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Here we periodically publish a chart and a brief excerpt from one of our 8 research reports for the purpose of familiarizing potential subscribers/clients to our investment research, and to stay on the radar screen of those who have already expressed an interest in us.

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Professional investors can request a free trial of our premium research by clicking here and typing TRIAL REQUEST in the “how can we help you?” box.

If interested in an immediate subscription please email sales@asburyresearch.com or call 1-888-960-0005


Where Are US Stocks Headed Into August?

The following is a special Research Excerpt that includes both a downloadable chart book and 9 minute video in which John Kosar, our Chief Investment Strategist, walks you through:

  • some key charts and data series that pertain to the near term direction of the US stock market,
  • our Correction Protection Model for the US stock market.
  • 4 long/short ideas in individual stocks.

The purpose of this chart book and video is to give you a real-time snapshot of what we do for our clients every day and to encourage you to consider becoming an Asbury Research Subscriber.

[jwplayer mediaid=”30693″]

Click Here To View The Research Excerpt (PDF)

 

We have services and pricing options for hedge funds/portfolio managers, financial advisors/wealth managers, and serious individual investors.  Contact us at 888-960-0005 or sales@asburyresearch.com to get further information and research samples.

 


NASDAQ 100 Meets Our 4,600 Upside Target

The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) rose to 4600 on the open this morning to meet our 4,600  upside target first mentioned in our February 17th Keys To This Week report, capturing a 215 point, 5% advance in exactly 5 months.

Here is the chart from our February 17th report.

Chart 2 from our February 17th Keys To This Week report

Chart 2 from our February 17th Keys To This Week report

Here is the current chart updated this morning (July 17th).

    London FTSE 100 Index daily as of June 30th 2015

NASDAQ 100 Index daily as of July 17th 2015


Keys To This Week, July 13th 2015:
US Stock Market Sectors

The following (green highlights) is Monday’s (July 13th) Keys To this Week report for US Stock Market Sectors.  It is a Monday morning weekly report that utilizes Asbury Research’s own in-house metrics to identify over- and under-invested sectors of the S&P 500, and to analyze the latest asset flow data in 3 different time frames to identify where the money is going.

We also produce Keys To this Week reports for the US Stock Market, US Interest Rates & Treasuries, and the US Dollar & Commodities as a part of our subscription packages.

Contact us at 888-960-0005 or sales@asburyresearch.com for more information about services and pricing.

Hope you enjoy the report!

Keys To This Week, July 13th 2015:
US Stock Market Sectors

The green highlights in Table 1 below show that, for the second week in a row, the biggest weekly inflow of assets over the past 1 week, 1 month and 3 months periods went to Financials. This is beneficial to our model’s current overweight status in this sector per Table 2 below.

The red highlights show that the biggest outflow of ETF-related investor assets over the  past 1 week, 1 month and 3 months periods came from Industrials, which is beneficial to our model’s current underweight status in this sector.

Table 1

Table 1

Chart 1 below shows the historic daily average distribution of investor assets in the 9 Sector SPDR ETFs since our data series began on May 31st, 2006.

Chart 1

Chart 1

Chart 2 below displays the current distribution of these assets through July 10th.

Chart 2

Chart 2

The green highlights show the historically most under-invested sectors are currently, in order of severity: 1) Utilities, 2) Materials and 3) Energy.  The red highlights show the historically most over-invested sectors are, also in order of severity: 1) Consumer Discretionary, 2) Health Care and 3) Financials.

Table 2 below lists our current market calls for relative outperformance (green background), relative underperformance (red background), and market performance (blue background) versus the S&P 500 in the 9 sectors of the S&P 500 as represented by the Select Sector SPDR ETFs. The table includes the date that we initiated the call, relative sector performance since then, and in the rightmost column Asbury’s performance relative to the direction of the call.

Table 2

Table 2

This week our model moves to outperform in Consumer Staples while retaining an outperform bias in Financials (June 1st) and an underperform bias in Industrials (March 30th).

Consumer Staples: Expanding Investor Assets Fueling Recent Outperformance

Chart 3 below plots the daily relative performance of the Consumer Staples Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) versus the S&P 500 SPDR ETF (SPY) since November in the upper panel, with the daily percentage of ETF sector bet-related assets allocated to Consumer Staples and its 63-day moving average plotted in the lower panel.

Chart 3

Chart 3

The highlighted area in the lower panel shows that these assets expanded above their 63-day moving average last week for the first time since the end of 2014, indicating an emerging trend of quarterly expansion that typically fuels trends of relative sector outperformance versus SPY — just as it has over the past 2 weeks.

As long as this expansion in assets continues, so should recent relative sector outperformance.

continued….


Including market activity since this report was published several days ago, Financials has now outperformed the S&P 500 by 3% since our June 1st overweight and Industrials has underperformed the S&P 500 by 4% since our March 30th underweight.

Asbury Research Subscribers can access all our current research, plus a searchable archive of previous reports, by logging into the Research Center.

Interested investors can get get more information about our research services and pricing options by contacting us at 888-960-0005 or sales@asburyresearch.com.


8 Reasons To Make Us Your Investment Research Provider

Asbury Research provides a top down macro analysis of the US financial landscape to financial professionals, including Financial Advisors and Registered Investment Advisors, based on a broad array of technical, quantitative and behavioral inputs. 

Our focus is on the US markets, but our scope is global as we utilize our own database of intermarket relationships to determine where asset prices may be  headed domestically based on correlated markets overseas.  This approach provides us with more inputs, which helps us to be more consistently correct on market direction.

  1. Independence:

    Asbury Research has no affiliations with broker-dealers, banks, or other financial institutions. Our sole objective, and how we get paid, is to provide our subscribers with investment ideas that either make money or avoid losing money.

  2. Experience:

    John Kosar, Director of Research began his career in the Chicago futures pits in the 1980s, which turned out to be an incubator for his integrated intermarket approach and “under the hood” understanding of how financial markets work.

  3. Clear, Actionable Investment Ideas:

    Asbury Research gives conclusions. We are strategic 1-2 quarters out and tactical within 30 days. This means that we provide our subscribers with actionable intra-month buy and sell ideas that attempt to capture 70% or more of an intermediate term price trend.

  4. Comprehensive Macro Scope:

    We are not bottom-up stock pickers, but rather utilize an integrated top-down macro approach that produces integrated, cross-checked strategies for the US stock market, US market sectors, US interest rates, the US Dollar, and alternative investments like commodities and REITs.  We utilize ETFs to provide specific, actionable investment ideas in all of these assets.

  5. Quantitative / Technical Process:

    Our investment strategies are based on objective, repeatable metrics including investor asset flows, statistical relationships between various domestic and global financial asset prices, and price patterns that have consistently repeated themselves throughout history – rather than vague, anecdotal opinions on the latest economic data or geopolitical conflict.

  6. Unique Metrics:

    Asbury Research’s stock market sector research is based on our own in-house metrics that: 1) first define historically over-invested and under-invested US market sectors based on ETF asset flows, 2) then look for asset flows to support a move back towards historical norms of investment and, finally, 3) overlay price momentum-based metrics to confirm that the expected price move in the sector is actually underway.

  7. Performance:

    Our Correction Protection Model (CPM) for the US stock market has captured 1,170 basis points in the S&P 500 from 2007 through Q2 2015 (+82%), almost doubling the S&P 500’s 645 basis point rise (+45%) during the same period by simply avoiding downturns.  Moreover, CPM has produced this performance with half the volatility of returns in the S&P 500, and without using any leverage, short positions, or derivatives. Our model is binary — it is either in the market or out of it — and outperforms by simply being invested when stock prices are going up and not being invested when they are going down.

  8. Our Clients Love Us:

    One of many client testimonials:

    “Asbury Research is our most balanced and detailed research tool.   John (Kosar, Asbury’s Investment Strategist) looks at the markets with a macro view, taking into account a host of factors for each asset and situation.  We’ve worked with a lot of people who have a very narrow view of the markets, and who seem more interested in hiding their secret sauce or hedging their advice than in providing real value in investment analysis, which is why John is so refreshing. And perhaps most valuable of all, John Kosar focuses on tracking leading indicators, not lagging indicators, and turning them into actionable signals. We look forward to our future in partnership with Asbury Research.””

    Independent Financial Advisor, St. Paul Minnesota

Contact us via email at sales@asburyresearch.com or by phone at 1-888-960-0005 to get further information pertaining to pricing and services.  Sample reports/research trials are available.


Hong Kong Hang Seng Index
Meets Our Initial Downside Target

China’s Hang Seng Index declined to as low as 25,618 overnight to meet our 26,000 initial downside target first mentioned in our June 22nd Keys To This Week report, capturing a 1,081 point, 4% decline in 1 week.

Here is the chart from our June 22nd report.

Chart 9 from the June 22nd Keys To This Week

Chart 9 from the June 22nd Keys To This Week

Here is the current chart updated through June 29th. During the same period, positively correlated S&P 500 futures have declined by 40 points or 2%.

German DAX daily through June 9th 2015

Hang Seng Index daily through June 29th 2015


CSCO: Taking Profits On Our November 2014 Long

We closed out our November 12th long bias in Cisco Systems (CSCO) today to capture a $3.06 per share, 12% rise in the stock in almost 8 months.  The S&P 500 rose by just 3% during the same period.

We have been closing tracking CSCO for a number of reasons including its relatively large market cap, comprising 3.5% of the Technology Sector, and its positive correlation to the market-leading NASDAQ 100 Index.

Back on Nov. 12, John Kosar appeared on the “Talking Numbers” segment of CNBC’s “Street Signs to discuss Asbury Research’s forecast and outlook for CSCO just about two hours before the tech bellwether reported its fiscal first quarter earnings, and  targeted a move to $32 by the middle of 2015.  CSCO subsequently rose by $25.11 per share or 21% into the March 2nd high, but the stock has been stuck in neutral since then.

Asbury Research Subscribers: Our latest analysis and new price target for Cisco Systems (CSCO) are available in today’s (June 26th) Weekly Wrap-Up, which you can access by logging into the Research Center.


Be Aware Of US Stock Market Seasonality This Week

The chart below is one of twelve that are included in this week’s Keys To This Week report.  Keys To This Week is one of 8 different reports that we produce for clients/subscribers at various intervals throughout the month.

It shows that the 3rd week of June, which is this week, is statistically the seasonally weakest week of the entire 2nd Quarter in the S&P 500 based on data since 1957.

It is followed by the 3rd seasonally weakest week of the quarter, which is next week.

Chart 1 of 12, Keys Of This Week

Chart 1 of 12, Keys Of This Week for June 15th 2015

 

The red line shows that, also on average since 1957, the 3rd week of June has posted a negative weekly close 53% of the time, which is the highest incidence of a negative close for any week of the 2nd Quarter during this period.

Asbury Research subscribers can view the entire report, along with the rest of our premium research, by logging into the Research Center at www.asburyresearch.com.


11,000 Downside Target Met In German DAX

The German DAX declined to as low as 10,865 yesterday, June 8th, to meet our 11,000 initial downside target first mentioned in our May 4th Keys To This Week report and capture a 620 point, 5% decline in about 5 weeks.

Here is the chart from our May 4th report.

Chart 5 from the May 4th Keys To This Week

Chart 5 from the May 4th Keys To This Week

Here is the current chart updated through June 9th. During the same period the positively correlated S&P 500 declined by 42 points or 2%.

German DAX daily through June 9th 2015

German DAX daily through June 9th 2015


Dollar/Yen Meets Our 125.50 Upside Target

US Dollar/Japanese Yen (USDJPY) met our 125.50 initial upside target this morning (June 5th), which was first discussed in our January 26th Keys To This Week report (access requires subscription), to capture a 5% advance in a little more than 4 months.

From that report:

Chart 6 shows that USDJPY has been in the midst of sideways investor indecision since December 8th, following a sustained uptrend since July 2014.  These periods of investor indecision are typically resolved in the direction of the trend that preceded them, which in this case would be positive for USDJPY.  A close above the pattern’s 119.85 upper boundary would confirm the resumption of its larger bullish trend and target an additional 5% rise to 125.50.”

Chart 6 of 12 from January 26th Keys To This Week

Chart 6 of 12 from January 26th Keys To This Week

The next chart is a newly- updated version of the one from our January 26th report.

USDJPY daily as of June 5th 2015

USDJPY daily through June 5th 2015

Asbury Research subscribers can view our latest research
by logging into the Research Center.


New Addition To Our Research Lineup:
The Weekly Wrap-Up

We made a new addition to our research lineup last week.  We call it the Weekly Wrap-Up, and thought you would be interested in seeing the inaugural report which appears below.

Weekly Wrap-Up is meant to be the companion report to our Monday morning Keys To This Week report, the latter which is our first look at the key price charts and data series across the US financial landscape that are most likely to affect your portfolio.  On Monday in Keys To This Week we tell you what to pay attention to and why, and on Friday in the Weekly Wrap-Up we show you what actually happened during the week and what it means for the following week.

Here is the report:


Weekly Wrap-Up: Friday, May 29th

Posted on: Friday, May 29th, 2015

Conclusion, Investment Implications, Strategy

The bellwether S&P 500 heads into next week at a near term balance point, from which its 2015 advance must quickly resume if still valid, but formidable overhead resistance in the NASDAQ Composite Index (COMP), a bearish chart pattern in the German DAX, and 2nd Quarter seasonality all warn of a bearish resolution.  This is not a sell signal for the US market as the trend is still positive and there are unmet upside targets in some indexes 2% to 5% above the market, but rather a near term inflection point to be aware of — and an area to have a defensive plan in mind in case things turn south next week.

Analysis and Rationale

The US Stock Market

From Monday’s Keys To This Week for the US Stock Market (access requires subscription):

“Despite unmet targets 2% to 5% above the market in the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) and Russell 2000 (RUT) Indexes, a list of market factors including Dow Theory, extreme complacency according to the VIX, an extreme in the CBOE Put/Call Ratio, and near term overbought conditions are all characteristic of near term US stock market peaks.  The most likely trigger to a near term pullback/correction this week is secular overhead resistance less than 1% above the market at 5133 in the NASDAQ Composite Index (COMP)…”

Chart 1 shows that the COMP is trading at 5095 this morning, just below its 5133 March 2000 all-time high. This chart continues to be a market-negative factor heading into next week as technology stocks typically lead the US broad market both higher and lower.

Chart 1

In Monday’s report we also pointed out a bearish chart pattern in the German DAX Index, which is positively correlated to the S&P 500, and said that it targeted an additional 4% decline to 11,000 that would remain valid below the 50-day MA, currently at 11,821.  The highlighted area in Chart 2 shows that the DAX tested and is failing from that level, which is another potential negative for the US market heading into next week.

Chart 2

Another factor to be aware of heading into next week is that this was the 2nd seasonally strongest week of the entire 2nd Quarter in the S&P 500 based on data since 1957, as shown in Chart 3 below, after which the US broad market index historically slumps into quarter end.

Chart 3

Chart 4 below shows that the S&P 500’s 1-month rate-of-change (MROC) heads into today’s session right on top if its zero line.  This represents a near term balance point for the US broad market index from which its larger 2015 advance must resume — if still valid.

Chart 4

The negative bias of the charts above warn that this metric is vulnerable to turning negative next week which, if it does, would suggest that a US broad market pullback/correction is beginning.


Asbury Research subscribers can view our most recent recent research by logging into the Research Center.

Interested Investors can request more information about our independent investment research, including sample reports and service and pricing options, by either completing the Contact Us Form or by calling us at 1-224-569-4112.


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