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Here we periodically publish a chart and a brief excerpt from one of our 8 research reports for the purpose of familiarizing potential subscribers/clients to our investment research, and to stay on the radar screen of those who have already expressed an interest in us.

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Professional investors can request a free trial of our premium research by clicking here and typing TRIAL REQUEST in the “how can we help you?” box.

If interested in an immediate subscription please email sales@asburyresearch.com or call 1-888-960-0005


How We Got In Front Of Today’s Fed-Fueled Rally

The following is a brief excerpt from our Wednesday March 18th report, entitled Asset Flows Heading Into Today’s Fed Statement, which was sent to clients as the US stock market opened this morning.

The type of report, which we call What We’re Watching Today, is one of 8 different reports that we produce for subscribers throughout the month. WWWT is a typically a pre-market opening report, taken directly from our dynamic watch list of key markets and market factors that we we use to identify important changes in market conditions and direction.


What We’re Watching Today

Asset Flows Heading Into Today’s Fed Statement

Posted on: Wednesday, March 18th, 2015

Conclusion, Investment Implications, Strategy

Heading into the release of today’s Fed Statement at 2 pm ET today, investors appear to be collectively leaning towards the likelihood of more dovish/market bullish language by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as the total net assets invested in most key US stock market-related ETFs have been expanding since March 6th to March 13th.

Analysis and Rationale

Investor asset flows tend to slightly lead directional movement in the price of an asset because they “fuel” that move, either by expanding to drive prices assets higher or by contracting which causes prices to decline. The following 6 charts indicate how investors are collectively leaning, direction-wise, heading into today’s FOMC’s meeting announcement at 2 pm ET today.

S&P 500 SPDR ETF (SPY)

The green highlights in Chart 2 below show that the outstanding shares in SPY have also recently reversed upward, on March 11th, just as they previously did on January 30th, December 16th, October 21st, and August 8th, all which closely coincided with near bottoms in SPY.

Chart 2

Chart 2

In addition, these outstanding shares have also risen back above their 21-day moving average as of yesterday (March 17th), indicating that a new trend of monthly expansion is beginning. This is typically positive for SPY.

>>>continued


The S&P 500 (SPX) traded as much as 13.05 points lower at 2061.23 today, shortly before the Fed Statement was released, and subsequently rose by 38.19 points or or 2% to close at 2099.42.  Our Correction Protection Model remains on a February 9th buy signal.

Asbury Research Subscribers: Login to the Research Center to view our latest research, including the rest of today’s report.

Interested Investors can request more information about our independent investment research services, including a sample report, by either completing the Contact Us Form or calling us at 1-800-960-0005.


John Kosar’s March 6th Interview: Financial Sense

Click the link below to listen to John’s Kosar’s Thursday March 6th interview with Ryan Puplava of the popular Financial Sense website, where John and Ryan discuss Asbury Research’s: 

  • near to intermediate term US stock market outlook,
  • 2015 forecast for US interest rates,
  • picks for upcoming relative outperformance in US stock market sectors, and
  • 2015 outlook for economically-influential commodity prices like crude oil, copper, and gold.

Click Here To Listen To The Interview

You can jump ahead to the 40:00 minute mark of the recording
to go directly to John’s interview.

 

Thanks to Jim Puplava and his staff for the invitation and another opportunity
to speak to his large and loyal following of professional and individual investors.

 


Sector Investing: Is This Winning Sector Played Out?

Our sector rotation model utilizes a combination of proprietary ETF asset flow and price momentum metrics that indicate which sectors of the S&P 500 are under-invested or over-invested, and how to profit from these conditions.

In a report to subscribers on December 1st, we pointed out that the percentage of sector bet-related assets being allocated to the Consumer Discretionary sector had risen above their 63-day moving average, indicating an emerging new trend of quarterly expansion that suggested a new opportunity to overweight the sector.

Here is one of the charts from our December 1st report.

From Asbury Research's December 1st Keys To This Week report

From Asbury Research’s December 1st Keys To This Week report

The next graph shows that Consumer Discretionary has been the top performing sector over the past 3 months, and has also outperformed the S&P 500 by 5.5% during this period.

Sector SPDR Performance: Past 3 Months

Select Sector SPDR Performance: Past 3 Months

The next chart, updated through the end of February, is our own metric that shows Consumer Discretionary is currently the most over-invested sector of the S&P 500, comprising 9% of all ETF-related sector bets compared with just 5% historically.

Over-invested/Under-invested Sectors Through February 2014

Over-invested/Under-invested Sectors Through February 2014: Asbury Research

This chart warns that, despite recent outright and relative outperformance, this profitable investment idea may be getting “played out” and vulnerable to upcoming weakness/relative sector underperformance.

Our latest sector-related research can be found in our weekly Keys To This Week report, our monthly Sector Watch report, and in Asbury Alerts when there is a directional change in our model.

 Asbury Research Subscribers: Login to the Research Center to view our latest research, which includes more in-depth information and corresponding charts and data pertaining to US market sectors and our sector rotation model.


Correction Protection Model: Performance Update

The table below includes newly-updated, more comprehensive performance data through December 2014 for our “Correction Protection Model” (CPM).

We back-tested the model from 2007 forward during a period that includes uptrends, downtrends, and sideways trends.  It has been running in real-time since September 2013.

Key Features:

  • Protects investors against market declines
  • without sacrificing performance under a variety of market conditions
  • while reducing volatility of returns.

Asbury Research’s Correction Protection Model (CPM)

Asbury Research's Correction Protection Model

click on table to enlarge

About CPM:

  • The model utilizes 4 quantitative inputs.
  • The model uses the S&P 500 as a proxy for the market.
  • The model is either long or neutral: no short positions, leveraged longs, or hedging via derivatives.
  • The model was designed to: 1) be in the market as much as possible, 3) exit on meaningful declines, and 4) quickly re-enter as soon as a positive trend has been reestablished.
  • Since 2007, the model has been in the market 74% of the time
  • Since 2007, the model has averaged 3.9 signals per year or approximately 1 per quarter.

Click Here for more charts and information pertaining to the Correction Protection Model.

 


Which investors were ahead of the “Oil Price” decline?

Published February 19th 2015 by Harvest (HVST.com), a site where hedge fund managers and investors can post investment ideas and share their views.

Learn more about Harvest according to Business Insider.

Which investors were ahead of the “Oil Price” decline?

Yesterday, The Daily Crop revisited how Highland Capital took advantage of the move in oil prices, going long airlines before the drop in oil prices, and becoming bullish on the MLP space at new lower prices. Of course, plenty of other investment firms made calls on oil as well. Let’s look at a few:

John Kosar of Asbury Research is no stranger to large technical prices moves either. Back in August 2014, Kosar explained how Asbury caught the first leg down in oil from $112 to $103, and why they though it wasn’t over yet. Yes, $103 was not the low… Good call Mr. Kosar.

While Cathleen Rittereiser may not be an oil expert herself, Harvest was lucky enough to see the results from her recent Think Tank, where Rittereiser hosted a panel of Energy experts and asset managers who gathered to learn, apply and brainstorm the opportunities and implications of the Energy Revolution in a workshop organized by Uncorrelated, LLC. The Report from The Investment Lab: High Powered, The Energy Revolution documents the results, and recaps the experts’ remarks.

continued>>>

Asbury Research Subscribers: Login to the Research Center to view our latest research, which includes more in-depth information and corresponding charts and data pertaining to US market sectors and our sector rotation model.


Asbury’s Correction Protection Model: Performance Update

The chart below shows updated performance through January 2015 for the Asbury Research trend model for the S&P 500, which we now call the “Correction Protection Model” (CPM)  because it’s purpose is to simply stay invested in the stock market as much as possible while avoiding significant declines.

We back-tested the model from 2007 forward because this period includes both uptrends, downtrends, and sideways trends.  It has been been running in real-time since September 2013. The graph below details how the model has fared during this 8 year period, both outright and relative to the S&P 500, through January 2015.

.This data is provided for information purposes only. Past performance or back-tested results may not necessarily indicate future results. The performance indicated from back-testing or historical track record may not be typical of future performance. No inferences may be made and no guarantees of profitability are being stated by Asbury Research LLC. The risk of loss trading in financial assets can be substantial. Therefore, you should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

US Stock Market Trend Model: “Correction Protection Model” (CPM)

Key Features & Objectives

  • The model utilizes 3 quantitative inputs.
  • The model uses the S&P 500 as a proxy for the market.
  • The model is either long or neutral: no short positions, leveraged longs, or hedging via derivatives.
  • The model was constructed with the objectives of: 1) being in the market as much as possible, 3) exiting on meaningful declines, and 4) quickly re-entering as soon as a positive trend has been reestablished.
  • Since 2007, the model has averaged 3.9 signals per year or approximately 1 per quarter.

The chart above, updated through January 2014, shows that the Asbury Research Correction Protection Model has accumulated 1169 points since January 2007 versus 577 points for the S&P 500, with a significant reduction in the volatility of returns.  In percentage terms, the model has produced an 82% return during this 8 year period versus a 41% return by the S&P 500.

New, more detailed performance data is being compiled and will be available soon.

More information about the Correction Protection Model is available by Clicking Here.


NEW! Intermediate Term Global Market Outlook

Asbury Research’s strategic outlook typically looks 1-2 quarters ahead, after which we overlay intra-month tactical positioning within that larger strategic view.

Because our strategic outlook does not change from day to day, and the tactical part of what we do often requires more frequent research because it is much more fluid — and a big part of our job is to keep clients informed on what to watch out for, before it happensnew users often incorrectly assume that we are focused on short term trading.

Although some of our hedge fund clients are indeed focused on more near term market moves, our mission is to help clients/subscribers to correctly identify actionable entry and entry levels within a larger intermediate term forecast because, as anyone who has been investing for a while knows, it is very easy to get the bigger picture right and still lose money due to poor tactical execution.

To make our intermediate term outlook more readily accessible, we have added a new feature to the Research Center of our website.  Just login to the Research Center, then click the large green button at the very top of the page, entitled Asbury’s Intermediate Term Outlook: Global Asset Prices, which will include the time and date of the most recent update.

This is a new, permanent addition to our services that will be updated only when there are significant changes in our strategic view, and will help our clients integrate the bigger strategic plan with the more tactical influences and triggers that we frequently display and discuss in our various research reports and alerts.

Contact us anytime with questions at support@asburyresearch.com or 1-888-960-0005.


TLT Meets Our $137.00 Target

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) traded as high as $137.41 today to meet our $137.00  upside target,  first mentioned in our January 7th report entitled US 10-Year Note: Next Stop 1.88%? (access requires subscription), to capture a $5.61, 4.3% gain in 3 weeks.

The yield of the benchmark US 10-Year Treasury Note has coincidentally declined by 24 bps to 1.72% during the same 3-week period.

TLT daily since November 2014
TLT daily since November 2014

NEW!  Asbury Research’s bigger picture Intermediate Term (1-2 quarter) Outlook for global asset prices including US equities, US market sectors, global equities, US interest rates, commodity prices, and the US Dollar is available by logging into the Research Center.


John Kosar’s January 22 Interview: Financial Sense

Click the link below to listen to John’s Kosar’s Thursday January 22nd 2015 interview with James Puplava of the popular Financial Sense website, where John and Jim discuss Asbury Research‘s outlook for:

  • the 2015 direction of the US stock market,
  • the 2015 direction of US interest rates,
  • the US stock market sectors poised for relative outperformance during 2015, and
  • the prospects for under-loved gold prices during H1 2015.

Click Here To Listen To The Interview

 

Thanks to Jim Puplava and his staff for the invitation and another opportunity
to speak to his large and loyal following of professional and individual investors.

 


German DAX Meets Our 10,600 Target

The German DAX traded as high as 10,704 today to meet our 10,600 upside target first mentioned in our January 12th Keys To This Week (access requires subscription) and again in our January 13th report entitled What’s Driving US Stocks Today, to capture an 818 point, 8.4% rise in the index in less than 2 weeks.

German DAX daily since October 2014

German DAX daily since October 2014


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