Here we periodically publish a chart and a brief excerpt from one of our 8 research reports for the purpose of familiarizing potential subscribers/clients to our investment research, and to stay on the radar screen of those who have already expressed an interest in us.
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The following (green highlights) is an excerpt from our Monday August 31st Keys To This Week report that focuses on the US stock market.
Separate Keys To This Week reports are also available for US market sectors, US interest rates & Treasuries, and the US Dollar and Commodities.
Report: Keys To this Week
Topic: The US Stock Market
Date: Monday August 31st 2015
Key #4 of 10, Volatility: CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). TURNING NEAR TERM BULLISH? Chart 5 below shows that the VIX spiked above 44.00 last week, a level that had previously closely coincided with S&P 500 bottoms in 2010 and 2011.
What the chart doesn’t show, however, is that the bottoms in the S&P 500 that these extreme readings preceded came 5 weeks later and 7% lower in 2010, and 8 weeks later and 4% lower in 2011, than the initial index lows while the VIX was breaching 44.00.
In short, this metric suggests that the US broad market is probably within a month or so of another similarly important bottom, but warns that we could still see lower lows first.
Asbury Research Subscribers can view the entire report, which includes all 10 keys to this week’s US stock market direction and accompanying charts, by logging into the Research Center via the gold button at the upper right corner of the page.
Interested Investors can request a sample copy of the report by completing the Contact Us form and typing “research sample” in the Reason For Inquiry box.
Note: Our Correction Protection Model (CPM) moved to Neutral (out of the market) as of August 13th.
The Chinese Shanghai Composite Index declined overnight to meet our 3,100 initial downside target, which was first displayed and discussed in Friday’s (August 21st) Weekly Wrap-Up report, to capture a 408 point, 12% decline in 2 days.
Although this initial target being met may help to trigger a near term rally, it does not in any way signal a sustainable bottom.
We have been focusing on Chinese markets all summer because of their positive correlation to, and obvious influence on, the US market. During the same 2 day period, the positively correlated S&P 500 has declined by an additional 104 points or 5%.
Asbury Research subscribers can view our August 21st Weekly Wrap-Up by clicking here.
The London FTSE 100 Index declined to meet our 6,250 downside target earlier today, which was first mentioned in our Monday August 17th Keys To This Week report, to capture a 300 point, 5% decline in 5 days.
During the same period the positively correlated S&P 500 has declined by 112 points or 5%.
Asbury Research subscribers can view our August 17th Keys To This Week report by clicking here.
The small cap Russell 2000 (RUT) declined to meet our 1,175 downside target today, which was first mentioned in our Friday July 24th Weekly Wrap-Up report, to capture a 51.00 point, 4% decline in just about a month.
Asbury Research subscribers can view our July 24th Weekly Wrap-Up by clicking here.
With the Dow Industrials already down 270 points midday today, we are resending John Kosar’s August 6th interview with the Financial Sense website‘s Jim Puplava.
From that interview:
Jim welcomes back John Kosar CMT, Director of Research at Asbury Research LLC. John notes weakness in various indices, and believes we may be in a rolling-over period. He is looking for a correction of 10% or so by October, which he would consider as a major buying opportunity. They also discuss the potential for the Fed to hike rates in September, and how the market may react. John also covers the recent market events in China, as well as precious metals and oil. Lastly, he mentions that the final three months of the year are seasonally the strongest for the market, with December the best month historically.
The PHLX Housing Index (HGX) rose to 250.00 this morning to meet our upside target first mentioned in our February 23rd Keys To this Week report, capturing a 19.00 point, 8.2% advance in just a little less than 6 months.
Here is the chart from our February 23rd report.
Here is the current chart updated this morning (August 18th).
Although the trend in housing is clearly positive, longs are now cautioned as corrective declines often begin once initial price targets are met, driven by profit taking.
Technology and market bellwether Apple Inc. (AAPL) met our $109.75 downside target this morning, which was mentioned:
- first in our July 22nd report entitled Influential AAPL At A Major Decision Point (access requires subscription),
- again in our August 4th entitled AAPL: Canary In The Coal Mine?, and
- most recently in our August 10th Keys To This Week report
to capture a $14.90 per share, 12% decline in 3 weeks.
Click the link below to listen to John’s Kosar’s Thursday August 6th interview with Jim Puplava of the popular Financial Sense website, where John and Jim cover US and global stock markets, market sectors, US interest rates and commodities heading into the 4th Quarter.
John notes weakness in various indices, and believes we may be in a rolling-over period. He sees the potential for a correction of 10% or so by October, which could turn into a major buying opportunity. John and Jim also discuss the potential for the Fed to hike rates in September, and how the market may react. John also covers the recent market events in China, as well as precious metals and oil. Lastly, he mentions that the final three months of the year are seasonally the strongest for the market, with December the best month historically.
Thanks to Jim Puplava and his staff for the invitation and another opportunity to speak to his large and loyal following of professional and individual investors.
The table and chart below below display updated performance data through June 2015 for our “Correction Protection Model” (CPM).
We back-tested the model from 2007 forward during a period that includes uptrends, downtrends, and sideways trends. It has been running in real-time since September 2013.
Purpose & Key Features:
- Defensive, quantitatively-driven model that
- protects investors against market declines
- without sacrificing long term performance under a variety of market conditions
- while reducing volatility of returns.
Correction Protection Model (CPM) statistical performance through Q2 2015
click on table to enlarge
Correction Protection Model (CPM) growth of $100 since inception vs. S&P 500
click on chart to enlarge
- The model is a defensive hedge against market corrections and bear markets that can decimate investor portfolios.
- The model utilizes 4 quantitative inputs.
- The model uses the S&P 500 as a proxy for the market.
- The model is binary: either in the market or out of it. There are no short positions, leveraged longs, or hedging via derivatives.
- The model was designed to: 1) be in the market as much as possible, 3) exit on meaningful declines, and 4) quickly re-enter as soon as a positive trend has been reestablished.
- Since 2007, the model has been in the market 74% of the time
- Since 2007, the model has averaged 3.9 signals per year or approximately 1 per quarter.
Interested investors can learn more about our research services by completing an information request or by calling 1-888-960-0005.
The following is a special Research Excerpt that includes both a downloadable chart book and 9 minute video in which John Kosar, our Chief Investment Strategist, walks you through:
- some key charts and data series that pertain to the near term direction of the US stock market,
- our Correction Protection Model for the US stock market.
- 4 long/short ideas in individual stocks.
The purpose of this chart book and video is to give you a real-time snapshot of what we do for our clients every day and to encourage you to consider becoming an Asbury Research Subscriber.
We have services and pricing options for hedge funds/portfolio managers, financial advisors/wealth managers, and serious individual investors. Contact us at 888-960-0005 or email@example.com to get further information and research samples.