In our previous May 19th Research Excerpt, entitled Long Term Interest Rates At Major Decision Point, we provided an excerpt from our May 16th Keys To This Week report (access requires subscription) which pointed out that the yield of the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note was testing a major inflection point at 3.13%

Knowing where these key levels are, ahead of time, is the next best thing to knowing how the market is going to react to them.

From that May 16th report:

Our primary focus this week is on the market’s reaction to major yield resistance in the 10-Year Treasury Note at 3.08% to 3.13%, which is currently being tested.The next significant move in these benchmark yields, either up to the 3.34% to 3.68% area, or back down towards 3.00%, perhaps to the 2.88% to 2.77% area, is likely to begin from this major inflection point.  More intermediate term metrics favor a decline back toward 3.00% or lower.

The pink highlights in the newly-updated chart below show that 10-Year yields actually peaked at 3.11% on May 17th before collapsing all the way back to 2.77% by May 29th, which is an atypically sharp decline of 34 basis points in just 8 business days.

US 10-Year Treasury Yields daily since 2015

The next level of underlying yield support is major support at 2.62% to 2.47%.  This major support area must contain US 10-Year yields on the downside for the current major trend of rising long term US interest rates to remain valid and intact.  A trend of rising interest rates is generally characteristic of a thriving, growing economy, while declining interest rates suggest an economy that is struggling. 

Why is being aware of these key interest rate levels so important?  Because the yield of the 10-Year Treasury Note is the benchmark for long term interest rates in the US, and is also used as the common denominator for various credit spreads that include mortgage-backed, corporates, and agencies, all which are used to set the pricing/risk for various interest rate-related products.

Disclaimer: This report is provided for information purposes only. Past performance may not necessarily indicate future results. No inferences may be made and no guarantees of profitability are being stated by Asbury Research LLC.  The risk of loss trading in financial assets can be substantial.  Therefore, you should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Asbury Research subscribers can view our latest research on US interest rates, as well as the US stock market, market sectors, ETFs and commodities — plus a table with our current picks in individual US stocks and ETFs — by logging into the Research Center via the big gold button in the upper right corner of the screen.

Subscribers and interested investors can view our recent closed out trade ideas by Clicking Here.

To non-subscribers:  Request more information about us, including service and pricing options, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.

Asbury Investment Management (AIM): Our Latest Video

In addition to publishing periodic Research Excerpts from Asbury Research, every several weeks we also produce a video that takes an up-to-date look the markets from an asset management standpoint, and shows how Asbury Investment Management is actually managing client assets using  Asbury Research ideas.

Click Here To Watch Our Latest Video

For further information about Asbury Research Management, please email or call 1-844-4-ASBURY (1-844-427 2879).


Invest like a Professional. Get Started Today

Don’t miss any more opportunities. Sign up today and see how Asbury Research can give your investments the edge they need in a turbulent market.
Start Today!