Research Excerpts

Individual Investors Are At 5-Year
Bullish Extremes On US Stocks

Posted on: Friday, January 13th, 2012

The following (green highlights) is a brief excerpt and one of the 12 charts that appear in our January 12th Sentiment Survey report.

Sentiment Survey displays and analyzes a broad array of both professional and retail investor sentiment data that pertain to the major areas of the US financial markets, including US stocks, US interest rates and the US Dollar.


Excerpt from Asbury Research’s Sentiment Survey
January 12th, 2012
The US Stock Market

Chart 4 measures investor sentiment according to individual investors via the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey, which is plotted by the blue line in the lower panel since 2006. A corresponding weekly bar chart of the S&P 500 appears in the upper panel.

Chart 4

Unlike other metrics in this report, the red highlights on this chart show that these near term-oriented trend followers have just reached an historic most bullish extreme of 69%, a level which has previously coincided with or led every near term peak in the S&P 500 in recent history.

This metric warns of the US stock market’s vulnerability to a near term decline from at or near its current level, which appears likely to begin between now and the end of January.

continued…


Asbury Research subscribers can access the entire 9 page report, including 3 more charts that pertain to the US stock market, by visiting www.asburyresearch.com and logging into the Research Center.

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