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Here we periodically publish a chart and a brief excerpt from one of our premium research reports, a link or a video from one of our appearances in the financial media, or a notification that one of our price targets has been met, for the purpose of familiarizing potential subscriber with our investment research and to stay on the radar of those who have expressed an interest in us.

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The US Stock Market:
What We’re Expecting Through Q4 2011
(per our Sep 30th Interview On Fox Business)

With the S&P 500 trading 37 points higher today alone, and considering that it is up a whopping 204 points or +19% since October 4th, we thought this was a good time to revisit our September 30th appearance on Fox Business (see the video below)which includes our expectations for the US stock market through the end of 2011.

Many of the ideas that we stated on-air that day are already panning out nicely, including:

  • as long as the German DAX held 5150 support, which was being tested at the time of our appearance, look for a move higher in both the German and US stock markets (the DAX just hit our 3600 initial upside target this morning, which we conveyed to our subscribers on September 28th).
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  • a move above 5640 in the DAX would signal a bottom in both the German and US markets (this took place on October 10th, after which the DAX rose by 501 points or +9% in a little more than 2 weeks).
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  • we needed to see relative outperformance by the DAX versus the S&P 500 over the next month or so to indicate that “the coast was clear” to buy the US stock market (the DAX has outperformed the S&P 500 by 7% during October).
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  • we should see a sustainable bottom emerge in the US stock market during the 4th Quarter (the S&P 500 has risen by 204 points or +19% since October 4th).
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  • we said that investors may consider “participating here” in anticipation of a year-end US stock market rally (which so far has resulted in a 148 point, 13% rise in the S&P 500 since our September 30th appearance).

There are still 2 months left in 2011, but with 3 weeks of this arguably being consumed by holidays in a year when many managers: A) have underperformed their benchmarks, and/or  B) were not expecting this violent October rally, it should be an interesting finish.

Asbury Research subscribers can get our latest market analysis by logging into the Research Center of our website at www,asburyresearch.com.

Interested investors can learn more about our investment research including sample reports, client testimonials, our 2010 and YTD 2011 market calls, and John Kosar’s recent appearances in the media right here on our website.

Finally, John Kosar, Director of Research, will be back on Fox Business tomorrow between 12:00 and 12:30 ET.  Hope you tune in.

The US Stock Market:
What We’re Expecting Through Q4 2011
(per our Sep 30th Interview On Fox Business):


Appeared on:
October 27th, 2011 at 1:45 pm


5 Reasons For A Rebound In US Stocks

5 Reasons For A Rebound In US Stocks
(A Lookback On Our August 10th Commentary)

The following (green highlights) is a chart and a brief excerpt from our Wednesday August 10th Commentary entitled, 5 Reasons For A Rebound In US Stocks.

Asbury Research subscribers can view the entire report by clicking the link above and entering their username and password.

This report, which is now 10 weeks old, is a good example of the timely, independent and often counter-intuitive research that we provide for our clients.  In this case it got them in front of a 136 point, +12% rebound in the S&P 500 between August 10th and the close today (October 24th).

Perhaps even more important is that on August 10th the bellwether S&P 500 was in the midst of a 245 point, -18% collapse that occurred in less than 3 weeks — between July 21st and August 9th — at a time when investors were terrified and anticipating even more weakness and the financial press was discussing the potential for a double dip recession.


excerpted from Asbury Research’s Commentary:
5 Reasons For A Rebound In US Stocks
Wednesday, August 10th 2011

Introduction

From our August 8th Keys To This Week report (access requires subscription):

“Last Friday’s spike in NYSE volume amid oversold conditions plus extremes in investor sentiment and market breadth, all while most major US indexes are positioned just above major support levels, establishes a conducive environment for at least a near term, corrective bounce to emerge sometime this month perhaps after our 1150 initial downside target is met in the bellwether S&P 500.”

Our 1150 downside target in the S&P 500 was met later that day (August 8th), resulting in a 104 point, -8% decline since we first discussed it in our August 3rd What We’re Watching Today (access requires subscription) pre-opening market comments.  Now that our initial downside target has been met, today’s report displays and discusses 5 different market metrics that indicate favorable conditions for at least a multi-week corrective rebound to emerge from at or near this week’s lows.

Momentum (Overbought/Oversold)

Chart 1 displays the S&P 500 (SPX) since 2007 in the upper panel (black bars), along with the 1-month rate of change in the daily closing price of SPX in the lower panel (blue line).

Chart 1

This is a very simple measure of monthly overbought and oversold extremes which, as the green highlights show, has either coincided with or led literally ever near to intermediate term bottom in the US broad market index in recent history.

We acknowledge that this indicator became over-extended to the downside in late 2008 as the S&P 500 was forming what eventually became the final May 2009 bottom.  However, note that — in most cases — the indicator really did not get much lower than where it is right now before at least a near term, corrective rally emerged.

Volume

Chart 2 displays the S&P 500 daily since 2010 in the upper panel (black bars), this time with daily NYSE volume plotted in the lower panel (blue histogram).  Volume indicates urgency, and investors feel the most urgency when they are terrified rather than greedy.

Chart 2

The green highlights bear this out as they show that big spikes in NYSE volume, in excess of 20 billion shares, have occurred when the US broad market was plummeting and investors were apparently capitulating on long positions — because they were collectively terrified of an even deeper decline.  The chart shows that this capitulation process is precisely when investors should consider buying, not selling.

With Tuesday’s NYSE volume in excess of 24 billion shares, its highest level since late June 2010 (which immediately preceded the early July 2010 bottom in SPX), these data suggest favorable conditions for another market bottom to emerge soon, probably within the next week or so.

Volatility

Chart 3 displays a 2-year daily chart of the S&P 500 in the upper panel (black bars) with a daily chart of the VIX (blue bars) in the lower panel.  The VIX, often referred to as “the fear gauge”, is a popular measure of the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options.

Chart 3

The green highlights on the chart show that spikes in the VIX to 30 or higher, indicating an extreme in investor fear (of even lower US equity prices), has coincided with or led every significant bottom in the S&P 500 in recent history.  The rightmost green vertical highlight between both panels show that the VIX has reached another such extreme now, and its highest level since late May 2010 (which immediately preceded a quick +9% rebound in SPX during the first half of June and eventually led into the 2010 lows in early July).

Similar to the volume spikes as shown in Chart 2 above, when the market is collectively this fearful investors should be looking to buy, not sell.

Market Breadth

Chart 5 displays the S&P 500 daily since 2010 in the upper panel, with the NYSE 26-week New Highs/New Lows Ratio plotted in the lower panel (blue line).  This metric measures 6-month bullish and bearish extremes in NYSE market breadth.

Chart 5

Conclusion & Investment Implications

The monthly rate of change in the S&P 500, NYSE volume statistics, market volatility, retail investor sentiment, and the latest market breadth data concur that the current sharp decline in the US stock market is unlikely to continue appreciably further from here, if at all, without at least a multi-week corrective rebound first.  The common denominator of all the metrics in this report is indications of investor panic — which history tells us is precisely when investors should be buying.

Although current market conditions show the potential for one more eventual leg lower (perhaps during September) before the May US stock market decline runs its course, investors may consider putting some capital to work now, at these levels, in order to participate in whatever type of rally — either corrective or directional — that emerges from here.


The market did indeed put in one more leg lower — as we suspected — as the S&P 500 declined to a new 2011 low of 1075 on October 4th.  However, our contention that investors start putting capital to work on October 10th  — at a time when the rest of the market was selling — put our clients in a position to capitalize on a significant rally in what has otherwise been a poor year for the US stock market.

Our Commentaries are one of 8 different reports that we produce for Asbury Research subscribers at various intervals throughout the month, is a detailed weekly outline of key market factors and corresponding charts that are most likely to influence US financial market direction during the upcoming week.

Professional investors can learn more about our investment research right here on our website which includes sample reports, client testimonials, our 2010 and 2011 market calls, and John Kosar’s recent appearances in the media.

Contact us for additional information online or by calling 224-569-4112.


The VIX: It Looks A Lot Like Summer 2010

The following (green highlights) is a chart and a brief excerpt from our Monday October 17th Keys To This Week report (click here for a recent sample copy).

Key To This Week, one of 8 different reports that we produce for Asbury Research subscribers at various intervals throughout the month, is a detailed weekly outline of key market factors and corresponding charts that are most likely to influence US financial market direction during the upcoming week.


Asbury Research’s Keys To This Week
October 17th, 2011
Key #4 of 9 on The US Stock Market: The VIX

Key #4: Volatility: The VIX.  INTERMEDIATE TERM BULLISH.  The VIX finished Friday’s session at 29.24, which marks the first time that “the fear gauge” has been below 30.00 since August 4th

Chart 2 shows that the last time the VIX atypically lingered above 30.00 for an extended period was between May and July 2010, which led into the July 1st low in the S&P 500 that  preceded a +36% advance into the May 2011 high.

The S&P 500 and The VIX: August 2009 Through The Present

continued…


Asbury Research subscribers can view the entire report — which also covers global stock markets, US interest rates, and the US Dollar — by logging into the Research Center via the button at the upper right edge of this page.

Professional investors can learn more about our investment research right here on our website which includes sample reports, client testimonials, our 2010 and 2011 market calls, and John Kosar’s recent appearances in the media.

Contact us for additional information online or by calling 224-569-4112.


Will The Lights Go Out In The Utilities Sector?

The following (green highlights) is a chart and a brief excerpt from our Monday October 10th Keys To This Week report (click here for a recent sample copy).

Key To This Week, one of 8 different reports that we produce for Asbury Research subscribers at various intervals throughout the month, is a detailed weekly outline of key market factors and corresponding charts that are most likely to influence US financial market direction during the upcoming week.


Asbury Research’s Keys To This Week
October 10th, 2011
US Stock Market Sectors: Utilities

Chart 5 measures the flow of investor assets in and out of the various sectors of the S&P 500 via a pie chart that displays the percentage of sector bet-related assets, as represented by the Rydex Sector Funds, that are invested in each sector of the S&P 500, as represented by the iShares Select Sector SPDR ETFs.

The chart shows that, through the end of last week, 10% of all sector bet-related assets were being allocated to Utilities – which is more than triple the 3% daily historic average since 1998 (when the Sector SPDR ETSs began trading).

These data indicate that Utilities are also severely over-invested versus the other sectors of the US broad market indexwhich has historically coincided with the beginning of multi-month trends of relative sector underperformance.

continued…


Asbury Research subscribers can view the entire report — which also covers global stock markets, US interest rates, and the US Dollar — by logging into the Research Center via the button at the upper right edge of this page.

Professional investors can learn more about our investment research right here on our website which includes sample reports, client testimonials, our 2010 and 2011 market calls, and John Kosar’s recent appearances in the media.

Contact us for additional information online or by calling 224-569-4112.


The US Dollar: Back To Breakeven For 2011. Now What?

Our What We’re Watching Today pre-market opening charts and comments are one of 8 different reports that Asbury Research produces for subscribers, at various intervals throughout the month.

The following (green highlights) is an excerpt from our September 9th What We’re Watching Today report entitled, US Dollar Flirting With A Bullish Breakout.


Asbury Research’s What We’re Watching Today
The US Dollar
September 9th, 2011

In our September 7th What We’re Watching Today (access requires subscription) we pointed out that Euro/US Dollar (EURUSD) was testing major underlying support at 140.20 – which represents major overhead resistance for the US currency versus the euro.  Since then EURUSD has declined by an additional 3% to 1.3697, while at the same time the chart below shows that the US Dollar Index is negotiating a bullish breakout of its own.

(NOTE: The US Dollar Index is comprised of six component currencies: the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc and is 77% weighted towards Europe. The Japanese yen comprises just 14% of this index.)

The chart shows that the US Dollar Index is negotiating the upper boundary of its recent range at 76.78 to 77.18 today , which represents its 200-day moving average (orange line, a widely-watched major trend proxy) and its May 23rd and July 12th highs (upper blue highlights).  Also noteworthy is that today is the first day that the index has traded above its 200-day moving average on an intraday basis since September 13th 2010.

A close meaningfully (more than just a few ticks) above 77.18 would: 1) confirm a near to intermediate term bottom in the index at its May lows, 2) suggest that a major bullish trend change is emerging in the US currency, and 3) target an initial +5% rise to 80.50.


The close above 77.18 that we were looking for took place later that day, as the US Dollar Index closed at 77.90 on September 9th.  It has since risen by 2.53 or +3.2% to 80.43 thus far today, essentially meeting our 80.50 initial upside target.  In addition, the September rise in the Dollar brings it back to unchanged for 2011 for the first time since February 16th.

The rise in the US Dollar Index over the past month was, to a large degree, more of a least of two evils, flight-to-relative-safety out of the euro, rather than a ringing endorsement of the greenback.  Accordingly, we will view the path of the Dollar from here, as it negotiates breakeven for the year,  as an indirect indication of investors’ collective assessment of the European debt crisis — which has been crippling the US stock market since May.


Europe’s Influence On US Stocks In Q4:
John Kosar on Fox Business

John Kosar, Director of Research, appeared on Fox Business on September 29th 2011 to discuss the recent inter-market relationship between the German DAX and the S&P 500, and its implications for US stock market direction in Q4 2011.

We covered this topic in much greater detail in our September 28th  and September 15th What We’re Watching Today pre-opening comments, and in our September 8th US Financial Market Chart Book.

Asbury Research subscribers can access these reports by logging into our Research Center via the button at the upper right corner of the screen.

Professional investors can learn more about our investment research right here on our website which includes sample reports, client testimonials, our 2010 and 2011 market calls, and John Kosar’s recent appearances in the media.

Contact us for additional information online or by calling 224-569-4112.

Europe’s Influence On US Stocks In Q4:
John Kosar on Fox Business:


Appeared on:
September 30th, 2011 at 7:04 am


Seasonality: This Week Could Be Rough,
But Better Days Ahead?

The following is an excerpt from our September 2nd Global Seasonal Analysis report (access requires subscription), one of 8 different reports that Asbury Research produces for subscribers at various intervals throughout the month.

S&P 500 Monthly Seasonal Pattern Since 1957

In the US S&P 500 Index the green bar in the chart below highlights September as the seasonally weakest month of the year in the US broad market index since 1957.  September represents a sharp one-month decline from August, which is the 6th strongest month, but also leads into a Q4 recovery that accelerates into December.  

November and December are the 3rd and 1st seasonally strongest months for the S&P 500 during this 54-year period.

S&P 500 Weekly Seasonal Pattern In Q3 Since 1957

Our next chart breaks the seasonal pattern in the S&P 500 down further, into a quarterly time frame via 13 weekly increments.  The green columns show that the month of September includes three of the four seasonally weakest weeks of the entire 3rd Quarter , including this upcoming week which has been the weakest of the entire quarter.

I referred to the charts above back on June 2nd when I was a guest of CNBC’s Closing Bell (click the link to view it), during which I pointed out the 54-year seasonal tendency for a modest seasonal US stock market rebound in July that leads into acute seasonal weakness into September.  This year the S&P 500 rose into the 1356 July 7th high, according to the historical pattern, before collapsing by 254 points or 19% into the August lows – which are now being re-tested as of the end of last week.

Althoughthe seasonal tendency since 1957 has been for even more acute seasonal weakness during the last week of September, our seasonality data for the 4th Quarter does suggest the potential for a significant rebound that – assuming the larger seasonal pattern as shown in the first chart emerges again this year – could precede a performance chasing-driven recovery into year end.


As I stated in my CNBC interview, seasonality data are particularly useful when they corroborate what we are seeing in other key market factors including intermarket relationships, investor sentiment, relative performance, market breadth and volatility.

Asbury Research subscribers can get our latest market analysis by logging into the Research Center of our website at www,asburyresearch.com.

Interested investors can learn more about our investment research including sample reports, client testimonials, our 2010 and YTD 2011 market calls, and John Kosar’s recent appearances in the media right here on our website.


Right Now, Europe Is Driving The Bus

I just returned from a 3-day trip to the Northeast.  In between client visits I had the opportunity to speak at the September meeting of the Boston Chapter of the Market Technician’s Association, which was held on the trading floor of State Street Global Markets in Boston.

The following is one of the 25 charts from my presentation, which was taken from our September 8th US Financial Market Chart Book.  Subscribers can log into our Research Center (via the button at the top right edge of the screen) to view it.

We have been particularly interested in European equities over the past several months due to the downward pressure that European  sovereign debt issues have been exerting on the US market — which has resulted in the German DAX underperforming the SPX by a whopping 23% since June 22nd.

The chart shows that, as of our August 8th report, the DAX was positioned right on top of major support at 5178 to 5125 — which we considered to be a key inflection point for the DAX  from which its larger March 2009 advance should resume — if it was still intact.

Just this week (since Monday August 12th) the DAX has already aggressively rebounded from that support by 690 points or +14%.  Meanwhile, the positively-correlated S&P 500 has coincidentally risen by 84 points or +7%.

This is a good example of how understanding intermarket relationships, which is a big part of our analytical process, can often identify investment opportunities that might otherwise go unnoticed.

 Professional investors can learn more about our investment research right here on our website which includes sample reports, client testimonials, our 2010 market calls, and John Kosar’s recent appearances in the media.

Call us at 224-569-4122 for additional information, or to begin your access to our research.


John Kosar To Speak At Boston MTA Event
On September 13th, 2011

John Kosar, Director of Research, will be in Boston on September 13th to display and discuss Asbury Research’s September US Financial Market Chart Book for the Boston Chapter of the Market Technician’s Association.

The US Financial Market Chart Book is a collection of key charts and data analysis that convey our best investment ideas for the upcoming month and quarter in the US stock market, market sectors and US interest rates.  Our analysis is based on a number of key market factors including price and trend, market breadth, intermarket relationships, relative strength, sector rotation, and investor sentiment.

Click here to view a recent sample of our US Financial Market Chart Book, plus samples of our other reports.

This event is co-sponsored by State Street Global Markets, and will be held on the State Street Global Market trading floor.  Due to limited space for this event we will register the first 40 RSVPs.  RSVPs must be received by noon Sept. 12th.

DATE: Tuesday, September 13th, 2011

TIME: 5:00 PM

LOCATION:  State Street Global Markets
                           State Street Financial Center
                           One Lincoln Street, 5th Floor
                           Boston, MA 02111

RSVP — IMPORTANT:  Space is limited to 40 registrants for this event.  If you register and can not make it, please let us know so we can add someone from the waitlist.  MTA members may register online. Non-members please contact Shane Skwarek, and bill_kelleher@hotmail.com to register.

Note: The September US Financial Market Chart Book will be made available to Asbury Research Subscribers on Friday, September 9th.


Will The Gold Rally Continue?

In our Logic-Over-Emotion Investing blog postings we typically feature an investment idea and a chart from one of our recent Asbury Research premium reports.

Today’s posting (green highlights) is an excerpt from our September 2nd Global Seasonal Analysis report, pertaining to seasonality in gold prices.

Global Seasonal Analysis, one of 8 different reports that we produce for our subscribers at various intervals throughout the month, displays and analyzes annual, quarterly and monthly seasonal patterns for 17 different financial assets — including global equity prices, global benchmark interest rates, major foreign exchange rates, and key commodity prices — based on historical data going back to the 1950s.


excerpt from Global Seasonal Analysis
Gold Prices (London PM Fixing)
September 2nd, 2011

The green bar on the chart below identifies September as the seasonally strongest month of the year for gold prices (London PM fixing) since 1977.  It represents the second of a five-month period of mostly acute seasonal strength that runs through year end, interrupted by one month of acute seasonal weakness in October — which is the 2nd weakest month during this period. 

The August through December period includes the four seasonally strongest months for gold prices during this 34-year period.

The height of the green bar on the chart indicates that, on average since 1977, gold prices have risen by 2.90% during September.  The red line shows that during 2010 prices generally adhered to gold’s 34-year annual seasonal trend of a March to May advance, a June-July setback, then more strength during the second half of the year.

continued…


Asbury Research subscribers can view the rest of our September 2nd Global Seasonal Analysis by logging into the Research Center via the button at the upper right corner of the screen.

Professional investors can learn more about our investment research right here on our website which includes sample reports, client testimonials, our 2010 market calls, and John Kosar’s recent appearances in the media.

You can also call us at 224-569-4112 for further information.


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