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Here we periodically publish a chart and a brief excerpt from one of our premium research reports, a link or a video from one of our appearances in the financial media, or a notification that one of our price targets has been met, for the purpose of familiarizing potential subscriber with our investment research and to stay on the radar of those who have expressed an interest in us.

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“Jenga Market” Could Trigger An Overdue Decline

One of the many reports we produce for subscribers is called What We’re Watching Today (WWWT).  WWWT’s are typically short, 1-2 chart reports that are emailed to subscribers before the market opening.  Their purpose is to identify important, potentially market-moving changes in  market conditions as they occur.

We have included below the entire WWWT from the morning of March 3rd, 2017. entitled Jenga Market” Could Trigger An Overdue Decline.

 

The report featured our extensive database of ETF asset flows data, which allows us to “follow the money” on virtually any financial asset that can be traded with an ETF.  It helped to identify the current March 1st peak in the benchmark S&P 500 just 2 days after it was put into place, and long before there was really any other tangible evidence that the US market was peaking.  SPX has since declined by an additional 61.oo points or 3%.

 


What We’re Watching Today:  Friday March 3rd, 2017

Conclusion, Investment Implications, Strategy

The total net assets invested in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) expanded by a huge amount over just the past two sessions, by $12.9 billion or 5.5%, which creates a near term top-heavy condition that we call a “Jenga Market” after the popular block stacking game.  Moreover, the S&P 500 (SPX) is currently edging below 2380, which defines the lowest possible index level that this 5.5% of new investor assets could have been added.  This means that a sustained move below 2380 would quickly put all $12.9 billion of these newly-added invested assets into the red, which could at least trigger some quick long liquidation and perhaps even an overdue corrective decline.

Analysis and Rationale

The highlighted areas in Chart 1 below show that the total net assets invested in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) expanded by a huge amount, $12,946,505,728 or 5.5%, just over the past 2 trading sessions (March 1st and 2nd), and that all of these new assets were added at S&P 500 2380 or higher (SPX, upper panel).

Chart 1

This quick and aggressive performance chasing has resulted in a Jenga-like, top heavy broad market index in which a relatively small index decline, below SPX 2380, would quickly and immediately put 5.2% of the total assets invested in SPY into the red. 

We have seen similar “Jenga Markets” trigger larger, multi-week corrective market declines so, although this is in no way a sell signal at this point, it is something important to be aware of.  Specifically, we will be watching closely to see if  a sustained move below SPX 2380 triggers enough investor fear, according to metrics like the VIX and high yield corporate bond spreads, to fuel a deeper broad market decline.


Asbury Research subscribers can view our latest analysis of ETF asset flows, along with the rest of our investment research, by logging into the Research Center via the big gold button in the upper right corner of the screen.

Non-subscribers can request more information about us, including service and pricing options, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.

 


Investor Asset Flows Warn Of Market Pullback

The following is Slide 15 of a 29 slide presentation that John Kosar, CMT, made on April 12th to the Pittsburgh Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) Society.  

The chart highlights contracting investor assets in two key US stock market ETFs: The ProShares QQQ which tracks the market leading NASDAQ 100 and the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) which tracks the S&P 500 (SPX).

Algorithmic and high frequency trading has greatly increased intraday volatility in many financial asset prices so that making investment decisions solely on the price of an asset isn’t good enough anymore.  The big breakout that you saw in a particular stock or index two days ago can quickly disappear, and even violently reverse, as these trading programs take advantage of our own fear and greed, enticing investors to make the wrong decisions at key market turning points.

Because of this new obstacle for investors to deal with, Asbury Research has accumulated a large and growing database of difficult-to-get ETF asset flows data.  Unlike trading volume, which just measures day-to-day investor urgency, total net assets show investor conviction in a price move as it indicates positions actually being held overnight.

Accordingly, we use these ETF asset flows data as a kind of lie detector test for the market, to separate these erratic, and often meaningless, algorithm-generated day-to-day movements in price from real trend changes that provide intermediate to long term opportunities for investors.

Asbury Research subscribers can request a copy of the entire April 12th CFA Society presentation by emailing us or by calling 888-960-0005.

Non-subscribers can request more information about us, including service and pricing options, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.


John Kosar Speaking At The Pittsburgh CFA Society Luncheon Next Week

John Kosar, CMT will be speaking next week at the
Pittsburgh Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) Society’s Monthly Luncheon

 

Date:  Wednesday, April 12th 2017

Time: 12:00 PM to 1:30 PM

Topic:  A Quantitative, Technical, and Behavioral View of the Markets

John Kosar, CMT, Asbury Research’s Chief Market Strategist, will discuss from a strategic standpoint what Asbury Research believes is in store for the US financial markets during the rest of 2017, and how a Trump Presidency may influence the direction of specific asset prices. John will also go through Asbury’s unique blend of standard and proprietary market metrics to determine, from a tactical perspective, which stock indexes, sectors, industry groups, and individual stocks and ETFs are currently poised to make the biggest moves into the summer months.

 Presenter:  John Kosar, CMT

Location:  The Omni William Penn Hotel

                       530 William Penn Place, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15219

Registration: Members: $20, Non-Members: $40, Candidates $20

This chapter meeting qualifies you for 1.5 CE Credits, 1.5 SER Credits

Click Here To Register

Click Here For John Kosar’s Upcoming 2017 Speaking Dates


Asbury’s Stock & ETF Ideas: Q1 2017 Performance Update

In addition to our top-down, macro analysis of the US financial landscape, we have recently added specific trading ideas in individual stocks and ETFs that include entry price, target price, stop loss level, and corresponding risk/reward parameters.

The tables below display and analyze our 31 most recent closed out trading ideas which encompass Q4 2016 and Q1 2017.

Click the table to enlarge.

* Performance vs S&P 500 is the average relative outperformance of each individual trade versus the S&P 500 during the period that the trade was in effect.  Specifically, each of the 31 trades listed above have outperformed the S&P 500 by an average of 2.6%.

 

Our model first identifies stocks and ETFs that are in the midst of a pause (indicating investor indecision) within an established price trend, then attempts to buy the resumption of that trend at a price and time when the risk/reward parameters are the most favorable.

Our methodology is designed to produce:

  1. a high percentage of winning trades,
  2. significantly larger winning trades than losing trades, and
  3. an initial risk of 5% or less on any individual idea, all as shown by the small black and gray table above.

Finally, all investors should know that investing in financial assets is a risky endeavor and that past performance does not guarantee future results.

Asbury Research subscribers can view our current stock and ETF ideas by logging into the Research Center via the big gold button in the upper right corner of the screen.

Non-subscribers can request more information about us, including service and pricing options, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.


Upside Target Met In Darden Restaurants (DRI)

Darden Restaurants (DRI) met our $83.50 per share upside target this morning, first mentioned in our March 20th report entitled Darden Restaurants (DRI) Resuming 2015 Advance, to capture a $6.72 per share, 9% advance in 9 business days.

In addition, DRI outperformed the S&P 500 (SPX) by 8.8% during the same period.

Here is the chart from our March 20th report.

DRI daily: October 2016 to March 20th 2017

Here is the updated version of that chart as of this morning.

DRI daily: October 2016 to March 31st 2017

 

Asbury Research subscribers can view our current research on the US stock market, market sectors, US interest rates, ETFs and commodities, as well as a table that includes our current and recent ETF picks like DRI, plus our picks in US stocks and global indexes, by logging into the Research Center via the big gold button in the upper right corner of the screen.

Subscribers and interested investors can view our 26 most recent closed out trade ideas by Clicking Here.

To non-subscribers:  Request more information about us, including service and pricing options, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.


John Kosar Speaking At The Chicago Market Technicians Association Meeting Today

John Kosar, CMT will be speaking at today’s at the Market Technicians Association Chicago Chapter Meeting.

Date: Thursday, March 30, 2017

Time: 4:30 PM – 6:00 PM

Topic:  John Kosar, CMT, Asbury Research’s Chief Market Strategist, will discuss from a strategic standpoint what Asbury believes is in store for the US financial markets during the rest of 2017, and how a Trump Presidency may influence the direction of specific asset prices. John will also go through Asbury’s unique blend of standard and proprietary market metrics to determine, from a tactical perspective, which stock indexes, sectors, industry groups, and individual stocks and ETFs are currently poised to make the biggest moves into the summer months.

 Presenter:  John Kosar, CMT

Location:  Illinois Institute of Technology Stuart School of Business
                       565 W Adams St
                       Room 590
                       Chicago, IL 60661
                       United States of America

Registration: Free for members and non-members.

This chapter meeting qualifies you for 3 MTA Continuing Education (CE) Credits.

Click Here To Register

 


Asbury Research Webinar: Managing Your Investments During The New Trump Administration

John Kosar, CMT will discuss what Asbury Research believes is in store for the US financial markets during the 2nd Quarter, and for the remainder of 2017, and how a Trump Presidency may uniquely influence the direction of certain asset prices.

John will walk webinar attendees, step-by-step, through Asbury’s unique blend of both popular and proprietary market metrics and data series’ to determine:

  • from a strategic standpoint, which stock indexes, sectors, industry groups, and individual stocks and ETFs are currently poised to make the biggest moves into the summer months, and
  • from a tactical standpoint, how to best participate in them.

John will also discuss Asbury’s current stock and ETF picks, as well as the current status of the Correction Protection Model (CPM).

When: Thursday, March 30th at 12:00 noon ET (11:00 am CT, 9 am PT)

Register Now by Clicking Here

(https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/4769383855201060098)

Cost: $25 via PayPal
(payment is necessary before registration is approved)

Buy Now With Credit Cards

Note: All  paid registrants will get a PDF of the presentation, as well as a video of the event, so those who are unavailable at the time of the webinar can still participate.

After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.
Brought to you by GoToWebinar®
Webinars Made Easy®


Asbury Research Webinar: Managing Your Investments During The New Trump Administration

John Kosar, CMT will discuss what Asbury Research believes is in store for the US financial markets during the 2nd Quarter, and for the remainder of 2017, and how a Trump Presidency may uniquely influence the direction of certain asset prices.

John will walk webinar attendees, step-by-step, through Asbury’s unique blend of both popular and proprietary market metrics and data series’ to determine:

  • from a strategic standpoint, which stock indexes, sectors, industry groups, and individual stocks and ETFs are currently poised to make the biggest moves into the summer months, and
  • from a tactical standpoint, how to best participate in them.

John will also discuss Asbury’s current stock and ETF picks, as well as the current status of the Correction Protection Model (CPM).

When: Thursday, March 30th at 12:00 noon ET (11:00 am CT, 9 am PT)

Register Now by Clicking Here

(https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/4769383855201060098)

Cost: $25 via PayPal
(payment is necessary to complete registration)

Buy Now With Credit Cards

Note: All  paid registrants will get a PDF of the presentation, as well as a video of the event, so those who are unavailable at the time of the webinar can still participate.

After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.
Brought to you by GoToWebinar®
Webinars Made Easy®


Video: Asbury Research’s Stock & ETF Picks

In the following 12 minute video, John Kosar, CMT, Chief Market Strategist, walks you through our individual stock and ideas, including:

  • recent performance data and where to find it,
  • what our methodology is,
  • how we choose which stocks and ETFs to buy,
  • how we mitigate risk,
  • how to read and understand our table of new and existing ideas, and
  • how to contact us with questions.

 

Asbury Research subscribers can view our latest research on the US stock market, market sectors and industry groups, US interest rates, commodities, and the US Dollar by logging into the Research Center via the big gold button in the upper right corner of the screen.

To non-subscribers:  Request more information about us, including service and pricing options, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.


Size & Style: Time To Capture 2017 Outperformance By Large Cap Stocks

Conclusion, Investment Implications, Strategy

Our research suggests that those who overweighted large cap stocks on January 9th per our recommendation on that date, versus small or mid cap  stocks, should consider locking in the 8% of relative outperformance accrued since then as this recent trend of relative performance may be coming to an end. 

We are currently watching another area of the market as a potential new overweight opportunity that could carry into the summer months — but it is not quite there yet.  Asbury Research subscribers should consult the Research Center, or contact us directly, for more detail on what appears to be an emerging new relative performance-related opportunity.

Analysis and Rationale

In the January 9th Keys To This Week report (access requires subscription) we first pointed out favorable conditions for relative outperformance by the S&P 500 versus the S&P 1500, rather than by small cap (S&P 600) or mid cap (S&P 400) stocks.

The chart below shows that, as of today, the iShares S&P 500 (IVV) has since outperformed the iShares S&P 1500 (ITOT) by 8%, actually peaking at 11% of relative outperformance on March 10th.

Relative Performance: S&P 500 vs. S&P 1500 daily since July 2016

During the same period the iShares S&P 600 Small Cap (IJR) and iShares S&P 400 Mid Cap (IJH) ETFs have both underperformed the 1500 (ITOT), by 16% and 10%, respectively.

 


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