Research Excerpts

Will The Gold Rally Continue?

Posted on: Saturday, September 3rd, 2011

In our Logic-Over-Emotion Investing blog postings we typically feature an investment idea and a chart from one of our recent Asbury Research premium reports.

Today’s posting (green highlights) is an excerpt from our September 2nd Global Seasonal Analysis report, pertaining to seasonality in gold prices.

Global Seasonal Analysis, one of 8 different reports that we produce for our subscribers at various intervals throughout the month, displays and analyzes annual, quarterly and monthly seasonal patterns for 17 different financial assets — including global equity prices, global benchmark interest rates, major foreign exchange rates, and key commodity prices — based on historical data going back to the 1950s.


excerpt from Global Seasonal Analysis
Gold Prices (London PM Fixing)
September 2nd, 2011

The green bar on the chart below identifies September as the seasonally strongest month of the year for gold prices (London PM fixing) since 1977.  It represents the second of a five-month period of mostly acute seasonal strength that runs through year end, interrupted by one month of acute seasonal weakness in October — which is the 2nd weakest month during this period. 

The August through December period includes the four seasonally strongest months for gold prices during this 34-year period.

The height of the green bar on the chart indicates that, on average since 1977, gold prices have risen by 2.90% during September.  The red line shows that during 2010 prices generally adhered to gold’s 34-year annual seasonal trend of a March to May advance, a June-July setback, then more strength during the second half of the year.

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Asbury Research subscribers can view the rest of our September 2nd Global Seasonal Analysis by logging into the Research Center via the button at the upper right corner of the screen.

Professional investors can learn more about our investment research right here on our website which includes sample reports, client testimonials, our 2010 market calls, and John Kosar’s recent appearances in the media.

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