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Here we periodically publish a chart and a brief excerpt from one of our 8 research reports for the purpose of familiarizing potential subscribers/clients to our investment research, and to stay on the radar screen of those who have already expressed an interest in us.

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Professional investors can request a free trial of our premium research by clicking here and typing TRIAL REQUEST in the “how can we help you?” box.

If interested in an immediate subscription please email sales@asburyresearch.com or call 1-888-960-0005


Our 2015 Year-To-Date Market Calls In Individual Assets

In addition to our top-down, macro analysis of the US financial landscape via 8 different reports throughout the month, and our Correction Protection Model for the S&P 500, we also make specific long and short market calls in individual assets.

The following is a list of links to some of our profitable market calls, year to date.

Asbury Research has services and pricing options to fit every firm and type of investor.  Just complete the short Contact Us form or phone us at 888-960-0005 and we provide some research and pricing options for you or your firm.


Email Alerts

US Dollar Index Meets Our 93.75 Initial Downside Target

The US Dollar Index (DXY) met our 93.75 initial downside target yesterday (May 13th), which was discussed in our May 4th Keys To This Week report (access requires subscription), to capture a 2% decline in the index in just over … Continue reading

Email Alerts

US 10-Year Note Meets Our 127-12 Initial Downside Target

The CBOT 10-Year Treasury Note met our 127-12 initial downside target yesterday (May 5th), which was discussed in our April 29th report entitled Are US Treasury Prices Peaking?, to capture a 1% decline in the contract in one week. During … Continue reading

Email Alerts

FCX Meets Our $23.50 Upside Target

Freeport-McMoRan met our $23.50 upside target on Friday April 30th by trading as high as $23.95 intraday. This target was first discussed in our April 16th report, entitled Recent Strength In FCX Positive For Copper Prices, to capture a $2.67 per share, 13% advance in just about 2 weeks.

Click the link to view the entire Research Excerpt / Email Alert. Continue reading

Email Alerts

FTSE 100 Meets Our 7100 Upside Target

The London FTSE Index essentially met our 7,100 upside target on Friday April 10th by trading as high as 7095 intraday. This target was first discussed in our July 1st Keys To This Week report to capture a 787 point, 13% advance over the past 21 months.

Click the link to view the entire posting. Continue reading

Email Alerts

TLT Meets Our $137.00 Target

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) traded as high as $137.41 today to meet our $137.00 upside target, first mentioned in our January 7th report entitled US 10-Year Note: Next Stop 1.88%?, to capture a $5.61, 4.3% gain in 3 weeks.

Click the link for the rest of this alert and the accompanying chart. Continue reading

Email Alerts

German DAX Meets Our 10,600 Target

The German DAX traded as high as 10,704 today to meet our 10,600 upside target first mentioned in our January 12th Keys To This Week (access requires subscription) and again in our January 13th report entitled What’s Driving US Stocks Today, to capture an 818 point, 8.4% rise in the index in less than 2 weeks.

Click the link to view the accompanying chart. Continue reading

Email Alerts

US 10-Year Yield Meets Our 1.88% Target

The yield of the US 10-Year Treasury Note is currently trading at 1.82% this morning, meeting our 1.88% downside target first mentioned in our January 7th report entitled US 10-Year Note: Next Stop 1.88%? to capture an 8 bps decline in a week’s time.

Click the link to view the entire Alert. Continue reading


Learn more about our Correction Protection Model (CPM), which protects investors against market declines 1)  without sacrificing performance and 2) while reducing volatility of returns by Clicking Here.

 


John Kosar’s May 21st Interview: Financial Sense

Click the link below to listen to John’s Kosar’s Thursday May 21st interview with Jim Puplava of the popular Financial Sense website, where John and Jim cover the entire US financial landscape including the bond market,  which John believes is already pricing in a Federal Reserve rate hike.

John notes that investor asset flows in the US stock market have been anemic lately, and is advising clients to be cautious and to have a defensive plan in place as he believes a summer correction is likely.

Click the link below to listen to the interview, during which John also discusses potential opportunities in the Materials Sector, and in copper and gold

Click Here To Listen To The Interview

You can jump ahead to the 15:50 minute mark of the recording
to go directly to John’s interview.

 Thanks to Jim Puplava and his staff for the invitation and another opportunity
to speak to his large and loyal following of professional and individual investors.

 


US Dollar Index Meets Our 93.75 Initial Downside Target

The US Dollar Index (DXY) met our 93.75 initial downside target yesterday (May 13th), which was discussed in our May 4th Keys To This Week report (access requires subscription), to capture a 2% decline in the index in just over a week.

During the same period the PowerShares DB US Dollar Bearish ETF (UDN) has risen by 2%.

From that report:

Chart Patterns: US Dollar Index (DXY). NEAR TERM DOLLAR BEARISH.  Chart 13 below points out that the April 24th breakdown in DXY, from 6 weeks of sideways indecision, indicates that at least a near term top is in place in the greenback at its recent highs and targets an initial 2% decline to 93.75 that will remain intact below the 50-day moving average at 97.35.”

Chart 13, March 4th 2015

Chart 13, March 4th 2015

Asbury Research subscribers can view our latest research
by logging into the Research Center.


US Financial Market Chart Book: May 2015

The following (green font) is our May US Financial Market Chart Book and accompanying video, which was  made available to Asbury Research subscribers one week ago on May 5th.

We waited a week to show you this month’s “Chart Book”, one of 8 different reports that we produce for Asbury subscribers throughout the month, for 2 reasons: 1) to give our subscribers adequate time to act on the investment ideas there first, and 2) so that those on our Research Excerpts/Blog list can see — in close-to-real-time — the type of research that we provide to subscribers.


Report: US Financial Market Chart Book
Topic: US Financial Market Landscape
Date: May 5th, 2015

A collection of key charts, data, and intermarket analysis that convey our best investment ideas for the US stock market, US market sectors, US interest rates, the US Dollar, and several key commodity prices during the 2nd Quarter, as well as our more intermediate to long term outlook through year end.

It includes an accompanying 20 minute video in which John Kosar, Director of Research, discusses each chart’s implications for upcoming US financial market direction.

The latest data warns of the US stock market’s vulnerability to a 2nd Quarter pullback/correction amid rising long term US interest rates, a weakening US Dollar, and a continuation of the recent rise in commodity prices like copper and crude oil.

[jwplayer mediaid=”29003″]

Click The Link To Download The Chart Book (PDF)


Since this report was sent to subscribers on May 5th the yield of the US 10-Year Note has already risen by 12 bps to 2.28% while the US Dollar Index has declined by 2%.  We have been positive on crude oil and copper prices since February, during which time  we have been recommending them to clients as a potential diversification option away from US stocks, the latter which are essentially unchanged since then.  Since February, crude oil prices have risen by 16% and copper prices are up 18%.

Interested Investors can request more information about our independent investment research, including sample reports and service and pricing options, by either completing the Contact Us Form or by calling us at 1-224-569-4112.


US 10-Year Note Meets Our 127-12 Initial Downside Target

The CBOT 10-Year Treasury Note met our 127-12 initial downside target yesterday (May 5th), which was discussed in our April 29th report entitled Are US Treasury Prices Peaking?, to capture a 1% decline in the contract in one week.

During the same period the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) declined by 4.63 points or 3.6%.OK

From that report:

“This morning’s decline in the CBOT 10-Year Treasury Note indicates that at least a near term top is in place in long dated US Treasury prices at their recent highs, amid a similarly important bottom in long term US interest rates, and suggests that a test of the critical 2.21% area in benchmark US 10-Year yields is likely later this quarter.

This week’s rise in benchmark US interest rates, heading into this afternoon’s FOMC Meeting Announcement, suggests that the typically prescient and forward looking bond market may be starting to price in the inevitable first rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

US 10-Year Yields finished yesterday’s session at 2.19% from 2.00% on April 28th.

Asbury Research subscribers can view our latest research pertaining to US interest rates and Treasuries by logging into the Research Center and accessing the Intermediate Term Outlook: Global Asset Prices page.


FCX Meets Our $23.50 Upside Target

Freeport-McMoRan met our $23.50 upside target on Friday April 30th by trading as high as $23.95 intraday.  This target was first discussed in our April 16th report, entitled Recent Strength In FCX Positive For Copper Prices, to capture a $2.67 per share, 13% advance in just about 2 weeks.

From that report:

“Wednesday’s breakout higher from 10 weeks of sideways investor indecision in Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) suggests that a near term bottom is in place at the recent lows, and targets at least an additional 13% rise to $23.50 per share

Moreover, current inter-asset statistical correlations suggest that an upcoming rise in FCX is likely to coincide with a similar rise in both COMEX copper futures and in the iPath Bloomberg Copper Subindex Total Return Sub-Index ETN (JJC).”

Since our April 16th report COMEX copper futures have also risen, as expected, by by 6% to 293.00 ($2.93 per pound) as JJC has coincidentally risen by 6% to $35.29. 

The S&P 500 was unchanged during the same period.

Asbury Research subscribers can view our most recent recent research pertaining to copper and related assets by logging into the Research Center and accessing the Intermediate Term Outlook: Global Asset Prices page.


Correction Protection Model:
Q1 2015 Performance Update

The table and chart below below display newly-updated performance data through March 2015 for our “Correction Protection Model” (CPM).

We back-tested the model from 2007 forward during a period that includes uptrends, downtrends, and sideways trends.  It has been running in real-time since September 2013.

Purpose & Key Features:

  • Defensive, quantitatively-driven model that
  • protects investors against market declines
  • without sacrificing performance under a variety of market conditions,
  • all while reducing volatility of returns.

Asbury Research’s Correction Protection Model (CPM)
statistical performance through Q1 2015

Q1 2015 CPM Performanceclick on table to enlarge

Asbury Research’s Correction Protection Model (CPM)
growth of $100 since inception vs. S&P 500

Q1 2015 CPM Performance chartclick on chart to enlarge

About CPM:

  • The model is a defensive hedge against market corrections and bear markets that can decimate investor portfolios.
  • The model utilizes 4 quantitative inputs.
  • The model uses the S&P 500 as a proxy for the market.
  • The model is binary: either in the market or out of it.  There are no short positions, leveraged longs, or hedging via derivatives.
  • The model was designed to: 1) be in the market as much as possible, 3) exit on meaningful declines, and 4) quickly re-enter as soon as a positive trend has been reestablished.
  • Since 2007, the model has been in the market 74% of the time
  • Since 2007, the model has averaged 3.9 signals per year or approximately 1 per quarter.

Click Here for more charts and information pertaining to the Correction Protection Model.

Interested investors can learn more about our research services and pricing by completing an information request or by calling 1-888-960-0005.

 


John Kosar To Speak At NAAIM 2015 National Conference

John Kosar will be a speaker at the NAAIM (National Association of Active Investment Managers) 2015 National Conference, entitled “Uncommon Knowledge”, which is being held at the Marriott Resort & Spa in Newport Beach, California on May 3rd through 6th.

Hope to see you there!

Click Here for more information about the conference,
or call 888-960-0005 to contact us directly.


Exiting Our December Outperform Bias In Cons Discretionary

Our sector rotation model moved back to a market perform bias on the Consumer Discretionary Sector this morning, from an outperform bias as of December 1st 2014, to capture 6% of relative sector outperformance versus the S&P 500 during that almost-five-month period.  This change of bias was due to the recent contraction in investor asset flows from an  historically very over-invested sector.

The following (green font) is a brief excerpt from this morning’s Keys To This Week report, one of 8 reports that we produce for subscribers, where we display and discuss the reasons for our change of bias on Consumer Discretionary, and also display our model’s current bias for the other sectors of the S&P 500.


Excerpt From: Keys To This Week
Date: April 20th, 2015
Subject: US Stock Market Sectors

The green highlights in Table 2 below show that, for the second consecutive week, the biggest inflow of ETF-related investor assets over the past 1 week, 1 month, and 3 month periods has been into Energy.  As a direct result, Energy was the only sector to finish in positive territory last week, gaining 2.2%.  The red highlights show the biggest outflow of assets over the past 1 week came from Consumer Discretionary.

Table 2

Chart 7 below shows the current distribution of assets invested in the 9 Sector SPDR ETFs through Friday, and points out that Consumer Discretionary is currently the most over-invested sector of the S&P 500 as it comprises 11% of the sector pie versus an historic 5%.  Not shown is that this is the most over-invested that this sector has been in the history of our data, which warns of its vulnerability to upcoming relative underperformance versus the S&P 500.

Chart 7

continued>>>


Asbury Research Subscribers: Login to the Research Center to view the rest of the report.

Interested Investors can request more information about our independent investment research services by either completing the Contact Us Form or by calling us at 1-224-569-4112.


Keys To This Week: The Dow Transports

Keys To This Week is one of 8 different reports that we produce for subscribers throughout the month. It includes a bullet-pointed list of what we believe are the most important and potentially market-moving charts, indicators, and data series to be aware of during the current week.

The following is one of this week’s twelve “Keys” for the US stock market.


Report: Keys To This Week
Date: April 13th, 2015
Subject: US Stock Market

Key # 8 of 12: Market Breadth, Dow Transports (DJTA), NEAR TERM BULLISH

The percentage of Dow Transportation Index (DJTA, see Chart 6 below) constituent stocks trading above their 50-day moving average is currently bottoming/rising from an historically low extreme of 31%, indicating washed-out market breadth, that has previously coincided with near term US market advances.

Chart 6 of 14

Chart 6 of 14

The Dow Transports have been the weak link in the US stock market lately.  Moreover, this economic barometer has been negotiating is 200-day moving average — a widely-watched major trend proxy — since March 26th, identifying this level as a major decision point from which its next significant directional move is likely to begin.

This chart suggests favorable conditions, from a market breadth standpoint, for the Transports to begin a new near term move higher now, just as it did on January 14th, and previously on October 15th, August 8th, and during April and February of 2014.  If the Transports fail to rebound from here, however, it would be analogous to a market that cannot rally on positive fundamental or economic news and warn that a deeper, more sustained decline is coming.

continued…


Asbury Research Subscribers can login to the Research Center to view the rest of the report.

Interested Investors can request more information about our independent investment research services, including a sample report, by either completing the Contact Us Form or by calling us at 1-224-569-4112.


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