX 583 would suggest the former, that the US stock market is beginning another near term leg higher before a potential corrective decline emerges in the 3rd Quarter.”

The following 3 charts collectively suggest that another near term leg higher is beginning now.

The highlighted area in Chart 1 below shows that the PHLX Semiconductor (SOX) Index broke out higher yesterday from almost 2 months of sideways congestion.  This breakout indicates that the SOX’s larger February advance is resuming and targets an additional 6% rise to 620 that will remain valid as long as the upper boundary of the pattern near 580 now loosely contains the index on the downside as underlying support.

<Editor’s Note: The SOX met our 620 initial on June 9th, to capture a 6% advance in a little over 2 weeks.>

Chart 1

Chart 1

Semiconductors typically lead Technology, and Technology typically leads the US broad market, so as long as this pattern remains intact it will also be seen as being indirectly near term bullish for the S&P 500.

Yesterday’s bullish breakout in the SOX is especially compelling because it occurred on significantly expanding investor assets in the PowerShares QQQ Trust ETF, which the highlighted area in the lower panel of Chart 2 below shows have now moved back above their 21-day (1-month) moving average for the first time since March 13th.

Chart 2

Chart 2

As long as these assets continue to expand/remain above their moving average, we will view it as an indirect indication that there is enough near term bullish conviction by investors for the SOX to meet its 620 target.

The highlighted area in the lower panel of Chart 3 below shows that, as the SOX is breaking out higher from 2 months of sideways congestion on expanding investor assets in the QQQs, the S&P 500‘s 1-month rate-of-change (ROC, the percentage change between the most recent price and the price 21 day ago) has been positive (bullish) since April 22nd and is now testing its zero line from above.

Chart 3

Chart 3

This means that SPX must begin to rise from right here in order to keep near term market momentum positive (bullish) as it did on October 8th and December 18th 2013, and most recently on April 11th (green vertical highlights between both panels).  A negative shift in the ROC would indicate that a pullback/correction is beginning in the US broad market index, as recently occurred between January 23rd and February 20th (red highlights).

Conclusion, Investment Implications, Strategy

The near term inflection/decision point for the US stock market that we have identified and have been discussing for the past several weeks appears to be resolving itself to the upside this week, which targets an additional 6% rise in the market leading PHLX Semiconductor (SOX) Index before a US broad market pullback/correction potentially emerges during the 3rd Quarter.

As long as the SOX remains above 580 on expanding investor assets in the PowerShares QQQ Trust ETF and a positive 1-month rate of change in the S&P 500, our currently positive near term bias for the US stock market will remain intact.


Since that report, the S&P 500 rose by 76 points or 4% into the 1,968 June 24th highs in exactly one month, and those highs were tested again today.

Interested investors can contact us at 1-888-960-0005 or sales@asburyresearch.com to request further information about services and pricing.

Asbury Research subscribers can login to our Research Center to see our most recent updates on our outlook for the US stock market, US market sectors, US interest rates, and economically influential commodity prices like gold, crude oil, and copper.


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