Research Excerpts

One Key To 2nd Quarter Market Direction

Posted on: Wednesday, May 4th, 2016

Global Seasonal Analysis , one of 9 different reports we produce for our subscribers, is a monthly report that displays and analyzes annual, quarterly and monthly seasonal trends for 17 global asset prices including equities, benchmark interest rates, foreign exchange, and key commodity prices based on historical data going back to the 1950s.

Our new May 2016 Global Seasonal Analysis report was sent to subscribers earlier today.

The following is an excerpt from our April Global Seasonal Analysis report:


S&P 500 Weekly Seasonal Pattern For Q2 Since 1957

The next chart breaks the seasonal pattern in the S&P 500 down further, into a quarterly time frame via 13 weekly increments, and highlights the month of April in green. 

S&P 500: 2nd Quarter Seasonal Trend

S&P 500: 2nd Quarter Seasonal Trend

The chart shows that the third week of April (the week of April 18th) is the strongest of the entire 2nd Quarter, and that the last two week of June are the 1st and 3rd weakest of the quarter.

continued in the Research Center>>>


The next chart shows that the the S&P 500 did in fact peak during the week of April 18th, on April 20th at 2,111, and has already declined by 64 points or 3% into today’s 2,047 low.

S&P 500 daily since January 2016

S&P 500 daily since January 2016

Moreover, the first chart shows that the S&P 500 has historically continued to decline into the last week of June, and then into the end of the quarter, based on data since 1957.

Any one market metric by itself, including the seasonality data shown above, has very limited predictive value.  However, when the more than 20 different metrics that we track , including:

  • intermarket relationships
  • investor asset flows
  • relative performance
  • investor sentiment
  • price patterns and trend
  • credit spreads
  • volatility
  • market breadth

align with each other, as is the case right now, it is typically a very strong indication of where US and global asset prices are headed over the next one to several months.

Asbury Research subscribers can view our April Global Seasonal Analysis report, and all current and previous investment research, by logging into the Research Center via the big gold button in the upper right corner of the screen.

Interested investors can request more information about us, including sample research, services and pricing, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.