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Here we periodically publish a chart and a brief excerpt from one of our premium research reports, a link or a video from one of our appearances in the financial media, or a notification that one of our price targets has been met, for the purpose of familiarizing potential subscriber with our investment research and to stay on the radar of those who have expressed an interest in us.

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Reviewing Our July 12th Educational Webinar: Where We Were & Where We’re Going

Monday, November 12th marked exactly 4 months since our July 12th 2018 webinar for Fidelity Investments, entitled Asbury Research’s 2018 Mid Year Investment Update.  In these webinars, which we have been regularly presenting to a number of investment firms and professional organizations since 2015, we show serious investors some of the tools that a veteran market strategist uses to improve investment performance while also protecting assets, and hopefully teach them how to be better informed and more successful investors.

The following market analysis is taken from the Executive Summary of our July 12th webinar for Fidelity (black text), followed by how the financial markets we discussed have fared since then (red highlights).


US Stock Market Outlook, July 12th: 

Despite recent geopolitical jitters,the US stock market is still in the midst of positive trends in most indexes, and amid mostly favorable technical/quantitative conditions for more strength. Specifically, we are expecting the  benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) to rise by as much as an additional 7%.

The S&P 500 proceeded to rise by an additional 6% into the 2941 September 21st high.

Market Size (where to be invested), July 12th:

Large Cap stocks remain amid favorable conditions for upcoming relative outperformance versus the S&P 1500.  Meanwhile, Small Cap is at opposite over-loved extremes and thus vulnerable to upcoming relative underperformance versus the S&P 1500.

Since July 12th, the iShares LargeCap S&P 500 ETF (IVV) has outperformed the iShares S&P 1500 Index Fund (ITOT) by 27% through October 24th.  Meanwhile, the iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Index underperformed the iShares S&P 1500 Index Fund (ITOT) by 21% also since October 24th.

Market Sectors (what to be invested in), July 12th:

We are currently overweight Utilities, Consumer Staples, Health Care and Real Estate, and are outright positive on Consumer Discretionary.

Since then:

  • The SPDR Utilities Sector ETF (XLU) outperformed the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by 11% through October 24th
  • The SPDR Consumer Staples ETF (XLP) outperformed SPY by 11% through October 30th
  • The SPDR Health Care Sector ETF (XLV) outperformed SPY by 8% through November 12th
  • The SPDR Real Estate Sector ETF (XLRE) outperformed SPY by 3% through November 13th
  • The SPDR Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) rose by 7% through October 1st

No one can see into the future, and no one gets the markets right all the time.  We are certainly no exception.  But we do firmly believe that our comprehensive blend of technical, quantitative and behavioral market metrics — combined with almost 40 years of experience — can help to identify good investing opportunities in all market environments and, more importantly, can significantly limit losses and protect capital during adverse market moves.

Contact us to get more information about our research and services for professional and individual investors.

Asbury Research subscribers can view our latest research on the US stock market, market sectors, US interest rates, ETFs and commodities, as well as a table with our current picks in US stocks, ETFs, and global indexes, by logging into the Research Center via the big gold button in the upper right corner of the screen.

To non-subscribers:  Request more information about us, including service and pricing options, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.

For asset management, please visit the Asbury Investment Management (AIM) website.


Asbury Research’s Stock Market Update & Asbury Investment Management Video: November 8th, 2018

US Stock Market: Recovering From An 11% October Correction

In our October 25th report, we said that our Asbury 6 key market internals — as well as our Correction Protection Model (CPM) — were all in Negative territory as of early October, indicating a “risk-off environment” and a market that was vulnerable to a corrective decline.  The benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) did indeed correct lower, by 11% between October 3rd and October 29th but, due to these timely signals from our metrics, we were able to 1) identify the danger for Asbury Research subscribers and 2) actually avoid most of the decline for Asbury Investment Management (AIM) clients.

As it stands right now, however, both CPM and our Asbury 6 are indicating the internal condition of the market has significantly improved.  One of our Asbury 6, ETF asset flows, is shown in the lower panel of the chart below.

SPX and SPY Total Net Assets

The rightmost green highlights show that the daily total net assets invested in the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY, which tracks the S&P 500) have moved back above their 21-day (monthly, our tactical time frame) moving average as of Wednesday, November 7th.  This indicates an emerging trend of monthly expansion, similar to that which fueled higher prices in the S&P 500 (upper panel) from mid September to early October, and also from early July to late August.

Expanding investor assets indicate investor conviction in higher prices.  As long as this emerging new trend of monthly expansion continues, the current broad market rally from  the late October lows is likely to continue.


Asbury Investment Management (AIM): Our Latest Video

Click Here for our 11/8/2018 Video Review, which explains how we have used our latest research to professionally manage client portfolios.

For further information about Asbury Research Management, please email or call 1-844-4-ASBURY (1-844-427-2879).


Asbury Research’s Stock Market Update & Asbury Investment Management Video: October 25th 2018

Stock Market Breaking Major Support Amid Weak Internals

From our October 8th Keys To This Week report (access requires subscription):

“The benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) begins this week right on top of minor underlying support at 2873 to 2863 while 3 of our Asbury 6 market internals have moved into negative (bearish) territory.  Moreover, anther two of our Asbury 6 appear to be just another weak session or two away from also turning negative. 

This means SPX must recover from 2873 to 2863 immediately, on improving market internals, or will slip into a corrective phase and a potential test of major support at 2802 to 2763, which is an additional 3% to 4% below the market.”

A little more than 2 weeks later, the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) has since collapsed by 234 points or 8.1.% and is now up just 1.2% for the year.

Is this the buying opportunity we’ve been waiting for, or just the beginning of a very bad 4th Quarter?

The good news is that SPX is currently testing underlying support at 2692, a level that we previously identified in our October 7th US Stock Market UpdateThese support levels are potential places for significant market bottoms to emerge. 

The bad news is that all of our Asbury 6 key market internals, per Table 1 one below, are in negative (bearish) territory.

Table 1

Our Asbury 6, which we update and make available daily in our research products, and are also a key component in our investment management decisions, measure the stock market’s internal strength in 6 different ways.

As long as all Asbury 6 remain in negative territory, it suggests a “risk off” environment where we focus on protecting investor assets rather than putting new money to work.


Asbury Investment Management (AIM): Our Latest Video

Click Here for our 10/24/2018 Video Review, which explains how we have used our latest research to professionally manage client portfolios.

For further information about Asbury Research Management, please email or call 1-844-4-ASBURY (1-844-427 2879).


The Put/Call Ratio: If The Market Can’t Rally Here, It’s In Trouble

At the end of last week we published our October Monthly Investment Compass (MIC, access requires subscription), which is a collection of key charts, data, and intermarket analysis that convey our best investment ideas for US and global stock markets, US market sectors and industry groups, individual stocks, and US interest rates and related assets for the next one to several quarters.  It includes an accompanying video in which Chief Market Strategist John Kosar discusses each chart’s implications for upcoming US financial market direction. 

One of the 40 charts and data series we displayed and discussed in that report was the CBOE Put/Call Ratio, which provides information about the relative trading volumes of equity put options versus call options.

CBOE Put/Call Ratio since January

The rightmost green highlights in the chart below show that the CBOE Put/Call Ratio has for the past week been hovering at a previous multi-year most bearish extreme, indicating a high ratio of put volume versus call volume.  The other green highlights show that, as a contrary indicator, similar extremes have closely coincided with every near term bottom in the S&P 500 this year.

This means that, unless the S&P 500 (SPX) recovers from major support near 2768 this week, the US broad market has probably changed it’s previous positive bias and is now in the early stages of a major bearish trend change — and headed significantly lower later on this quarter.

 

Asbury Research subscribers can view our latest research on the US stock market, market sectors, US interest rates, ETFs and commodities, as well as a table with our current picks in US stocks, ETFs, and global indexes, by logging into the Research Center via the big gold button in the upper right corner of the screen.

To non-subscribers:  Request more information about us, including service and pricing options, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.

For asset management, please visit the Asbury Investment Management (AIM) website.


Asbury Research’s Stock Market Update & Asbury Investment Management Video: October 12th , 2018

We are sending you this brief market update much sooner than our normal 2-week interval because we thought it might be timely and helpful considering this week’s violent collapse in the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX).  It includes a link to a video from Asbury Investment Management (AIM) which explains how we are utilizing Asbury Research investment ideas and strategies to professionally manage client portfolios during these volatile times. 

Click Here to request further information about our Research and Investment Management Services.

US Broad Market Testing 2016 Major Support

Asbury Research: US Stock Market Update, October 12th, 2018

In our previous October 7th Stock Market Update, we said:

“The chart below shows that last week’s pullback from the September 21st all-time highs has positioned SPX right on top of minor underlying support at 2873 to 2863If this support holds, it is likely to become the springboard for a rise to 3000 — our upside target for SPX since May.  If broken, however, it would clear the way for a deeper decline to the next key level at 2802 to 2763, which is major support.”

The 2873 to 2863 support area in the S&P 500 was broken early in the trading session on Wednesday, October 10th, and by the end of the session the broad market index had traded as low as 2772 to test the major support area we had identified.  Although we believed that a breakdown below SPX 2873-2963 would lead to a test of 2802-2763, I don’t think  anyone expected it to happen in one day.  We certainly didn’t.

The question now is, what next?

SPX 2802-2763 is major support, which means this is where the broad market index’s larger 2016 advance should resume — if still valid. Or, put another way, if the market can’t hold major support, it will slip into a major downtrend, which means an even deeper decline.

How can we tell if the major uptrend is still valid?

By studying market internals, which let us check the market’s health “under the hood”.  For that, we turn to what we call the Asbury 6, which are our six favorite market internals.  A chart of one of of the Asbury 6, ETF asset flows, appears below.  The pink highlights in the lower panel show that the total net assets invested in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) collapsed by $13.9 billion or 4.9% just since October 3rd.  This is a big exodus from the SPYder in a very short period of time, and means all of the assets added since September 5th  — — during the S&P 500’s most recent advance to new all-time highs — have liquidated, most of them at a loss.  Until these assets begin to stabilize and then expand, this week’s sharp market decline is likely to continue.

S&P 500 and Total Net Assets Invested In SPY


Asbury Investment Management (AIM): Our Latest Video

Click Here for our 10/11/2018 Video Review, which explains how we have used our latest research to professionally manage client portfolios.

For further information about Asbury Research Management, please email or call 1-844-4-ASBURY (1-844-427 2879).


Asbury Research’s Stock Market Update & Asbury Investment Management Video: October 7th , 2018

The following is a brief stock market overview from Asbury Research, and below it a link to a video from Asbury Investment Management (AIM) which explains how we are utilizing Asbury Research investment ideas and strategies to professionally manage client portfolios. 

Click Here to request further information about our Research and Investment Management Services.

US Market At A Key Inflection Point

Asbury Research: US Stock Market Update, October 7th, 2018

The benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) collapsed by more than 2.4% last week, high to low, but by the close on Friday lost just 0.97% for the week and is still up 7.9% for the year.  The sharp market decline was triggered by an equally sharp move higher in the yield of the 10-Year Treasury Note, above the critical 3.13% area which we have been alerting subscribers to since May — and most recently wrote about in an October 1st article for Forbes.  By anticipating the adverse stock market move this sharp rise in interest rates provoked, we were able to avoid much of last week’s decline in investment management clients’ portfolios.

The chart below shows that last week’s pullback from the September 21st all-time highs has positioned SPX right on top of minor underlying support at 2873 to 2863.  If this support holds, it is likely to become the springboard for a rise to 3000 — our upside target for SPX since May.  If broken, however, it would clear the way for a deeper decline to the next key level at 2802 to 2763, which is major support.   We will be closely tracking our key market internals over the next several days to anticipate what the market’s next move will be.

S&P 500 daily since January


Asbury Investment Management (AIM): Our Latest Video

Click Here for our 10/05/2018 Video Review, which explains how we have used our latest research to professionally manage client portfolios.

For further information about Asbury Research Management, please email or call 1-844-4-ASBURY (1-844-427 2879).


Positioning Portfolios For The 4th Quarter

Part of what our research does to help subscribers be properly positioned in the stock market is to fine-tune their core holdings, taking advantage of relative performance trends in the small, mid, and large cap segments of the market.  By modifying the core holdings within a portfolio to take advantage of these internal changes in relative performance, investors can potentially pick up some alpha in a more risk averse way — without changing the size of the core allocation.

Exactly 4 months ago, in our May 14th Keys To This Week report (access requires subscription) we pointed out an emerging breakout higher in the small cap Russell 2000 and said it targeted a rise to 1750.

Here is the chart from that report.

Russell 2000 daily: August 2017 to May 18th

The next chart, an updated version of the one above, shows that RUT traded as high as 1742 on an intraday basis on August 31st, essentially meeting our target,  and has since drifted lower.

Russell 2000 daily: August 2017 to September 14th

When a stock or an index gets this close to a price target and then stalls or reverses direction, we 1) assume that the directional implications of the breakout have been met and, as a result, 2) expect to see at least a minor decline as profit taking takes place.  Accordingly, this chart suggests this may not a particularly good time to to be adding exposure to the small cap space.

The next chart is a little more complicated, but simply shows that the Russell 2000 is also currently vulnerable to upcoming relative underperformance versus the overall market, between and year end.

Relative Performance of S&P 600 vs. S&P 1500 since 2015

It simply shows that the iShares S&P Small Cap 600 Index ETF (IJR,) is retracting from quarterly overbought extremes versus the the iShares S&P 1500 Index Fund ETF (ITOT), and that previous instances of this led every multi-month period of relative underperformance by Small Cap versus the overall market during this period (red vertical highlights).

This chart not only suggests that this is not a good time to chase the small cap space on an outright basis, but also that small cap is poised to underperform the overall market during the 4th Quarter. 

In a case like this, we are looking at similar charts and metrics to determine whether to shade core holdings in portfolios away from small cap, and toward either the mid cap or large cap space, as at least one of these three is always outperforming the overall market.  By selecting the right one(s) at the right time, and rotating them throughout the year as necessary, we can add some performance to portfolios without changing the actual size of the investment.

 

Asbury Research subscribers can view our latest research on the US stock market, market sectors, US interest rates, ETFs and commodities, as well as a table with our current picks in US stocks, ETFs, and global indexes, by logging into the Research Center via the big gold button in the upper right corner of the screen.

To non-subscribers:  Request more information about us, including service and pricing options, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.

For asset management, please visit the Asbury Investment Management (AIM) website.

 

 


Asbury Research’s Stock Market Update & Asbury Investment Management Video: September 5th, 2018

The following is a brief stock market overview from Asbury Research, and below it a link to a video from Asbury Investment Management (AIM) which explains how we are utilizing Asbury Research investment ideas and strategies to professionally manage client portfolios.  Questions, comments welcome. Click Here to contact us.

Asbury Research: US Stock Market Update, September 5, 2018

Perhaps the most important market event since our previous update two weeks ago is the new all-time high in the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX), which exceeded the previous January high of 2873.  After setting a new all-time high of 2017 last week, SPX has since backed up to retest the 2873 area today — this time as underlying support.  This is where the 2018 advance should resume if it’s still healthy, and the fact that 5 of our “Asbury 6” key market internals (monthly price momentum, relative performance of stocks versus junk bonds, ETF asset flows, market breadth, corporate bond spreads, and volume) are currently in positive territory suggest that it is.  Should more broad market strength indeed emerge from the SPX 2873 area, we would expect some new market leadership to come from the semiconductor and biotech space.

The caveat to these positive technical/quantitative market conditions is a compelling list of potential market headwinds including:

  • we are currently in the 10th year of an advance that began in March 2009,
  • September is by far the seasonally weakest month of the year in the S&P 500 (see chart below),
  • the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates,
  • 44 of the 51 global stock indexes that we track (83%) are in major downtrends based on their 200-day moving averages, and many of these are positively correlated to the US market,
  • and a growing list of geopolitical concerns right in front of November mid term elections in the US.

So, although our current market bias is positive (bullish), we are a little more cautious than usual right now and will be aggressively protecting capital on any meaningful changes to either 1) the trend in the major US indexes or 2) market internals as mentioned above.

Consistent updates on the current condition of the market, including our Asbury 6 market internals, plus access to our Correction Protection Model (CPM) are all available with an Asbury Research subscription.  Contact  Us for sample reports and pricing.


Asbury Investment Management (AIM): Our Latest Video

Click Here for our 09/05/2018 Video Review, which explains how we have used our latest research to professionally manage client portfolios.

For further information about Asbury Research Management, please email
or call
1-844-4-ASBURY (1-844-427 2879).


Our Upside Target Met In SPDR Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY)

The chart below shows that the SPDR Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) met our May 21st 116.00 upside target, as shown in our Keys To This Week report for Market Sectors and Industry Groups, on August 28th to capture a 10.55 point, 10% rise in just over 3 months.

XLY also outperformed the S&P 500 (SPX) by 3.5% during the same period.

Here is the chart.

XLY daily from 10-1-2017 to 08-28-2018

 

We publish these notifications for 3 reasons:

  1. to let Asbury Research subscribers know when to consider taking profits on existing positions,
  2. to let non-subscribers track what we are doing in the market, in real time, and
  3. to make everyone aware of a potential upcoming price reversal as price advances often end as upside targets are met and more savvy investors take profits.

 

Asbury Research subscribers can view our latest research on the US stock market, market sectors, US interest rates, ETFs and commodities, as well as a table with our current picks in US stocks, ETFs, and global indexes, by logging into the Research Center via the big gold button in the upper right corner of the screen.

Subscribers and interested investors can view our 2017 closed out trade ideas by Clicking Here.

To non-subscribers:  Request more information about us, including service and pricing options, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.


Our Upside Target Met In Copart (CPRT)

The chart below shows that the Copart Inc. (CPRT) met our $64.20 per share upside target this morning, August 28th, by trading as high as $64.30 intraday. 

Our price target on this Asbury Momentum idea was first displayed and discussed in our August 9th Asbury Alert (access requires subscription) to capture a $4.69 per share, 8% price advance in less than 3 weeks.

CPRT also outperformed the S&P 500 (SPX) by 5% during the same period.

Here is the chart from our August 9th report.

CPRT daily: January 2018 through August 9th

Here is this morning’s (August 28th) updated chart.

CPRT daily: January 2018 to August 28th

 

We publish these notifications for 3 reasons:

  1. to let Asbury Research subscribers know when to consider taking profits on existing positions,
  2. to let non-subscribers track what we are doing in the market, in real time, and
  3. to make everyone aware of a potential upcoming price reversal as price advances often end as upside targets are met and more savvy investors take profits.

 

Asbury Research subscribers can view our latest research on the US stock market, market sectors, US interest rates, ETFs and commodities, as well as a table with our current picks in US stocks, ETFs, and global indexes, by logging into the Research Center via the big gold button in the upper right corner of the screen.

Subscribers and interested investors can view our 2017 closed out trade ideas by Clicking Here.

To non-subscribers:  Request more information about us, including service and pricing options, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.


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