Research Excerpts

August Seasonality In Long Term US Interest Rates

Posted on: Thursday, July 31st, 2014

Global Seasonal Analysis, one of 8 different reports that we produce for subscribers throughout the month, displays and analyzes annual, quarterly and monthly seasonal trends for 17 global asset prices including equities, benchmark interest rates, foreign exchange, and key commodity prices based on historical data going back to the 1950s.

The following is an excerpt from this month’s report.


US 10-Year Yield Monthly Seasonal Pattern Since 1957

The teal bar on the chart at upper left highlights August as theseasonally weakest month of the year for the yield of the US 10-Year Treasury Note based on data since 1957. It represents a sharp one-month seasonal collapse from July, the 3rd strongest month, and the beginning of an extended period of seasonal weakness for these yields that extends through December and include the five weakest months of the year.

Chart 7 of 23

Chart 7 of 23

The depth of the teal bar indicates that, on average since 1957, the yield of the 10-Year has declined by 1.24% in August.

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