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Sample Research

Here we periodically publish a chart and a brief excerpt from one of our 8 research reports for the purpose of familiarizing potential subscribers/clients to our investment research, and to stay on the radar screen of those who have already expressed an interest in us.

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Professional investors can request a free trial of our premium research by clicking here and typing TRIAL REQUEST in the “how can we help you?” box.

If interested in an immediate subscription please email or call 1-888-960-0005

Correction Protection Model: Performance Update

The table below includes newly-updated, more comprehensive performance data through December 2014 for our “Correction Protection Model” (CPM).

We back-tested the model from 2007 forward during a period that includes uptrends, downtrends, and sideways trends.  It has been running in real-time since September 2013.

Key Features:

  • Protects investors against market declines
  • without sacrificing performance under a variety of market conditions
  • while reducing volatility of returns.

Asbury Research’s Correction Protection Model (CPM)

Asbury Research's Correction Protection Model

click on table to enlarge

About CPM:

  • The model utilizes 4 quantitative inputs.
  • The model uses the S&P 500 as a proxy for the market.
  • The model is either long or neutral: no short positions, leveraged longs, or hedging via derivatives.
  • The model was designed to: 1) be in the market as much as possible, 3) exit on meaningful declines, and 4) quickly re-enter as soon as a positive trend has been reestablished.
  • Since 2007, the model has been in the market 74% of the time
  • Since 2007, the model has averaged 3.9 signals per year or approximately 1 per quarter.

Click Here for more charts and information pertaining to the Correction Protection Model.



Which investors were ahead of the “Oil Price” decline?

Published February 19th 2015 by Harvest (, a site where hedge fund managers and investors can post investment ideas and share their views.

Learn more about Harvest according to Business Insider.

Which investors were ahead of the “Oil Price” decline?

Yesterday, The Daily Crop revisited how Highland Capital took advantage of the move in oil prices, going long airlines before the drop in oil prices, and becoming bullish on the MLP space at new lower prices. Of course, plenty of other investment firms made calls on oil as well. Let’s look at a few:

John Kosar of Asbury Research is no stranger to large technical prices moves either. Back in August 2014, Kosar explained how Asbury caught the first leg down in oil from $112 to $103, and why they though it wasn’t over yet. Yes, $103 was not the low… Good call Mr. Kosar.

While Cathleen Rittereiser may not be an oil expert herself, Harvest was lucky enough to see the results from her recent Think Tank, where Rittereiser hosted a panel of Energy experts and asset managers who gathered to learn, apply and brainstorm the opportunities and implications of the Energy Revolution in a workshop organized by Uncorrelated, LLC. The Report from The Investment Lab: High Powered, The Energy Revolution documents the results, and recaps the experts’ remarks.


Asbury Research Subscribers: Login to the Research Center to view our latest research, which includes more in-depth information and corresponding charts and data pertaining to US market sectors and our sector rotation model.

Asbury’s Correction Protection Model: Performance Update

The chart below shows updated performance through January 2015 for the Asbury Research trend model for the S&P 500, which we now call the “Correction Protection Model” (CPM)  because it’s purpose is to simply stay invested in the stock market as much as possible while avoiding significant declines.

We back-tested the model from 2007 forward because this period includes both uptrends, downtrends, and sideways trends.  It has been been running in real-time since September 2013. The graph below details how the model has fared during this 8 year period, both outright and relative to the S&P 500, through January 2015.

.This data is provided for information purposes only. Past performance or back-tested results may not necessarily indicate future results. The performance indicated from back-testing or historical track record may not be typical of future performance. No inferences may be made and no guarantees of profitability are being stated by Asbury Research LLC. The risk of loss trading in financial assets can be substantial. Therefore, you should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

US Stock Market Trend Model: “Correction Protection Model” (CPM)

Key Features & Objectives

  • The model utilizes 3 quantitative inputs.
  • The model uses the S&P 500 as a proxy for the market.
  • The model is either long or neutral: no short positions, leveraged longs, or hedging via derivatives.
  • The model was constructed with the objectives of: 1) being in the market as much as possible, 3) exiting on meaningful declines, and 4) quickly re-entering as soon as a positive trend has been reestablished.
  • Since 2007, the model has averaged 3.9 signals per year or approximately 1 per quarter.

The chart above, updated through January 2014, shows that the Asbury Research Correction Protection Model has accumulated 1169 points since January 2007 versus 577 points for the S&P 500, with a significant reduction in the volatility of returns.  In percentage terms, the model has produced an 82% return during this 8 year period versus a 41% return by the S&P 500.

New, more detailed performance data is being compiled and will be available soon.

More information about the Correction Protection Model is available by Clicking Here.

NEW! Intermediate Term Global Market Outlook

Asbury Research’s strategic outlook typically looks 1-2 quarters ahead, after which we overlay intra-month tactical positioning within that larger strategic view.

Because our strategic outlook does not change from day to day, and the tactical part of what we do often requires more frequent research because it is much more fluid — and a big part of our job is to keep clients informed on what to watch out for, before it happensnew users often incorrectly assume that we are focused on short term trading.

Although some of our hedge fund clients are indeed focused on more near term market moves, our mission is to help clients/subscribers to correctly identify actionable entry and entry levels within a larger intermediate term forecast because, as anyone who has been investing for a while knows, it is very easy to get the bigger picture right and still lose money due to poor tactical execution.

To make our intermediate term outlook more readily accessible, we have added a new feature to the Research Center of our website.  Just login to the Research Center, then click the large green button at the very top of the page, entitled Asbury’s Intermediate Term Outlook: Global Asset Prices, which will include the time and date of the most recent update.

This is a new, permanent addition to our services that will be updated only when there are significant changes in our strategic view, and will help our clients integrate the bigger strategic plan with the more tactical influences and triggers that we frequently display and discuss in our various research reports and alerts.

Contact us anytime with questions at or 1-888-960-0005.

TLT Meets Our $137.00 Target

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) traded as high as $137.41 today to meet our $137.00  upside target,  first mentioned in our January 7th report entitled US 10-Year Note: Next Stop 1.88%? (access requires subscription), to capture a $5.61, 4.3% gain in 3 weeks.

The yield of the benchmark US 10-Year Treasury Note has coincidentally declined by 24 bps to 1.72% during the same 3-week period.

TLT daily since November 2014
TLT daily since November 2014

NEW!  Asbury Research’s bigger picture Intermediate Term (1-2 quarter) Outlook for global asset prices including US equities, US market sectors, global equities, US interest rates, commodity prices, and the US Dollar is available by logging into the Research Center.

John Kosar’s January 22 Interview: Financial Sense

Click the link below to listen to John’s Kosar’s Thursday January 22nd 2015 interview with James Puplava of the popular Financial Sense website, where John and Jim discuss Asbury Research‘s outlook for:

  • the 2015 direction of the US stock market,
  • the 2015 direction of US interest rates,
  • the US stock market sectors poised for relative outperformance during 2015, and
  • the prospects for under-loved gold prices during H1 2015.

Click Here To Listen To The Interview


Thanks to Jim Puplava and his staff for the invitation and another opportunity
to speak to his large and loyal following of professional and individual investors.


German DAX Meets Our 10,600 Target

The German DAX traded as high as 10,704 today to meet our 10,600 upside target first mentioned in our January 12th Keys To This Week (access requires subscription) and again in our January 13th report entitled What’s Driving US Stocks Today, to capture an 818 point, 8.4% rise in the index in less than 2 weeks.

German DAX daily since October 2014

German DAX daily since October 2014

Webcast: Q1-Q2 2015 Market Outlook

Yesterday John Kosar, our Director of Research, presented a webinar for the Market Technicians Association (MTA) entitled “US Financial Update for January 2015“, which is a part of the MTA’s Educational Web Series from which members can earn 2 Continuing Education (CE) credits .

You can view the webinar by Clicking Here.


For the webinar, John used our most recent monthly US Financial Market Chart Book, which is one of 8 different reports that we produce for Asbury Research subscribers.

You can request a PDF of the presentation by emailing us at with “Webinar PDF” in the subject line.

John has been an MTA member for the past 25 years, during which time he served as Vice President and board member. The MTA is an invaluable resource for investors, professional and otherwise, to get practical, real-world information and tools that can protect your portfolio from adverse price moves — moves that often cannot be seen or anticipated by standard fundamental or economic analysis.

This is in no way meant to be a knock on these more traditional and necessary disciplines, but rather to point out an opportunity for savvy investors to “see the other side of the elephant” via tools like investor asset flows, investor sentiment, and global intermarket relationships, to name a few — tools that often give the earliest warnings of trouble ahead.

Accordingly, most Asbury Research clients are not “chart traders”, but rather professional money managers — many who are already experts in global economics and fundamental analysis and who are looking for “an edge” to work into their investment process. A quantitative/technical approach like the one Asbury Research employs can do just that.

Hope the webinar is interesting and informative. Thanks to the MTA for making it available on their site. If you like our approach and would like more information, please contact us at or 1-888-960-0005.

US 10-Year Yield Meets Our 1.88% Target

The yield of the US 10-Year Treasury Note is trading at 1.82% this morning, meeting our 1.88% downside target first mentioned in our January 7th report entitled US 10-Year Note: Next Stop 1.88%? (access requires subscription) to capture an 8 bps decline over the past 7 days.

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has coincidentally risen by $2.38 or 2% during the same 1 week period.

Today’s sharp decline in yield clears the way for a potential test of the next key level level at 1.66%, which is displayed and discussed in more detail in our January 7th report.

Why US Stocks Spiked Higher Today

The following is a brief excerpt from Monday’s (January 12th) Keys To this Week report, one of 8 different reports that we produce for clients at various intervals throughout the month.

While the financial media and many analysts seem to be focused — if not obsessed — on oil prices’ effect on US equity prices, we have been more keenly focused on European equity prices as global investors contemplate the introduction of quantitative easing by the European Central Bank (ECB).

Key #4 of 10 “keys” to US stock market direction listed in Monday’s report highlighted a potentially bullish breakout emerging in the German DAX Index, which we viewed as a potential leading indication of upcoming US market direction following 5 weeks of sideways trade.

The DAX broke out higher overnight in Europe and, as expected, the S&P 500 has subsequently risen by as much as 29 points thus far today.

Research Report: Keys To This Week
Date: January 12th, 2015
Topic: The US Stock Market

Key # 4 of 10> Intermarket Relationships: German DAX Index. TURNING NEAR TERM BULLISH? The blue highlights in Chart 3 below show that the DAX begins this week in the midst of a 5-week period of sideways investor indecision follow a strong advance from the mid October lows. Most of the time these patterns resolve themselves by resuming the bullish trend that preceded them which, in this case, would be confirmed by a sustained rise above the upper boundary at 9843 — which would then target an additional 8% rise.  Considering the tight and stable long term positive correlation between the DAX and S&P 500, we will view the resolution of this pattern as an indirect indication of upcoming US market direction.

Chart 3 of 12

Chart 3 of 12


This morning’s report is a good example of the kind of forward looking investment research that we have been providing Asbury Research subscribers with for the past 10 years.

Asbury Research subscribers can view Monday’s report in its entirety by logging into our Research Center.

Interested professional investors can request a 30-day research trial by contacting us via phone at 1-888-960-0005 or via email at

Here are 8 Reasons To Make Us Your Investment Research Provider In 2015.

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