The following is a brief excerpt and one of three charts from this morning’s report, entitled Be Wary Of This Morning’s Rally (access requires subscription), which was emailed to Asbury Research subscribers right after the US stock market opening this morning. 

The bellwether subsequently S&P 500 peaked at 2072 at 9:45 ET this morning before collapsing by 23 points or 1.1% into this morning’s lows at 2049.

Research Report: What We’re Watching Today
Date: January 2nd, 2015
Asset Class: The US Stock Market
Title: Be Wary Of This Morning’s Rally

Despite this morning’s strong US stock market opening, recently contracting investor assets in both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 combined with looming seasonal weakness in the S&P 500 warn that this strength may be unsustainable. Managers may consider protecting open profits / tightening protective strategies unless these ETF flows begin to significantly expand.

Chart 3 below shows that the first week of January is the seasonally strongest of the  entire 1st Quarter in the S&P 500, and then collapses into the second and third weeks of the month (the weeks of January 12th and 19th this year) which are the 4th and 2nd weakest of the quarter.  This seasonal weakness then extends further, into the final week of February which is the seasonally weakest of the quarter.

Chart 3 of 3
Chart 3 of 3


This morning’s report is a good example of the kind of forward looking investment research that we have been providing Asbury Research subscribers with for the past 10 years.

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