US Stock Market At A Major Decision Point
In our previous August 7th update, we pointed out that our Asbury 6 key market internals had just turned Negative as of the market close on Thursday, August 1st. Our Correction Protection Model (CPM) shifted to a corroborating “Risk Off” status a day later, as of the open on Friday August 2nd, further warning of upcoming market weakness.
Since then, the green highlights in Chart 1 below show that the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) twice tested and held major underlying support at 2817 to 2800, on August 5th and 15th. The current 2019 major uptrend in the US broad market remains up (bullish) above this support.
The red highlights show that minor overhead resistance exists just above the market at 2941 to 2954. The minor trend in SPX remains down (bearish) below this resistance.
SPX’s current position between these key levels indicates the US broad market is in the midst of a minor corrective decline within a major advance.
Meanwhile, Table 1 below shows that, through August 20th, 5 of our Asbury 6 key near term market metrics remain in Negative territory, keeping its August 1st near term bearish bias for US equities intact.
It would currently take a sustained rise above 2941 to 2954, on a positive shift in our Asbury 6 and Correction Protection Model, to indicate the current corrective phase is over and the larger 2019 advance is resuming.
Conversely, a failure to rise back above 2941 to 2054 and a subsequent decline below 2817 to 2800 would indicate an emerging major bearish trend change and clear the way for significantly lower US equity prices.
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