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Watch The Smart Money In The US Dollar

The following is a brief excerpt from our September Investor Sentiment Survey, one of 8 different reports that we provide for clients at various intervals through out the month (typically 3-4 reports per week).

In includes our analysis of a broad list of both asset flow- and survey-based measures of professional and retail investor sentiment, which focuses on their directional implications for the major areas of the US financial markets including the US stock market, US interest rates, the US Dollar, and commodity prices including copper, crude oil, and gold.


From Today’s Report:

Chart 4 measures investor sentiment on the US currency according to current net positioning by commercial hedgers in the CME euro contract via the Commitments of Traders data, which is compiled and published weekly by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). According to the CFTC, commercials are professional entities, often money center banks, that are holding large positions in the futures market to hedge their physical currency holdings in global currencies including the euro.

Commercial Hedger Positioning In The Euro

Commercial Hedger Positioning In The Euro

The highlighted area in the upper panel of the chart shows that these hedgers, who typically accumulate a net position against the trend, are holding a near-record net long (bullish) position on the euro. The green vertical highlights between both panels show that similar or lesser most bullish extremes by these “smart money” hedgers have coincided with or closely led every major bottom in the euro, and coincident top in the US Dollar, during the past decade.

continued in today’s report


Asbury Research subscribers can view the entire report by clicking here.

Interested professional investors can request a 2-week trial of our entire research service by clicking here and providing your contact information.

 


A Look At Our Most Widely Read Report

The following is the US Stock Market section of Monday’s (September 1st) Keys To this Week report, which is probably our most widely read report.

Keys To This Week, published at the beginning of every week, is a bullet-pointed list of key market factors with accompanying charts that are most likely to influence US financial market direction during the next one to several months.

It includes both strategic (looking out 1-2 quarters) and tactical (looking out over the next 30 days) investment ideas, plus our trend model‘s current bias for US stocks, bonds, and currency.

The report also includes sections on US Stock Market Sectors (which includes our proprietary asset flow metric), US interest rates and Treasuries, and the US Dollar.

Asbury Research subscribers can view the entire report by clicking here.


Keys To This Week

Keys To This Week: September 1st, 2014

Posted on: Tuesday, September 2nd, 2014

The US Stock Market

Trend Model: Positive as of August 18th

This week our table retains the previous 2 weeks’ Positive distribution of key Near Term market factors for the US stock market, and the past 9 weeks’ Negative alignment of important Intermediate Term factors. Despite geopolitical tensions in multiple places around the globe, there is currently no immediate sign of a near term peak in the US stock market due to a positive monthly rate of change in the S&P 500 (SPX) amid expanding ETF asset flows, low volatility, and favorable investor sentiment and market breadth data. Moreover, market bellwether Google (GOOG) begins the week situated right on top of major underlying support. However, there are still some significant headwinds to be aware of this month including formidable overhead resistance currently being tested in the market leading NASDAQ 100 (NDX) and PHLX Semiconductor (SOX) Indexes, NDX’s vulnerability to upcoming relative underperformance versus SPX, what appears to be an emerging major bearish trend change in the German DAX, and a seasonally very weak September in the US broad market. However, note that this seasonal weakness typically occurs at the end of the month, not the beginning.

Table 1

Table 1

Listed in the order of their importance and expected impact on market direction.

  1. Near Term Price Momentum: Monthly Rate of Change (MROC), S&P 500 (SPX). NEAR TERM BULLISH. The 1-month rate-of-change (ROC) in SPX turned back to positive (bullish) on August 19th in the US broad market index, and remains above it through the end of last week. It would take a negative shift in this metric to indicate that a corrective decline is underway.
    .
  2. Asset Flows: PowerShares QQQ ETF (QQQ). NEAR TERM BULLISH. Chart 2 of our August 25th Keys To This Week showed that the total daily assets in QQQ rose significantly above their 21-day moving average on August 18th, indicating a monthly trend of expansion that is near term bullish for the market leading NASDAQ 100.
    .
  3. Support/Resistance: NASDAQ 100 (NDX), PHLX Semiconductor (SOX) Index. MAJOR DECISION POINT, NEAR TERM BEARISH. Chart 3 of last week’s report showed that NDX is hovering just 2% below major overhead resistance at its 4147 September 2000 benchmark high. In addition, Chart 1 below shows that SOX has been negotiating its 642 March 2002 benchmark high since July. How these two market-leading indexes resolve these major inflection points will be seen as a key indication of whether the 2014 US broad market advance extends its recent gains or begins an overdue corrective decline.
    .
  4. Intermarket Relationships. German DAX Index. TURNING INTERMEDIATE TERM BEARISH? Chart 2 below shows that the German DAX begins this week situated in the midst of a key band of overhead resistance at 9513 to 9614, which includes its 200- and 50-day moving averages and the 61.8% retracement of its June 20th decline. This resistance area must contain the DAX on the upside if the index is indeed in the midst of a major bearish trend change, as suggested by its recent decline below its 200-day MA. Considering the DAX’s tight and stable positive correlation to the S&P 500 since 1990, most recently 73% since January, as goes the German index from here is likely to go the US broad market.
    .
  5. Large Cap Stocks: Google (GOOG). MAJOR DECISION POINT, NEAR TO INTERMEDIATE TERM BULLISH. Chart 3 below shows that GOOG begins the week situated just above its $562 per share 200-day moving average, a widely-watched major trend proxy. Considering GOOG’s influence over the broad US market due to its huge market cap, as can be seen by its positive correlation to the S&P 500, we will view its reaction to $562 as an indirect indication of whether the US broad market extends its 2014 gains or begins a corrective decline.
    .
  6. Volatility: The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). NEAR TERM BULLISH. The VIX has closed below its 50-day moving average for the past 9 sessions, indicating a level of investor complacency that helped to fuel last week’s US broad market rally. As long as the VIX remains below its 50-day MA, currently situated at 12.68, it will suggest favorable conditions for last week’s rally to continue.
    .
  7. Investor Sentiment: NEAR TERM BULLISH, INTERMEDIATE TERM BEARISH. Through Friday, about a third of the 18 investor sentiment metrics that we track continue to suggest favorable conditions for more near term strength in the US stock market. However, the rest of these metrics warn of its vulnerability to a larger 1-2 month corrective decline between now and year end.
    .
  8. Overbought/Oversold. NEAR TERM BEARISH. Chart 5 of last week’s report shows that the S&P 500 has become technically overbought on a near term monthly basis and thus remains vulnerable to a minor multi-week decline.
    .
  9. Market Breadth: 3 Key US Indexes (SPX, SOX, and RUT). NEAR TERM BULLISH. Near term breadth metrics in several key US indexes are currently rising from near term washed out extremes in market breadth that have previously coincided with near term market strength. Chart 4 below shows that the percentage of S&P 500 constituent stocks trading above their 40-day moving average is currently rising from a August 8th low extreme near 15%, but has not yet reached opposite frothy extremes near 77% that have previously coincided with market peaks.
    .
  10. Relative Performance: NASDAQ 100 (NDX). TURNING INTERMEDIATE TERM BEARISH? Chart 5 below shows that NDX is hovering at quarterly overbought relative extremes versus SPX, and that previous instances of this have historically coincided with or closely led sustained periods of relative underperformance by NDX. Since Technology, along with Small Cap, tends to lead the US broad market both higher and lower, upcoming relative underperformance by NDX would indirectly suggest a coincident US broad market correction.
    .
  11. Intermarket Relationships. London FTSE Index. INTERMEDIATE TERM BULLISH. Chart 6 of last week’s report showed that the December 2012 resumption of the March 2009 uptrend in the FTSE, following almost 2 years of sideways investor indecision, targets an additional, eventual 4% rise to 7100. The tight and stable long term positive correlation between the FTSE and the S&P 500 suggests that as goes FTSE, so is likely to go SPX. Also note that FTSE can theoretically correct all the way back to the apex of the triangular indecision area at 5825 without negating the 7100 target.
    .
  12. Seasonality: NEAR TERM BEARISH, INTERMEDIATE TERM BULLISH. Chart 6 below shows that September is the seasonally weakest month of the year in the S&P 500 since 1957, on average closing 0.68% lower for the month and posting a negative monthly close 54% of the time, but leads into a gradually escalating 4th Quarter recovery that culminates with the strongest month of the year, December. Our September Global Seasonal Analysis report, available later this week, will include more charts and detail on annual, quarterly and monthly seasonal trends for 17 global asset prices including equities, benchmark interest rates, foreign exchange, and key commodity prices based on historical data going back to the 1950s.
Chart 1

Chart 1

Chart 2

Chart 2

Chart 3

Chart 3

Chart 4

Chart 4

Chart 5

Chart 5

Chart 6

Chart 6


A new, updated Keys To This Week report will be distributed to Asbury Research subscribers on Monday morning.

Asbury Research subscribers can access all 8 reports that we produce by logging into our Research Center.

Interested investors can request information about Asbury Research, including services, pricing, and sample reports, by emailing sales@asburyresearch.com or calling 1-888-960-0005.


ILF Meets Our $41.50 Upside Target

The chart below shows that the iShares S&P Latin America 40 Index ETF (ILF) met our $41.50 initial upside target this morning, first mentioned in our July 15th report entitled Latin America: The Clouds May Be Clearing (access requires subscription), to capture a 4% advance in a little less than 6 weeks.

The benchmark S&P 500 has risen by just 1% during the same period.

ILF daily since April 2014

ILF daily since April 2014

From that report:

The iShares S&P Latin America 40 Index ETF (ILF) broke out higher yesterday from 2 months of sideways price congestion, which suggests that its larger 2014 advance has resumed and targets at least an additional 4% rise to %41.60 that will remain valid above 39.05.  This sets up an initial 2:1 risk/reward ratio in the ETF that has the potential to greatly improve over time…

Finally, because ILF has been statistically uncorrelated to the S&P 500 SPDR ETF (SPY) over the past 13 years, and has already outperformed SPY by 15% since March, we view this Latin American ETF as being worthy of consideration as a means to both diversify portfolio risk and to potentially enhance performance.

Asbury Research subscribers should expect a follow-up report on ILF, one which includes another global stock market that we think has the potential for upcoming outright strength and relative outperformance versus the S&P 500, over the next week or so.


Keurig Green Mountain Inc. (GMCR) Meets Our $135.00 Upside Target

John Kosar appeared on Yahoo! Finance / CNBC’s Talking Numbers on Friday March 14th to discuss DreamWorks Animations (DWA).

With the stock trading near $112.00 per share during his appearance, and already up 50% for the year, John said that he expected an eventual move to $130-$135 later on in 2014.

For those of you playing along at home, the chart below shows that, after first dropping into the underlying support near $96.00 that John mentioned during the interview, GMCR rallied from there and met his $135.00 per share target today to capture a 21% advance in a little over 5 months, outperforming the benchmark S&P 500 which has risen by 8% during the same period.

GMCR Since January 2014

GMCR Since January 2014

You can view the video from John’s March 14th appearance below.

Interested investors can request further information, including research samples and services and pricing details, by emailing sales@asburyreearch.com or by phoning 1-888-960-0005.

Keurig Green Mountain Inc. (GMCR) Meets Our $135.00 Upside Target:


Appeared on:
August 22nd, 2014 at 12:43 pm


Investing With The Smart Guys

The purpose of our Research Excerpts is to provide interested investors with periodic snippets of our premium research, to show how we get Asbury Research subscribers in front of emerging trends in financial asset prices.

Our June 4th Research Excerpt, entitled Oil Prices: Smart Money Skeptical At $103 Per Barrel, was a pretty good example of that.  In the report, we provided an excerpt from one of our premium reports that showed commercial hedgers, who are the smart money in the oil business, were aggressively betting that crude oil was currently over-priced at $103 per barrel.  Moreover, the chart we provided showed that the previous two similar net positioning extremes, in April 2011 and February 2012, immediately preceded two 30% declines in oil prices.

The chart below shows that the NYMEX crude oil contract peaked just about a week after our June 4th Research Excerpt, at $106.15 per barrel on June 13th, before declining by $10.23 per barrel or 10% into today’s lows at $95.89 which, by the way, is the lowest for oil prices since March 21st.

Crude oil contract since 2014

Crude oil contract since 2014

Also noteworthy on the chart is that the recent collapse in oil prices has positioned the contract below its 200-day moving average, a widely-watched major trend proxy, which is currently situated at $97.19.

This opens the door for an even deeper decline.

Asbury Research subscribers can view the latest smart money positioning in broad list of US financial assets, including crude oil, via our Investor Sentiment Survey and in the other reports that we produce throughout the month.

Interested investors can request information about Asbury Research, including services, pricing, and sample reports, by emailing sales@asburyresearch.com or calling 1-888-960-0005.


Follow Up On John Kosar’s Aug 6th CNBC Appearance: Twenty-First Century Fox (FOXA)

Exactly one week ago, on August 6th, John Kosar, our Director of Research, appeared on the Talking Numbers segment of CNBC’s Street Signs to discuss Twenty-First Century Fox, Inc. (FOXA).  That interview appears below.

In the interview John pointed out on a longer-term chart that a former high of $29.41 per share in February 2000, combined with more near term support, at $30.67, could help the stock propel higher and said: “This looks like a great place to buy.”

The chart below shows that FOXA has since risen by $3.12 per share or 10% as of this morning, which:

  1. we would consider a windfall profit, especially in just one week’s time, and
  2. positions the stock at the upper edge of its 9 month trading range at $35.44.
FOXA daily since 2013

FOXA daily since 2013

Although, bigger picture, FOXA appears poised to continue significantly higher over the next 1-2 quarters, this important overhead resistance level may be a place to consider taking some very quick and significant near term profits off the table.

Thanks to CNBC and Yahoo! Finance for the opportunity to appear on the show last week.  John Kosar is scheduled to appear on Talking Numbers again on August 20th and August 27th.

Follow Up On John Kosar’s Aug 6th CNBC Appearance: Twenty-First Century Fox (FOXA):


Appeared on:
August 13th, 2014 at 9:02 am


Asbury Research Trend Model Update
& Interview with John Kosar

The following chart shows the performance of our trend model for the US stock market, which uses the S&P 500 as a proxy, updated through July 2013.

0802-1This is provided for information purposes only. Past performance or back-tested results may not necessarily indicate future results. The performance indicated from back-testing or historical track record may not be typical of future performance. No inferences may be made and no guarantees of profitability are being stated by Asbury Research LLC. The risk of loss trading in financial assets can be substantial. Therefore, you should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Also, in light of this week’s sharp decline in US equity prices we thought — if you haven’t already — you may be interested in listening to John Kosar’s  July 12th interview by James Puplava of the Financial Sense website.  In the interview, John discusses the effects that current geopolitical issues may have on the US stock market and on US interest rates, some of which may be emerging now, and some key levels to watch in both.

We thought it may make for some good weekend listening.

Click Here To Listen To The Interview

 

Interested investors can contact us by phone at 1-888-960-0005, or via email at sales@asburyresearch.com, to request sample reports and further information about services and pricing.


August Seasonality In Long Term US Interest Rates

Global Seasonal Analysis, one of 8 different reports that we produce for subscribers throughout the month, displays and analyzes annual, quarterly and monthly seasonal trends for 17 global asset prices including equities, benchmark interest rates, foreign exchange, and key commodity prices based on historical data going back to the 1950s.

The following is an excerpt from this month’s report.


US 10-Year Yield Monthly Seasonal Pattern Since 1957

The teal bar on the chart at upper left highlights August as theseasonally weakest month of the year for the yield of the US 10-Year Treasury Note based on data since 1957. It represents a sharp one-month seasonal collapse from July, the 3rd strongest month, and the beginning of an extended period of seasonal weakness for these yields that extends through December and include the five weakest months of the year.

Chart 7 of 23

Chart 7 of 23

The depth of the teal bar indicates that, on average since 1957, the yield of the 10-Year has declined by 1.24% in August.

continued>>>


Asbury Research subscribers can download the rest of this report by logging into our Research Center.

Interested investors can contact us by phone at 1-888-960-0005, or via email at sales@asburyresearch.com, to request sample reports and further information about services and pricing.


Dow Transports Meet Our 8475 Target

The chart below shows that the Dow Jones Transportation Index (DJTA) met our 8475 initial upside target this morning, first mentioned in our July 1st report entitled Surging Transports Support Our Outlook For Dow Industrials, to capture a 213 point, 3% advance in just about 3 weeks.

Dow Transports Since May

Dow Transports Since May

From that report:

“Considering the tight and stable long term positive correlation between the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports over the past 25 years, this new 8475 upside target in the Transports, situated 3% above the market, helps to confirm and corroborate the validity of our existing upside target in the Industrials.”

Surging Transports Support Our Outlook For Dow Industrials
Asbury Alert, July 1st 2014
(access requires subscription)


John Kosar’s July 10th Interview On Financial Sense

Click the link below to listen to John’s Kosar’s Thursday July 10th interview with James Puplava of the popular Financial Sense website, where John and Jim discuss the direction of the US stock market, US market sectors, US interest rates, and gold prices during the 3rd Quarter.

Click Here To Listen To The Interview

 


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