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Here we periodically publish a chart and a brief excerpt from one of our 8 research reports for the purpose of familiarizing potential subscribers/clients to our investment research, and to stay on the radar screen of those who have already expressed an interest in us.

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If interested in an immediate subscription please email sales@asburyresearch.com or call 1-888-960-0005


The Weekly Wrap-Up: September 23rd, 2016

The following is a brief excerpt from Friday’s Weekly Recap report, one of many different reports that we produce for Asbury Research subscribers every month.

The Weekly Wrap-Up: September 23rd, 2016

Posted on: Friday, September 23rd, 2016

From Monday’s Keys To This Week Report:

The past week’s stability / strength in the S&P 500 (SPX) is a direct result of its test of a band of underlying support at 2121 to 2104, which we have been pointing out in various reports for the past several weeks as the first formidable level below the market.  This support, which is easy to spot on the charts, has apparently attracted the “buy the dip” crowd.  Internally, however, the market still looks vulnerable over the near term…”

Keys To This Week
Asbury Research
Tuesday, September 19th 2016

Most ETF Asset Flows Have Turned Positive Again…

The lower panel of Chart 1 below shows that the daily total net assets invested in the Power Shares QQQ ETF, which tracks the NASDAQ 100 (NDX, upper panel), rose back above their 21-day moving average on Thursday and Friday to indicate an emerging trend of monthly expansion that is characteristic of near term price advances in this market-leading index.

Chart 1

Chart 1

This is the single most influential metric on day-to-day US stock market direction, and right now it is positive (bullish).

…But Investors Are Too Complacent To Launch A Sustainable Advance

The highlighted red circle in the lower panel of Chart 2 below points out that the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) finished this week at 12.29 after trading as low as 11.76 on Thursday (Sept 22nd).  The red vertical highlights between both panels show that previous instances of a 12.00 VIX have either coincided with or closely preceded literally every near term peak in the S&P 500 over the past two years, most recently the one in mid August.

continued>>>

Subscribers can log in to the Research Center to view the rest of the report and additional 3 charts.

The Weekly Wrap-Up , which is sent to subscribers every Friday, discusses what happened during the past week in the US stock market and why, what it means for the following week‘s market activity, and how it fits into our intermediate term, 1-2 quarter investment strategy.  Clients have told us that The Weekly Wrap-Up helps them to relax and enjoy the weekend more as  it includes a preview of what to expect in the upcoming week.

Asbury Research subscribers can view the entire report by logging into our Research Center.

Interested investors can request more information about us, including services, pricing and a sample report, by completing our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.

See what our clients are saying about us.


Semiconductors: 11% Of Relative Outperformance Since June. Still A Good Idea?

We occasionally publish excerpts from our premium research in an effort to stay on the radar of those who have expressed interest in Asbury Research.

Back on May 31st we published a research excerpt entitled Watch Semiconductors For Leadership This Summer.  Now that summer’s over, this is a good time to revisit that report.

In that My 31st research excerpt we pointed out that the PHLX Semiconductor (SOX) Index had just edged above a major overhead resistance level and said it signaled an intermediate term bullish breakout in this market leading index.  We said that a sustained rise above 693 in the SOX would be seen as a coincident or leading indication of a similar positive move in the US broad market.

Moreover, since semiconductors tend to lead the US broad market both higher and lower, we suggested buying semiconductors as a means to outperform the S&P 500 over the summer.

Since then, the SOX has risen by 15.2% to 699 while the benchmark S&P 500 has risen by just 2.2% to 2143.

The chart below shows this recent relative outperformance from am ETF standpoint.  The blue line in the upper panel plots the daily relative performance of the SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD, StateStreet’s version of the SOX Index) versus the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) daily since January, with a corresponding bar chart of XSD in the lower panel.

Relative Performance: Semiconductors vs. The S&P 500 since January

Relative Performance: Semiconductors vs. The S&P 500

The green highlights show that XSD has outperformed SPY by 11% during that same May 31st to September 19th period.

One important thing to remember, though — semiconductors tend to outperform during broad market rallies, but also underperform during broad market declines — so the knife cuts both waysBeing overweight semis during a downturn can be just as destructive to your portfolio as being overweight them has been beneficial to our subscribers’ portfolios over the summer.

Asbury Research subscribers can view our current analysis on semiconductors and the overall US stock market, including our latest individual stock picks, by logging into our Research Center.

Interested investors can request more information about us, including services, pricing and sample research, by completing our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.


What 40 Years Of History Say About Oil Prices Into Year End

The following is one of 24 charts from our September 2016 Global Seasonal Analysis report.

Global Seasonal Analysis, one of 9 different reports that we produce for subscribers, is a monthly report that displays and analyzes annual, quarterly and monthly seasonal trends for 17 global asset prices including equities, benchmark interest rates, foreign exchange, and key commodity prices based on historical data going back to the 1950s.

The following is an excerpt from this month’s report.

Crude Oil Monthly Seasonal Pattern Since 1977

The green bar on the chart at upper right on the previous page highlights September as the 5th seasonally strongest month of the year for West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices based on data since 1977.  It represents a one-month segue between the 2nd seasonally strongest month of the year, August, and the three weakest months of the year in October, November and December.

Chart 19 of 24

Chart 19 of 24

The height of the green bar indicates that, on average since 1977, crude oil prices have risen by 1.17% in September.  The red line shows that oil prices closely tracked their 40-year annual seasonal pattern during 2015.

continued>>>

Asbury Research subscribers can view our current research on the US stock market and market sectors, US interest rates, the US Dollar, and commodities by logging into the Research Center via the big gold button in the upper right corner of the screen.

Interested investors can request more information about us, including sample research, services and pricing, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.


Correction Protection Model (CPM):
Q2 2016 Performance Update

The table and chart below below display updated performance data through June 2016 for our Correction Protection Model (CPM).

Purpose & Key Features:

  • Defensive, quantitatively-driven model that
  • protects investors against market declines
  • without sacrificing long term performance under a variety of market conditions
  • while greatly reducing volatility of returns.

Back-Tested Returns (excluding dividends)

Back-tested since the start of 2007 and running in real time since September 2013, the Correction Protection Model (CPM) has had a 13.8% CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) with a volatility (standard deviation on a rolling 90 day basis) of 10.71%.  During the same period the S&P 500 has had a CAGR of 6.1% with volatility of 20.72%.

This means CPM is producing a significantly better return than SPX with half the volatility.

Further, Table 1 below shows the Reward/Risk Ratio (CAGR/volatility; a modified Sharpe Ratio) over a rolling 90 day period is 1.29 for CPM versus 0.29 for SPX.  The table also indicates that the average return of CPM on a rolling 90 day basis since 2007 has been 3.55% compared to 1.97% for SPX.

The model’s performance is directly attributable to its ability to limit downside risk as can be seen in CPM’s maximum drawdown of -9.81% on a rolling 90 day basis versus a maximum drawdown of -39.93% for SPX.

Correction Protection Model (CPM) statistical performance vs. S&P 500: 2007-Q1 2016

Chart 1

Table 1

click on table to enlarge

CPM Outperforms The S&P 500

Chart 1 below shows that $100 invested in CPM at the beginning of 2007 was worth $234 by the end of Q2 2016.  $100 invested in SPX was worth $147 during the same period.

Chart 1

Chart 1

click on table to enlarge

Interested investors can learn more about our research services, including the Correction Protection Model,  by completing an information request or by calling 1-888-960-0005.

This data is provided for information purposes only. Past performance or back-tested results may not necessarily indicate future results. The performance indicated from back-testing or historical track record may not be typical of future performance. No inferences may be made and no guarantees of profitability are being stated by Asbury Research LLC. The risk of loss trading in financial assets can be substantial. Therefore, you should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.


John Kosar’s August 18th 2016 Interview: Financial Sense

Click the link below to listen to John’s Kosar’s Thursday August 18th interview with Jim Puplava of the popular Financial Sense website.

John Kosar: Market Way Too Complacent – Don’t Chase New Highs

[jwplayer mediaid=”39300″]

Jim welcomes back John Kosar CMT, Chief Investment Strategist at Asbury Research LLC. John is currently looking for a market pull-back in the 4-7% range. He sees a fat and happy market, with the VIX stuck around 12 for many weeks. He believes this is not the time to put new money to work. In addition, September is historically the weakest month of the year in the markets. Shorter term, he sees the Brexit lows as the “line in the sand” and if those lows hold in a pull-back, you can expect a rapid recovery. Longer term John is more optimistic and sees the S&P 500 up by 10-15% within the next year or so. John also discusses gold and interest rates and introduces a special research package for individual investors.

In John Kosar’s previous June 9th interview by Financial Sense, he made 8 separate forecasts in various financial markets.  Click Here To See How They Turned Out

 

Asbury Research subscribers can view our current research on the US stock market and market sectors, US interest rates, the US Dollar, and commodities by logging into the Research Center via the big gold button in the upper right corner of the screen.

Interested investors can request more information about us, including sample research, services and pricing, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.

Thanks to Jim Puplava and his staff for the invitation and another opportunity to speak to his large and loyal following of professional and individual investors.


Upside Target Met In Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HKHS)

The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HKHS) met our initial 23,000 upside target today, which was first mentioned in the July 25th Keys To This Week report (access requires subscription), to capture a 1007 point, 5% rise in about 3 weeks.

Hong Kong Hang Seng daily since January

Hong Kong Hang Seng daily since January

We are interested in the Hang Seng because of its long term positive correlation to the S&P 500, the latter which has coincidentally risen by 32 points or 1.5% during the same 3-week period.

S&P 500 vs. Hang Seng daily since

S&P 500 vs. Hang Seng daily since 2000

We also have a secondary upside target in the Hang Seng that is available to Asbury Research subscribers in our most recent Monday August 15th Keys To This Week report for the US stock market.

To non-subscribers:  If you believe the ideas and information listed above could help your own investing become more profitable, then we invite you to request more information about us, including services and pricing, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.

 


Upside Target Met In EEM

The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund (EEM) came within $0.16 of meeting our $37.50 target today, which was first mentioned in the August 1st Keys To This Week report (access requires subscription), to capture a 3% rise in the ETF in a little over a week.

Here is the chart from that August 1st report.

EEM daily through Friday July 29th

EEM daily through Friday July 29th

Here is the chart updated through this morning (August 10th).

EEM through midday

EEM through mid morning today (August 10th)

Asbury Research subscribers can view our current research on the US and global stock markets and related ETFs, as well as US interest rates,the US Dollar, and commodity markets, by logging into the Research Center via the big gold button in the upper right corner of the screen.

To non-subscribers:  If you believe the ideas and information listed above could help your own investing become more profitable, then we invite you to request more information about us, including services and pricing, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.


Upside Target Met In Steel ETF (SLX)

The VanEck Vectors Steel ETF (SLX) has traded as high as $32.82 today, essentially meeting our $33.00 target that was first mentioned in our July 12th Keys To This Week report (access requires subscription) to capture a 7% rise in the ETF in a little less than a month.

We actually first mentioned SLX as an emerging buying opportunity in the May 23rd Keys To This Week report when it was trading at $24.53.  The ETF has risen by 34% since then.

Here is the chart from that May 23rd report.

Chart 2 from the May 23rd 2016 Keys To This Week

Chart 2 from the May 23rd 2016 Keys To This Week

Here is the chart updated through midday today (August 8th).

SLX through midday on August 8th

SLX through midday on August 8th

 

Asbury Research subscribers can view our current research on the US stock market and market sectors, US interest rates,the US Dollar, and commodity markets like XME shown above by logging into the Research Center via the big gold button in the upper right corner of the screen.

To non-subscribers:  If you believe the ideas and information listed above could help your own investing become more profitable, then we invite you to request more information about us, including services and pricing, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.


Video Preview: Keys To This Week for
The US Stock Market, August 1st 2016

Click the video icon below for a 2 minute video overview of this week’s Keys To this Week report for the US stock market, which was distributed to Asbury Research subscribers earlier this morning.

Keys To This Week displays and discusses 10 key market factors that are most likely to influence the direction of the US stock market.  Asbury Research subscribers also receive separate Keys To This Week reports for US market sectors, US interest rates, alternative investments/commodities/ETFs and the US Dollar.

This report includes the current signal of our Correction Protection Model, which protects investors against market declines and greatly reduces volatility of returns without sacrificing long term performance.



Asbury Research subscribers can view the entire report by logging into our Research Center.

Interested investors can request more information about us, including services, pricing and a sample copy of this  report, by completing our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.


Upside Target Met In Cummins, Inc. (CMI)

Diesel and natural gas engine designer, manufacturer and distributor Cummins, Inc. (CMI) met our $124.00 target today (July 27th) to capture a $10.30 per share, 9.1% gain in the 3 1/2 months since we initially discussed it as a long idea (access requires subscription) on April 13th.

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Asbury Research subscribers can view our current research on the US stock market and market sectors, US interest rates,the US Dollar, and commodity markets like XME shown above by logging into the Research Center via the big gold button in the upper right corner of the screen.

To non-subscribers:  If you believe the ideas and information listed above could help your own investing become more profitable, then we invite you to request more information about us, including services and pricing, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.


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