Research Excerpts

How We Anticipated Last Week’s Spike In Oil Prices

Posted on: Sunday, July 2nd, 2017

The graphic below is Page 8 of 9 from our June 22nd Investor Sentiment & Asset Flows Tracker (access requires subscription), which “follows the money” in US financial markets.

Extremes in investor positioning typically lead reversals in financial asset prices, and this is a good example of that.

From Asbury Research’s June 22nd Investor Sentiment & Asset Flows Tracker

Our monthly Investor Sentiment & Asset Flows Tracker report displays and analyzes a broad list of investor asset flow- and survey-based measures of both professional and retail investor sentiment, and discusses their directional implications for the US financial markets based on previous historical market reaction to similar conditions.

This page from that report points out that crude oil investors were at a pessimistic extreme on oil prices that, as a contrary indicator, has historically preceded significant price reversals.  West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices actually bottomed the day before our report was distributed to subscribers, at $42.05 per barrel on June 21st, before spiking higher by $4.19 per barrel or 10% over the next 6 trading sessions, following a 26.4% collapse since the beginning of the year. 

And there appears to be room for even more upside.

By the way, these same metrics work equally well for the stock market, market sectors and industry groups, interest rates, and commodities — all which are included in the pages of our report.

 

Asbury Research subscribers can view the entire June 22nd Investor Sentiment & Asset Flows Tracker report, as well as our current research on the US stock market, market sectors, US interest rates, ETFs and commodities, and a table that includes our current and recent stock and ETF picks, by logging into the Research Center via the big gold button in the upper right corner of the screen.

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