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Asbury Research provides a top down macro analysis of the US financial landscape to financial professionals, including Financial Advisors and Registered Investment Advisors, based on a broad array of technical, quantitative and behavioral inputs.
Our focus is on the US markets, but our scope is global as we utilize our own database of intermarket relationships to determine where asset prices may be headed domestically based on correlated markets overseas. This approach provides us with more inputs, which helps us to be more consistently correct on market direction.
Asbury Research has no affiliations with broker-dealers, banks, or other financial institutions. Our sole objective, and how we get paid, is to provide our subscribers with investment ideas that either make money or avoid losing money.
John Kosar, Director of Research began his career in the Chicago futures pits in the 1980s, which turned out to be an incubator for his integrated intermarket approach and “under the hood” understanding of how financial markets work.
Clear, Actionable Investment Ideas:
Asbury Research gives conclusions. We are strategic 1-2 quarters out and tactical within 30 days. This means that we provide our subscribers with actionable intra-month buy and sell ideas that attempt to capture 70% or more of an intermediate term price trend.
Comprehensive Macro Scope:
We are not bottom-up stock pickers, but rather utilize an integrated top-down macro approach that produces integrated, cross-checked strategies for the US stock market, US market sectors, US interest rates, the US Dollar, and alternative investments like commodities and REITs. We utilize ETFs to provide specific, actionable investment ideas in all of these assets.
Quantitative / Technical Process:
Our investment strategies are based on objective, repeatable metrics including investor asset flows, statistical relationships between various domestic and global financial asset prices, and price patterns that have consistently repeated themselves throughout history – rather than vague, anecdotal opinions on the latest economic data or geopolitical conflict.
Asbury Research’s stock market sector research is based on our own in-house metrics that: 1) first define historically over-invested and under-invested US market sectors based on ETF asset flows, 2) then look for asset flows to support a move back towards historical norms of investment and, finally, 3) overlay price momentum-based metrics to confirm that the expected price move in the sector is actually underway.
Our Correction Protection Model (CPM) for the US stock market has captured 1,170 basis points in the S&P 500 from 2007 through Q2 2015 (+82%), almost doubling the S&P 500’s 645 basis point rise (+45%) during the same period by simply avoiding downturns. Moreover, CPM has produced this performance with half the volatility of returns in the S&P 500, and without using any leverage, short positions, or derivatives. Our model is binary — it is either in the market or out of it — and outperforms by simply being invested when stock prices are going up and not being invested when they are going down.
Our Clients Love Us:
One of many client testimonials:
“Asbury Research is our most balanced and detailed research tool. John (Kosar, Asbury’s Investment Strategist) looks at the markets with a macro view, taking into account a host of factors for each asset and situation. We’ve worked with a lot of people who have a very narrow view of the markets, and who seem more interested in hiding their secret sauce or hedging their advice than in providing real value in investment analysis, which is why John is so refreshing. And perhaps most valuable of all, John Kosar focuses on tracking leading indicators, not lagging indicators, and turning them into actionable signals. We look forward to our future in partnership with Asbury Research.””
Independent Financial Advisor, St. Paul Minnesota
Contact us via email at firstname.lastname@example.org or by phone at 1-888-960-0005 to get further information pertaining to pricing and services. Sample reports/research trials are available.
China’s Hang Seng Index declined to as low as 25,618 overnight to meet our 26,000 initial downside target first mentioned in our June 22nd Keys To This Week report, capturing a 1,081 point, 4% decline in 1 week.
Here is the chart from our June 22nd report.
Chart 9 from the June 22nd Keys To This Week
Here is the current chart updated through June 29th. During the same period, positively correlated S&P 500 futures have declined by 40 points or 2%.
Hang Seng Index daily through June 29th 2015
We closed out our November 12th long bias in Cisco Systems (CSCO) today to capture a $3.06 per share, 12% rise in the stock in almost 8 months. The S&P 500 rose by just 3% during the same period.
We have been closing tracking CSCO for a number of reasons including its relatively large market cap, comprising 3.5% of the Technology Sector, and its positive correlation to the market-leading NASDAQ 100 Index.
Back on Nov. 12, John Kosar appeared on the “Talking Numbers” segment of CNBC’s “Street Signs” to discuss Asbury Research’s forecast and outlook for CSCO just about two hours before the tech bellwether reported its fiscal first quarter earnings, and targeted a move to $32 by the middle of 2015. CSCO subsequently rose by $25.11 per share or 21% into the March 2nd high, but the stock has been stuck in neutral since then.
Asbury Research Subscribers: Our latest analysis and new price target for Cisco Systems (CSCO) are available in today’s (June 26th) Weekly Wrap-Up, which you can access by logging into the Research Center.
The chart below is one of twelve that are included in this week’s Keys To This Week report. Keys To This Week is one of 8 different reports that we produce for clients/subscribers at various intervals throughout the month.
It shows that the 3rd week of June, which is this week, is statistically the seasonally weakest week of the entire 2nd Quarter in the S&P 500 based on data since 1957.
It is followed by the 3rd seasonally weakest week of the quarter, which is next week.
Chart 1 of 12, Keys Of This Week for June 15th 2015
The red line shows that, also on average since 1957, the 3rd week of June has posted a negative weekly close 53% of the time, which is the highest incidence of a negative close for any week of the 2nd Quarter during this period.
Asbury Research subscribers can view the entire report, along with the rest of our premium research, by logging into the Research Center at www.asburyresearch.com.
The German DAX declined to as low as 10,865 yesterday, June 8th, to meet our 11,000 initial downside target first mentioned in our May 4th Keys To This Week report and capture a 620 point, 5% decline in about 5 weeks.
Here is the chart from our May 4th report.
Chart 5 from the May 4th Keys To This Week
Here is the current chart updated through June 9th. During the same period the positively correlated S&P 500 declined by 42 points or 2%.
German DAX daily through June 9th 2015
US Dollar/Japanese Yen (USDJPY) met our 125.50 initial upside target this morning (June 5th), which was first discussed in our January 26th Keys To This Week report (access requires subscription), to capture a 5% advance in a little more than 4 months.
From that report:
“Chart 6 shows that USDJPY has been in the midst of sideways investor indecision since December 8th, following a sustained uptrend since July 2014. These periods of investor indecision are typically resolved in the direction of the trend that preceded them, which in this case would be positive for USDJPY. A close above the pattern’s 119.85 upper boundary would confirm the resumption of its larger bullish trend and target an additional 5% rise to 125.50.”
Chart 6 of 12 from January 26th Keys To This Week
The next chart is a newly- updated version of the one from our January 26th report.
USDJPY daily through June 5th 2015
Asbury Research subscribers can view our latest research
by logging into the Research Center.
We made a new addition to our research lineup last week. We call it the Weekly Wrap-Up, and thought you would be interested in seeing the inaugural report which appears below.
Weekly Wrap-Up is meant to be the companion report to our Monday morning Keys To This Week report, the latter which is our first look at the key price charts and data series across the US financial landscape that are most likely to affect your portfolio. On Monday in Keys To This Week we tell you what to pay attention to and why, and on Friday in the Weekly Wrap-Up we show you what actually happened during the week and what it means for the following week.
Here is the report:
Weekly Wrap-Up: Friday, May 29th
Posted on: Friday, May 29th, 2015
Conclusion, Investment Implications, Strategy
The bellwether S&P 500 heads into next week at a near term balance point, from which its 2015 advance must quickly resume if still valid, but formidable overhead resistance in the NASDAQ Composite Index (COMP), a bearish chart pattern in the German DAX, and 2nd Quarter seasonality all warn of a bearish resolution. This is not a sell signal for the US market as the trend is still positive and there are unmet upside targets in some indexes 2% to 5% above the market, but rather a near term inflection point to be aware of — and an area to have a defensive plan in mind in case things turn south next week.
Analysis and Rationale
The US Stock Market
From Monday’s Keys To This Week for the US Stock Market (access requires subscription):
“Despite unmet targets 2% to 5% above the market in the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) and Russell 2000 (RUT) Indexes, a list of market factors including Dow Theory, extreme complacency according to the VIX, an extreme in the CBOE Put/Call Ratio, and near term overbought conditions are all characteristic of near term US stock market peaks. The most likely trigger to a near term pullback/correction this week is secular overhead resistance less than 1% above the market at 5133 in the NASDAQ Composite Index (COMP)…”
Chart 1 shows that the COMP is trading at 5095 this morning, just below its 5133 March 2000 all-time high. This chart continues to be a market-negative factor heading into next week as technology stocks typically lead the US broad market both higher and lower.
In Monday’s report we also pointed out a bearish chart pattern in the German DAX Index, which is positively correlated to the S&P 500, and said that it targeted an additional 4% decline to 11,000 that would remain valid below the 50-day MA, currently at 11,821. The highlighted area in Chart 2 shows that the DAX tested and is failing from that level, which is another potential negative for the US market heading into next week.
Another factor to be aware of heading into next week is that this was the 2nd seasonally strongest week of the entire 2nd Quarter in the S&P 500 based on data since 1957, as shown in Chart 3 below, after which the US broad market index historically slumps into quarter end.
Chart 4 below shows that the S&P 500’s 1-month rate-of-change (MROC) heads into today’s session right on top if its zero line. This represents a near term balance point for the US broad market index from which its larger 2015 advance must resume — if still valid.
The negative bias of the charts above warn that this metric is vulnerable to turning negative next week which, if it does, would suggest that a US broad market pullback/correction is beginning.
Asbury Research subscribers can view our most recent recent research by logging into the Research Center.
Interested Investors can request more information about our independent investment research, including sample reports and service and pricing options, by either completing the Contact Us Form or by calling us at 1-224-569-4112.
On Friday May 16th John Kosar appeared on the Trading Nation segment of CNBC’s Street Signs with host Brian Sullivan to discuss the future prospects for Wynn Resorts, Ltd. (WYNN).
With the stock trading at $107.50 per share, John called for an initial decline to $103.00.
WYNN met John’s $103.00 downside target less then 2 weeks later, on May 27th.
In addition to our top-down, macro analysis of the US financial landscape via 8 different reports throughout the month, and our Correction Protection Model for the S&P 500, we also make specific long and short market calls in individual assets.
The following is a list of links to some of our profitable market calls, year to date.
Asbury Research has services and pricing options to fit every firm and type of investor. Just complete the short Contact Us form or phone us at 888-960-0005 and we provide some research and pricing options for you or your firm.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) met our 93.75 initial downside target yesterday (May 13th), which was discussed in our May 4th Keys To This Week report (access requires subscription), to capture a 2% decline in the index in just over … Continue reading
The CBOT 10-Year Treasury Note met our 127-12 initial downside target yesterday (May 5th), which was discussed in our April 29th report entitled Are US Treasury Prices Peaking?, to capture a 1% decline in the contract in one week. During … Continue reading
Freeport-McMoRan met our $23.50 upside target on Friday April 30th by trading as high as $23.95 intraday. This target was first discussed in our April 16th report, entitled Recent Strength In FCX Positive For Copper Prices, to capture a $2.67 per share, 13% advance in just about 2 weeks.
Click the link to view the entire Research Excerpt / Email Alert. Continue reading
The London FTSE Index essentially met our 7,100 upside target on Friday April 10th by trading as high as 7095 intraday. This target was first discussed in our July 1st Keys To This Week report to capture a 787 point, 13% advance over the past 21 months.
Click the link to view the entire posting. Continue reading
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) traded as high as $137.41 today to meet our $137.00 upside target, first mentioned in our January 7th report entitled US 10-Year Note: Next Stop 1.88%?, to capture a $5.61, 4.3% gain in 3 weeks.
Click the link for the rest of this alert and the accompanying chart. Continue reading
The German DAX traded as high as 10,704 today to meet our 10,600 upside target first mentioned in our January 12th Keys To This Week (access requires subscription) and again in our January 13th report entitled What’s Driving US Stocks Today, to capture an 818 point, 8.4% rise in the index in less than 2 weeks.
Click the link to view the accompanying chart. Continue reading
The yield of the US 10-Year Treasury Note is currently trading at 1.82% this morning, meeting our 1.88% downside target first mentioned in our January 7th report entitled US 10-Year Note: Next Stop 1.88%? to capture an 8 bps decline in a week’s time.
Click the link to view the entire Alert. Continue reading
Learn more about our Correction Protection Model (CPM), which protects investors against market declines 1) without sacrificing performance and 2) while reducing volatility of returns by Clicking Here.
Click the link below to listen to John’s Kosar’s Thursday May 21st interview with Jim Puplava of the popular Financial Sense website, where John and Jim cover the entire US financial landscape including the bond market, which John believes is already pricing in a Federal Reserve rate hike.
John notes that investor asset flows in the US stock market have been anemic lately, and is advising clients to be cautious and to have a defensive plan in place as he believes a summer correction is likely.
Click the link below to listen to the interview, during which John also discusses potential opportunities in the Materials Sector, and in copper and gold
You can jump ahead to the 15:50 minute mark of the recording
to go directly to John’s interview.
Thanks to Jim Puplava and his staff for the invitation and another opportunity
to speak to his large and loyal following of professional and individual investors.