Research Excerpts

History Warns Today’s Stock Market Rally Won’t Last

Posted on: Tuesday, April 12th, 2016

The following is a brief excerpt from Monday morning’s (April 11th)  Keys To this Week report for the US stock market.

Keys To This Week, one of 9 different reports we produce during the month, displays and discusses 10 key market factors that are most likely to influence the direction of the US stock market over the next several weeks to several months.

Key #10 of 10 of this week’s report, with the accompanying chart, appears below.


Asbury Research’s Keys To This Week for the US Stock Market
Monday, April 11th 2016

Key #10 of 10: Seasonality in the S&P 500 (SPX).

NEAR TO INTERMEDIATE TERM NEGATIVE. 

Chart 7 of last week’s report (access requires subscription) a quarterly chart, showed that that the 3rd week of April, which is the week of April 18th this year, is the strongest of the entire quarter, after which the index declines into the second to last week of June, the weakest of the quarter.

Keys To This Week, Chart 6 of 6

Keys To This Week, Chart 6 of 6

Chart 6 above, the daily version of last week’s chart, shows that the S&P 500 statistically peaks for the month on the 7th day of April, which is April 11th.

continued…


Editor’s Note: Seasonality data is a statistical composite of how the price of an asset typically moves during a specific period of time, based on historical data over a defined number of years.  Although history may not always repeat, it usually rhymes — especially in certain asset prices like the US stock market, US interest rates and crude oil prices.

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