The following is a brief stock market overview from Asbury Research, and below it a link to a video from Asbury Investment Management (AIM) which explains how we are utilizing Asbury Research investment ideas and strategies to professionally manage client portfolios. Questions, comments welcome. Click Here to contact us.
Asbury Research: US Stock Market Update, September 5, 2018
Perhaps the most important market event since our previous update two weeks ago is the new all-time high in the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX), which exceeded the previous January high of 2873. After setting a new all-time high of 2017 last week, SPX has since backed up to retest the 2873 area today — this time as underlying support. This is where the 2018 advance should resume if it’s still healthy, and the fact that 5 of our “Asbury 6” key market internals (monthly price momentum, relative performance of stocks versus junk bonds, ETF asset flows, market breadth, corporate bond spreads, and volume) are currently in positive territory suggest that it is. Should more broad market strength indeed emerge from the SPX 2873 area, we would expect some new market leadership to come from the semiconductor and biotech space.
The caveat to these positive technical/quantitative market conditions is a compelling list of potential market headwinds including:
- we are currently in the 10th year of an advance that began in March 2009,
- September is by far the seasonally weakest month of the year in the S&P 500 (see chart below),
- the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates,
- 44 of the 51 global stock indexes that we track (83%) are in major downtrends based on their 200-day moving averages, and many of these are positively correlated to the US market,
- and a growing list of geopolitical concerns right in front of November mid term elections in the US.
So, although our current market bias is positive (bullish), we are a little more cautious than usual right now and will be aggressively protecting capital on any meaningful changes to either 1) the trend in the major US indexes or 2) market internals as mentioned above.
Consistent updates on the current condition of the market, including our Asbury 6 market internals, plus access to our Correction Protection Model (CPM) are all available with an Asbury Research subscription. Contact Us for sample reports and pricing.
Asbury Investment Management (AIM): Our Latest Video
Click Here for our 09/05/2018 Video Review, which explains how we have used our latest research to professionally manage client portfolios.
For further information about Asbury Research Management, please email firstname.lastname@example.org
or call 1-844-4-ASBURY (1-844-427 2879).