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Here we periodically publish a chart and a brief excerpt from one of our premium research reports, a link or a video from one of our appearances in the financial media, or a notification that one of our price targets has been met, for the purpose of familiarizing potential subscriber with our investment research and to stay on the radar of those who have expressed an interest in us.

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If interested in an immediate subscription please email sales@asburyresearch.com or call 1-888-960-0005

Upside Target Met In Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HKHS)

The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HKHS) has traded as high as 25,386 today, meeting our 25,200 upside target first mentioned in the July 25th 2016 Keys To This Week report (access requires subscription), to capture a 3,207 point, 15% advance in a little less than 10 months.

Our primary interest in HKHS was its tight and stable long term positive correlation to the S&P 500 (SPX), which we viewed as being indirectly positive for the US broad market.

During the same 10-month period, HKHS outperformed the S&P 500 (SPX) by 4.1%.

Here is the chart.

Hong Kong Hang Seng Index daily: 2016 through May 15th

 

Asbury Research subscribers can view our current research on the US stock market, market sectors, US interest rates, ETFs and commodities, as well as a table that includes our current and recent global index picks like HKHS, plus our picks in US stocks and ETFs, by logging into the Research Center via the big gold button in the upper right corner of the screen.

Subscribers and interested investors can view our 35 most recent closed out trade ideas by Clicking Here.

To non-subscribers:  Request more information about us, including service and pricing options, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.


Upside Target Met In Equity Lifestyle Properties (ELS)

Equity Lifestyle Properties (ELS) traded as high as $83.26 per share this morning  (May 15th), meeting our $83.00 target first mentioned in our April 17th Asbury Alert entitled Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc. (ELS) Resuming Its November Uptrend (access requires subscription) to capture a $3.25 per share, 4.1% gain in slightly less than one month.

During the same period, ELS also outperformed the S&P 500 by 1.8%.

Here is the chart from our April 17th, 2016 report.

ELS daily: November 2016 through April 17th

Here is the updated version of that chart as of this the close on May 2nd.

ELS daily: November 2016 to May 15th

 

Asbury Research subscribers can view our current research on the US stock market, market sectors, US interest rates, ETFs and commodities, as well as a table that includes our current and recent stock picks like ELS, plus our picks in ETFs and global indexes, by logging into the Research Center via the big gold button in the upper right corner of the screen.

Subscribers and interested investors can view our 35 most recent closed out trade ideas by Clicking Here.

To non-subscribers:  Request more information about us, including service and pricing options, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.


John Kosar’s May 12th, 2017 Interview: Financial Sense

Jim Puplava of the popular Financial Sense website welcomes back John Kosar CMT, Chief Investment Strategist at Asbury Research LLC.

In his latest interview by Financial Sense, which took place on Friday May 12th, John discussed Asbury Research’s outlook for the US financial landscape, as well as specific areas of the economy including:

  • the US stock market, market sectors, and industry groups,
  • US interest rates,
  • key commodities like silver, gold. and crude oil, and
  • the US Dollar.

 

 

Asbury Research subscribers can view our current research on the US and global financial landscape, and our  current stock and ETF picks, by logging into the Research Center via the big gold button in the upper right corner of the screen.

Interested investors can request more information about us, including sample research, services and pricing, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.

Thanks to Jim Puplava and his staff for the invitation and another opportunity to speak to his large and loyal following of professional and individual investors.


Upside Target Met In Master Card (MA)

Master Card (MA) traded as high as $119.71 per share yesterday (May 2nd), essentially meeting our $120.00 target first mentioned in our September 29th 2016 Monthly Investment Compass report.  Under these circumstances we suggest that investors consider taking profits on long positions which, considering MA’s current level of $117.85, would capture a $17.24 per share, 17.1% gain in about 7 months.

During the same period, MA also outperformed the S&P 500 by 5.6%.

Here is the chart from our September 29th, 2016 report.

MA daily through Sept 29, 2017

Here is the updated version of that chart as of this the close on May 2nd.

MA daily through May 2, 2017

 

Asbury Research subscribers can view our current research on the US stock market, market sectors, US interest rates, ETFs and commodities, as well as a table that includes our current and recent stock picks like MA, plus our picks in ETFs and global indexes, by logging into the Research Center via the big gold button in the upper right corner of the screen.

Subscribers and interested investors can view our 25 most recent closed out trade ideas by Clicking Here and then clicking the gold Individual Stocks & ETFs tab.

To non-subscribers:  Request more information about us, including service and pricing options, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.


John Kosar Speaking At The 2017 NAAIM National Conference In San Diego Tomorrow

John Kosar, CMT will be speaking tomorrow morning at the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) 2017 Annual Conference

What: National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) Annual Conference
When: Tuesday, May 2nd 2017
Where: Hilton San Diego Resort and Spa, 1775 East Mission Bay Drive, San Diego, California 92109
Topic: Investing During The Trump Administration: Finding Opportunity And Avoiding Danger In Global Markets

 

Click Here For John Kosar’s Upcoming 2017 Speaking Dates


“Jenga Market” Could Trigger An Overdue Decline

One of the many reports we produce for subscribers is called What We’re Watching Today (WWWT).  WWWT’s are typically short, 1-2 chart reports that are emailed to subscribers before the market opening.  Their purpose is to identify important, potentially market-moving changes in  market conditions as they occur.

We have included below the entire WWWT from the morning of March 3rd, 2017. entitled Jenga Market” Could Trigger An Overdue Decline.

 

The report featured our extensive database of ETF asset flows data, which allows us to “follow the money” on virtually any financial asset that can be traded with an ETF.  It helped to identify the current March 1st peak in the benchmark S&P 500 just 2 days after it was put into place, and long before there was really any other tangible evidence that the US market was peaking.  SPX has since declined by an additional 61.oo points or 3%.

 


What We’re Watching Today:  Friday March 3rd, 2017

Conclusion, Investment Implications, Strategy

The total net assets invested in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) expanded by a huge amount over just the past two sessions, by $12.9 billion or 5.5%, which creates a near term top-heavy condition that we call a “Jenga Market” after the popular block stacking game.  Moreover, the S&P 500 (SPX) is currently edging below 2380, which defines the lowest possible index level that this 5.5% of new investor assets could have been added.  This means that a sustained move below 2380 would quickly put all $12.9 billion of these newly-added invested assets into the red, which could at least trigger some quick long liquidation and perhaps even an overdue corrective decline.

Analysis and Rationale

The highlighted areas in Chart 1 below show that the total net assets invested in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) expanded by a huge amount, $12,946,505,728 or 5.5%, just over the past 2 trading sessions (March 1st and 2nd), and that all of these new assets were added at S&P 500 2380 or higher (SPX, upper panel).

Chart 1

This quick and aggressive performance chasing has resulted in a Jenga-like, top heavy broad market index in which a relatively small index decline, below SPX 2380, would quickly and immediately put 5.2% of the total assets invested in SPY into the red. 

We have seen similar “Jenga Markets” trigger larger, multi-week corrective market declines so, although this is in no way a sell signal at this point, it is something important to be aware of.  Specifically, we will be watching closely to see if  a sustained move below SPX 2380 triggers enough investor fear, according to metrics like the VIX and high yield corporate bond spreads, to fuel a deeper broad market decline.


Asbury Research subscribers can view our latest analysis of ETF asset flows, along with the rest of our investment research, by logging into the Research Center via the big gold button in the upper right corner of the screen.

Non-subscribers can request more information about us, including service and pricing options, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.

 


Investor Asset Flows Warn Of Market Pullback

The following is Slide 15 of a 29 slide presentation that John Kosar, CMT, made on April 12th to the Pittsburgh Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) Society.  

The chart highlights contracting investor assets in two key US stock market ETFs: The ProShares QQQ which tracks the market leading NASDAQ 100 and the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) which tracks the S&P 500 (SPX).

Algorithmic and high frequency trading has greatly increased intraday volatility in many financial asset prices so that making investment decisions solely on the price of an asset isn’t good enough anymore.  The big breakout that you saw in a particular stock or index two days ago can quickly disappear, and even violently reverse, as these trading programs take advantage of our own fear and greed, enticing investors to make the wrong decisions at key market turning points.

Because of this new obstacle for investors to deal with, Asbury Research has accumulated a large and growing database of difficult-to-get ETF asset flows data.  Unlike trading volume, which just measures day-to-day investor urgency, total net assets show investor conviction in a price move as it indicates positions actually being held overnight.

Accordingly, we use these ETF asset flows data as a kind of lie detector test for the market, to separate these erratic, and often meaningless, algorithm-generated day-to-day movements in price from real trend changes that provide intermediate to long term opportunities for investors.

Asbury Research subscribers can request a copy of the entire April 12th CFA Society presentation by emailing us or by calling 888-960-0005.

Non-subscribers can request more information about us, including service and pricing options, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.


John Kosar Speaking At The Pittsburgh CFA Society Luncheon Next Week

John Kosar, CMT will be speaking next week at the
Pittsburgh Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) Society’s Monthly Luncheon

 

Date:  Wednesday, April 12th 2017

Time: 12:00 PM to 1:30 PM

Topic:  A Quantitative, Technical, and Behavioral View of the Markets

John Kosar, CMT, Asbury Research’s Chief Market Strategist, will discuss from a strategic standpoint what Asbury Research believes is in store for the US financial markets during the rest of 2017, and how a Trump Presidency may influence the direction of specific asset prices. John will also go through Asbury’s unique blend of standard and proprietary market metrics to determine, from a tactical perspective, which stock indexes, sectors, industry groups, and individual stocks and ETFs are currently poised to make the biggest moves into the summer months.

 Presenter:  John Kosar, CMT

Location:  The Omni William Penn Hotel

                       530 William Penn Place, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15219

Registration: Members: $20, Non-Members: $40, Candidates $20

This chapter meeting qualifies you for 1.5 CE Credits, 1.5 SER Credits

Click Here To Register

Click Here For John Kosar’s Upcoming 2017 Speaking Dates


Asbury’s Stock & ETF Ideas: Q1 2017 Performance Update

In addition to our top-down, macro analysis of the US financial landscape, we have recently added specific trading ideas in individual stocks and ETFs that include entry price, target price, stop loss level, and corresponding risk/reward parameters.

The tables below display and analyze our 31 most recent closed out trading ideas which encompass Q4 2016 and Q1 2017.

Click the table to enlarge.

* Performance vs S&P 500 is the average relative outperformance of each individual trade versus the S&P 500 during the period that the trade was in effect.  Specifically, each of the 31 trades listed above have outperformed the S&P 500 by an average of 2.6%.

 

Our model first identifies stocks and ETFs that are in the midst of a pause (indicating investor indecision) within an established price trend, then attempts to buy the resumption of that trend at a price and time when the risk/reward parameters are the most favorable.

Our methodology is designed to produce:

  1. a high percentage of winning trades,
  2. significantly larger winning trades than losing trades, and
  3. an initial risk of 5% or less on any individual idea, all as shown by the small black and gray table above.

Finally, all investors should know that investing in financial assets is a risky endeavor and that past performance does not guarantee future results.

Asbury Research subscribers can view our current stock and ETF ideas by logging into the Research Center via the big gold button in the upper right corner of the screen.

Non-subscribers can request more information about us, including service and pricing options, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.


Upside Target Met In Darden Restaurants (DRI)

Darden Restaurants (DRI) met our $83.50 per share upside target this morning, first mentioned in our March 20th report entitled Darden Restaurants (DRI) Resuming 2015 Advance, to capture a $6.72 per share, 9% advance in 9 business days.

In addition, DRI outperformed the S&P 500 (SPX) by 8.8% during the same period.

Here is the chart from our March 20th report.

DRI daily: October 2016 to March 20th 2017

Here is the updated version of that chart as of this morning.

DRI daily: October 2016 to March 31st 2017

 

Asbury Research subscribers can view our current research on the US stock market, market sectors, US interest rates, ETFs and commodities, as well as a table that includes our current and recent ETF picks like DRI, plus our picks in US stocks and global indexes, by logging into the Research Center via the big gold button in the upper right corner of the screen.

Subscribers and interested investors can view our 26 most recent closed out trade ideas by Clicking Here.

To non-subscribers:  Request more information about us, including service and pricing options, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.


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