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Upside Target Met In the SPDR Biotech ETF (XBI)

The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) traded as high as $80.89 per share on Monday June 26th, essentially meeting our $81.00 upside target first mentioned in our May 1st Keys To This Week report, to capture a 14% gain in a little less than 2 months.

For perspective, during the same period the S&P 500 rose by just 1%.

Here is the chart from our May 1st report.

XBI daily: October 2015 through April 28th

Here is the updated version of that chart through the close today.

XBI daily: October 2015 through June 27th

 

Asbury Research subscribers can view our current research on the US stock market, market sectors, US interest rates, ETFs and commodities, as well as a table that includes our current and recent stock and ETF picks like XBI, by logging into the Research Center via the big gold button in the upper right corner of the screen.

Subscribers and interested investors can view our 35 most recent closed out trade ideas by Clicking Here.

To non-subscribers:  Request more information about us, including service and pricing options, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.


John Kosar Presenting To The Dallas / Fort Worth CFA Society and MTA Chapters This Week

John Kosar, CMT will be visiting the Dallas / Fort Worth area this week to present his latest investment research to the local chapters of the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) Society and Market Technicians Association (MTA) .

Topic:  Is The Trump Trade In Trouble?”

What:  Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) Society Dallas/Fort Worth
When: Wednesday, June 28th 2017, 5:30 to 7:00 PM
Where: The Crescent Club, 200 Crescent Club, Dallas 75201


What:   Market Technicians Association Dallas Chapter
When: Thursday, June 29th 7:30 to 9:00 AM
Where: The Fort Worth Club, 306 West 7th St., Forth Worth TX 76102

Click Here For John Kosar’s Upcoming 2017 Speaking Dates


Update: Asbury’s Stock and ETF Ideas

Our current trade ideas include:

COL ENZL MCO
NOC PHM PLD
SRE VRSN XHB
XLI XLV  

Through Friday June 24th:

  • the average open trade profit on these 11 ideas is 4.8%,
  • the average risk/reward ratio on these 11 ideas is 1:4.7 (risking $1.00 to make $4.70), and
  • if all 11 ideas were stopped out it would result in an average profit of 1.8% per idea,

This is achieving our goal of investing in a diversified portfolio of approximately 10 stocks with very limited collective risk and exponentially larger profit potential.

Asbury Research Subscribers can view our Stock and ETF Ideas table, which include entry price and date, stop loss level, profit target, and detailed risk/reward parameters, by logging into the Research Center.

This table is being provided for information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. No inferences or guarantees of profitability are being stated by Asbury Research LLC. The risk of loss trading in financial assets can be substantial. Therefore, you should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Click Here for a larger list and breakdown of our closed trade ideas.

Click Here to request further information about our investment research.


US Stocks At Important Decision Point

The following is one of three charts and a brief excerpt from a report that was sent to Asbury Research Subscribers earlier today, entitled US Stocks At Minor Decision Point & Poised To Resume Post Election Advance.

Investor Sentiment: A New Leg Higher?

The blue line in the lower panel of Chart 2 below plots the 5-day moving average of the International Securities Exchange (ISE) Sentiment Index (ISEE) which shows how retail options traders view stock prices.

According to ISE: ISEE only measures opening long customer transactions on ISE. Transactions made by market makers and firms are not included in ISEE because they are not considered representative of market sentiment due to the often specialized nature of those transactions. Customer transactions, meanwhile, are often thought to best represent market sentiment because customers, which include individual investors, often buy call and put options to express their sentiment toward a particular stock.

The green highlights in Chart 2 show that the ISE has reached a least bullish extreme, indicating a historically low number of call options versus put options which, as a contrary indicator, has coincided with most every significant near term bottom in the S&P 500 (SPX, upper panel) in recent history.

Chart 2

This suggests that, unless US equities are rolling into a major downtrend, another similarly important bottom is likely to emerge from a or near SPX’s current level.

continued>>>

 

Asbury Research subscribers can view the entire report by logging into the Research Center via the big gold button in the upper right corner of the screen.

Subscribers and interested investors can view our 35 most recent closed out trade ideas by Clicking Here.

To non-subscribers:  Request more information about us, including service and pricing options, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.


John Kosar Speaking At The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Seminar In Los Angeles Tomorrow

John Kosar, CMT will be presenting his latest investment research tomorrow morning to the Los Angeles Chapter of the The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).

 

What: The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), Los Angeles

When: Saturday, June 17th 2017

Where: Skirball Cultural Center’s Magnin Auditorium, 2701 N. Sepulveda Blvd., Los Angeles, CA 90049

Topic:  Investing During The Trump Administration: Opportunity & Danger”

 

Click Here For John Kosar’s Upcoming 2017 Speaking Dates


Update: Asbury’s Stock and ETF Ideas

 

Our current trade ideas include:

COL ENZL MCO
NOC PHM PLD
SRE VRSN XHB
XLI XLV  

 

Through Friday June 9th:

  • the average downside risk per trade of the 11 ideas listed above (based on stop loss placement) is just 1.0%,
  • the average open trade profit on these 11 ideas is 3.5%, and
  • the average risk/reward ratio on these 11 ideas is 1:4.7 (risking $1.00 to make $4.70). 

This is achieving our goal of investing in a diversified portfolio of around 10 stocks with collectively very limited risk and exponentially larger profit potential.

Asbury Research Subscribers can view our Trade Ideas Table, which include entry price and date, stop loss level, profit target, and detailed risk/reward parameters, by logging into the Research Center.

This table is being provided for information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. No inferences or guarantees of profitability are being stated by Asbury Research LLC. The risk of loss trading in financial assets can be substantial. Therefore, you should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Click Here for a larger list and breakdown of our closed trade ideas.

Click Here to request further information about our investment research.

 


Upside Target Met In Taiwan Weighted Index (TWII)

The Taiwan Weighted Index traded as high as 10,227 yesterday, June 5th, meeting our 10,200 upside target first mentioned in the October 10th 2016 Keys To This Week report (access requires subscription), to capture a 934 point, 10% advance in a little less than 8 months.

Our primary interest in TWII is its tight and stable long term positive correlation to the S&P 500 (SPX), which we viewed as being indirectly positive for the US broad market.

During the same 8-month period, the S&P 500 (SPX) rose by 276 points or 12.8%.

Here is the chart.

Taiwan Weighted Index: August 2015 through June 6th 2017

 

Asbury Research subscribers can view our current research on US and global stock markets, market sectors, US interest rates, ETFs and commodities, as well as a table that includes our current and recent global index picks like TWII, plus our picks in US stocks and ETFs, by logging into the Research Center via the big gold button in the upper right corner of the screen.

Subscribers and interested investors can view our 35 most recent closed out trade ideas by Clicking Here.

To non-subscribers:  Request more information about us, including service and pricing options, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.


Update: Asbury’s Stock and ETF Ideas

Our current trade ideas include:

XLI ENZL
SRE XLV
NOC PLD
VRSN MCO
XHB COL

Through Friday June 2nd:

  • the average downside risk per trade of the 10 ideas listed above (based on stop loss placement) is just 0.1% (one-half of one percent),
  • the average open trade profit on each of these ideas is 4.1%, and
  • the average risk/reward ratio on these 10 ideas is 1:4.7 (risking $1.00 to make $4.70). 

This is achieving our goal of investing in a diversified portfolio of 10 stocks with collectively very limited risk and exponentially larger profit potential.

Asbury Research subscribers can see the details on each of these trading ideas including entry price, upside target, stop loss level, and risk/reward parameters, by Clicking Here.


Near Term Upside Target Met In The S&P 500 (SPX)

The S&P 500 (SPX) met our 2430 upside target at the end of trading today, which was first mentioned in our April 25th pre-opening report entitled SPX, DJIA Target At Least An Additional 1%, 3% Advance (access requires subscription), to capture a 2.4% advance in 5 weeks.

Here is the chart from our April 25th report.

SPX daily, January through April 24th 2017

Here is the updated version of that chart as of the end of trading today.

SPX: January through June 1st 2017

 

Asbury Research subscribers can view our latest research on the US stock market, market sectors, US interest rates, ETFs and commodities, as well as a table with our current picks in US stocks, ETFs, and global indexes, by logging into the Research Center via the big gold button in the upper right corner of the screen.

Subscribers and interested investors can view our most recent closed out trade ideas by Clicking Here.

To non-subscribers:  Request more information about us, including service and pricing options, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.


Keys To This Week: The US Stock Market

The following is the most recent copy of our Keys To this Week report for the US Stock Market.  We also produce weekly Keys To this Week reports for US Market Sectors & Industry Groups, US Interest Rates & Treasuries, and Commodity-related ETFs.  Our new copy of this report will be available to Asbury Research subscribers tomorrow morning, Tuesday May 30th.

The report includes the key market factors that are likely to influence US stock market direction during the upcoming week, and also our current list of stock and ETF ideas (subscribers only).  You can view our recent stock and ETF picks with some related performance data by Clicking Here.

In an upcoming Research Excerpt we will publish a recent Keys To This Week report for US Market Sectors & Industry Groups.  You can contact us for further information about our investment research, including service options and pricing, by Clicking Here.


Conclusion, Investment Implications, Strategy
for the week of May 22nd 2017

The benchmark S&P 500 begins the week situated between two pivotal index levels at 2401 and 2348.  The broad market index’s near term bias will remain positive above 2348, but a sustained rise above 2401 would be necessary to clear the way for our 2430 initial upside target to be met.  From an indicator standpoint, however, this positive near term is suspect due to recently contracting investor asset flows, recent relative outperformance by junk bonds over the stock market, historically low put/call ratios, and very bearish seasonality from now through June.  From a strategy standpoint, amid these conditions managers/investors may consider waiting until the S&P 500 (SPX) rises and remains above 2400 before adding exposure, and tightening downside protection on existing positions on a decline below SPX 2348.

Bigger picture, and barring any upcoming geopolitical shocks, we continue to look for at least an additional 6% to 9% advance in the US index market, depending on the index, between now and year end.

Click Here for Asbury’s Stock & ETF Ideas

Click Here for Asbury’s Intermediate Term Market Outlook: Global Asset Prices

Table 1

Listed in the order of their importance and expected impact on market direction.

  1. Chart Patterns: S&P 500 (SPX). NEAR TERM BULLISH.  The green highlights in Chart 1 below show that SPX begins this week situated between 2348 support, which is the upper boundary of the March-April investor indecision area, and 2401, the March 1st benchmark high.  A sustained move through either is necessary to signal the direction of the US broad markets next near term trend.
  2. Near Term Price Momentum: Monthly Rate of Change (MROC), S&P 500 (SPX). NEAR TERM BULLISH.  Chart 2 shows that the S&P 500’s (SPX) 1-month rate-of-change (MROC) moved back into positive (bullish) territory on April 20th, indicating the post-election US stock market rally has resumed.
  3. Investor Asset Flows: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). NEAR TERM BEARISH.  The rightmost red highlights in Chart 3 below show that the total net assets invested in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) edged back below their 21-day moving average on May 4th to indicate a trend of monthly contraction characteristic of near term declines.  In addition, the chart shows these assets are also contracting below the very important $228 billion threshold, a level that previously became the springboard for the strong February broad market rise into the March 1st high.  As long as these assets remain in a trend of monthly contraction, we will expect more upcoming broad market weakness.
  4. Credit Spreads: High Yield Corporate Bond Spreads. MINOR DECISION POINT, TURNING NEAR TERM BEARISH?  The red highlights in Chart 4 below show that the BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Master II Option-Adjusted Spread rose above its 21-day moving average on April 17th to suggest an emerging trend of monthly widening characteristic of near term US stock market advances.  However, the spread must remain above 379 basis points this week for the potentially negative implications of this metric to remain valid.
  5. Relative Performance: SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). TURNING NEAR TERM BEARISH. The rightmost red highlighted area of Chart 5 below shows that JNK has been outperforming SPY since May 17th (note the inverse scale in the upper panel).  History shows that similar periods of outperformance by high yield bonds have coincided with every US broad market decline in recent history.
  6. Options Volume: CBOE Put/Call Ratio. NEAR TERM BEARISH.  Chart 4 of last week’s report showed that the CBOE Put/Call Ratio is stalling/retracting from a least bearish extreme — indicating a low ratio of put volume versus call volume — that, as a contrary indicator, has historically coincided with or closely led most of the near term peaks in the S&P 500 during the past year.
  7. Investor Sentiment: S&P 500 (SPX). NEAR TO INTERMEDIATE TERM BEARISH.  A number of different surveys of investor sentiment continue to warn of US equity prices’ vulnerability to a decline.  The red highlights in Chart 6 below show that a daily survey of individual futures trader bullishness on the S&P 500 is reversing from a previous most bullish extreme, of 81% bullish or greater, that has historically coincided with peaks in the S&P 500 (upper panel).
  8. Chart Patterns: Dow Transportation Average (DJTA), NYSE Composite Index (NYSE), Taiwan Weighted Index (TWII), Bombay SENSEX Index (BSESN), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM). INTERMEDIATE TERM BULLISH.  Our initial upside targets for these indexes are listed below.  Note that the Taiwan, Bombay, and Emerging Markets indexes are positively correlated to the S&P 500.
    • Dow Transports (DJTA): The September 2016 resumption of the 2009 uptrend targets an additional 9% rise to 9700.
    • NYSE Composite Index (NYSE). The July 2016 breakout from indecision in NYSE targets an additional 6% rise to 12,300.
    • Taiwan Weighted Index (TWII): The July 2016 breakout from a year of investor indecision in TWII targets an additional 2% rise to 10,200
    • Bombay SENSEX Index (BSESN):  Chart 6 of the May 1st Keys To This Week showed that the mid March breakout higher from 2 years of investor indecision targets an additional 17% rise to 35,700.
    • iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM):  The July 2016 breakout higher in EEM targets an additional 4% rise to 43.00.
  9. Seasonality: S&P 500 (SPX). NEAR TO INTERMEDIATE TERM BEARISH.  Chart 7 below shows that May is the 9th seasonally strongest or 5th weakest month of the year for the S&P 500 based on data since 1957.   It represents a a strong one-month decline from April, the 2nd strongest month, and leads into the 2nd weakest month of the year, June.  More charts and detail on annual, quarterly and monthly seasonal trends for 17 global asset prices  including equities, benchmark interest rates, foreign exchange, and key commodity prices based on historical data going back to the 1950s is available in our May Global Seasonal Analysis report.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Chart 3

Chart 4

Chart 5

Chart 6

Chart 7

 


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