The US Stock Market: On The Verge Of A Bear Market

Our previous Asbury Research’s Stock Market Update & Asbury Investment Management Video, dated December 14th, was entitled US Stock Market: On The Brink Of A Deeper DeclineThe benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) closed at 2600 on that day and subsequently collapsed by an additional 253 points or 9.7% by December 26th.

The US stock market, and global stock markets in general, remain in the midst of a major downtrend that we first started warning investors about, and first started protecting investor portfolios from, back in early October.  You can go back through previous issues of this update to see how we were approaching this situation as it emerged.

Although there are a lot of additional market metrics that we use to determine risk-on from risk-off investing environments, our overall methodology for avoiding risk and protecting client portfolios during this very tough period has been a simple 2-step process:

  1. identify the key market levels below the market in the major US stock indexes, and
  2. measure the market’s internal strength at each one of these levels to determine if there is enough of a positive change to first facilitate a bottom and then, ideally, to fuel a bullish reversal.

Several key price levels below the market have already been tested but, at least thus far, none of them has held because our key market internals — which we call The Asbury 6 as shown in the table below — have been negative across the board.

The Asbury 6 through 12-26-2018

When all Asbury 6 are positive, market internals are the most conducive to adding risk to portfolios. Each negative reading adds an additional element of risk to participating in current or new investment ideas.

We update this table daily and make it available to Asbury Research subscribers.  The Asbury 6 is also an important component of the process we use to manage risk in client portfolios — which helped us to avoid most of this nasty 4th Quarter decline.

The video below shows in more detail how we have navigated these treacherous conditions for Asbury Research Management clients over the past several weeks.

Asbury Investment Management (AIM): Our Latest Video

Thank you for your interest in Asbury Investment Management. We attempt to provide the highest level risk management and investment performance available.  Anyone can provide you exposure to the markets. We bring our undivided attention, skill and experience to investing AND protecting our clients capital. We hope you will find these bi-weekly commentary and video reviews informative and helpful. Please don’t ever hesitate to ask if you would like to have a more in-depth conversation about our processes.

Click Here for our 12/27/2018 Video Review, which explains how we have used Asbury Research’s market analysis and investment ideas to professionally manage client portfolios.

For further information about Asbury Research Management, please email or call 1-844-4-ASBURY (1-844-427-2879).


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