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Asbury Research’s Stock Market Update & Asbury Investment Management Video: October 29th, 2019

US Stock Market: 2019 Advance Resuming Amid Strengthening Market Internals

Asbury Research’s Stock Market Update & Asbury Investment Management Video is a free report that we use to keep in contact with existing clients, and those who have previously asked for information about either Asbury Research or Asbury Investment Management (AIM).  Feel free to contact us anytime for further information about our services for professional and private investors.

In our previous October 16th Stock Market Update & Asbury Investment Management Video, we pointed out that US broad market’s 5-month period of sideways investor indecision from the May 1st high was still in effect, but to watch the upside as the larger 2019 advance appeared to be resuming.

And resume it did, as the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) is now 58 points or 2% higher than it was on October 16th, trading at new all-time highs amid positive market internals as indicated by our Correction Protection Model (CPM) and Asbury 6 risk models.  As long as these models remain Positive, the rally is likely to continue.

We recently added some new data-driven tables and metrics to Asbury Research.  That information is already being integrated into managed client portfolios via AIM.  One of these, our S&P 500 vs. The World Table below, measures the relative performance of the S&P 500 versus a comprehensive list of 24 global equity indexes for the purpose of identifying the latest trends of relative performance by non-US markets.

The table shows that 16 of the 24 foreign markets we track are currently outperforming the S&P 500 on a Tactical and Strategic basis.  This as an indication that global equity markets are starting to recover from 2018 weakness — which we view as being overall positive for the US market.


Asbury Investment Management (AIM): Our Latest Video
Asbury Research Ideas, Expertly Managed

Click Here for our 10/29/2019 Video Review, which explains how we have recently utilized Asbury Research’s market analysis and investment ideas to professionally manage client portfolios.

AIM offers a unique approach to investment management that is data driven, dynamic, and solely based on the current technical condition and quantitative risk/reward profile of the financial markets.

If you would like to learn more about Asbury Research, Click Here to contact us and type “subscription info” in the Reason For Inquiry text box or call 888-960-0005.

If you would like to learn more about Asbury Investment Management  (AIM), please email or call 1-844-4-ASBURY (1-844-427-2879).


This communication is for informational purposes only. It is not intended as investment advice, or as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial asset.  No inferences may be made and no guarantees of profitability are being stated by Asbury Research LLC.  The risk of loss trading in financial assets can be substantial. Therefore, you should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.


Asbury Research’s Stock Market Update & Asbury Investment Management Video: October 16th, 2019

US Stock Market: The 5-Month Indecision Area Continues, But Watch The Upside

Chart 1 below shows that, after a successful October 3rd test of major underlying support at the 200-day moving average (widely-watched major trend proxy), the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) has jumped back above minor overhead resistance at 2941 to 2954.  This indicates the 2019 major uptrend is still intact and suggests it may be resuming.

Chart 1

In this case, though, understanding the bigger picture is much more important. SPX initially jumped 18% higher from January 2nd through May 1st, indicating frantic buying pressure following a 20% collapse in Q4 2018.  However, the index has since drifted sideways, indicating investor concern that the market had come to far, too fast —  and in the process chopping many investors to pieces.

The bad news is these sideways, choppy markets are extremely difficult to navigate.  Just as market internals start to improve, prices peak near the top of the recent range and collapse back down to the bottom of the range.  This happens because investors are indecisive and unwilling to make market bets that move outside of the sideways “safety zone”.

The good news is that these sideways indecision areas typically become the springboard for the next “investable” and lucrative market move.  Moreover, the longer these indecision periods last, the bigger the trend that comes out of them tends to be.

Table 1 below displays the October 15th update of our Asbury 6 key market internals.  We update the Asbury 6 every day to determine the tactical risk profile of the market.  The table shows that 4 of the Asbury 6 turned back to positive as of of October 15th,  after being mostly negative as of October 1st — the latter which was right before the most recent market decline began.

Table 1

This suggests a cautiously positive near term bias for the stock market.  Bigger picture, however, the market  is still in a sideways price trend.  It would take a sustained positive bias in the Asbury 6, along with a move outside of the current 5-month trading range, to suggest a clear resumption of the 2019 advance. Be careful.

 

Editor’s Note: On Thursday October 17th, Chief Market Strategist John Kosar will be presenting Asbury Research’s latest market forecast and investment strategy to the Twin Cities Minnesota Chapter of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).  Contact us or visit the AAII’s website for details.


Asbury Investment Management (AIM): Our Latest Video
Asbury Research Ideas, Expertly Managed

Click Here for our 10/16/2019 Video Review, which explains how we have recently utilized Asbury Research’s market analysis and investment ideas to professionally manage client portfolios.

AIM offers a unique approach to investment management that is dynamic, based on the current condition and risk/reward profile of the financial markets.

If you would like to learn more about Asbury Research, Click Here to contact us and type “subscription info” in the Reason For Inquiry text box or call 888-960-0005.

If you would like to learn more about Asbury Investment Management  (AIM), please email or call 1-844-4-ASBURY (1-844-427-2879).


This communication is for informational purposes only. It is not intended as investment advice, or as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial asset.  No inferences may be made and no guarantees of profitability are being stated by Asbury Research LLC.  The risk of loss trading in financial assets can be substantial. Therefore, you should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.


Asbury Research’s Stock Market Update & Asbury Investment Management Video: October 3rd, 2019

US Stock Market: Beginning A Corrective Decline

In our previous September 19th update, we pointed out that the S&P 500 (SPX) was situated in a trading range, above primary support at 2950 but below its 3028 July 26th all-time high.  We said:

“We are closely watching our CPM (Correction Protection Model) and Asbury 6 key market internals, as well as other market metrics we track, as a coincident if not leading indication of whether the US stock market finishes 2019 in a strong way, at new all-time highs, or begins a long-overdue corrective decline.”

Chart 1 below, a newly-updated daily chart of SPX, shows that the broad market index actually peaked on September 19th, failing to take out its 3028 high, and subsequently fell back into primary support at 2954 to 2941, testing it for the next 5 trading sessions.

Chart 1

Then, as of the close on October 1st, our Correction Protection Model switched to a Risk Off status while 5 of the Asbury 6 (see Table 1 below) turned Negative — both indicating market internals were weakening.  SPX opened 17.00 points lower the next day, October 2nd, and proceeded to collapse by 84.00 point or 3% into today’s 2856 low.

Table 1

SPX is trying to recover today, after getting within 1% of major underlying support at 2822 to 2800 as shown in Chart 1 above, but the current corrective decline will remain intact below former support at 2941 to 2954 which now becomes primary overhead resistance.


Editor’s Note: On Thursday October 17th, Chief Market Strategist John Kosar will be presenting Asbury Research’s latest market forecast and investment strategy to the Twin Cities Minnesota Chapter of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).  Contact us or visit the AAII’s website for details.

 


Asbury Investment Management (AIM): Our Latest Video
Asbury Research Ideas, Expertly Managed

Click Here for our 10/02/2019 Video Review, which explains how we have recently utilized Asbury Research’s market analysis and investment ideas to professionally manage client portfolios.

AIM offers a unique approach to investment management that is dynamic, based on the current condition and risk/reward profile of the financial markets.

If you would like to learn more about Asbury Research, Click Here to contact us and type “subscription info” in the Reason For Inquiry text box or call 888-960-0005.

If you would like to learn more about Asbury Investment Management  (AIM), please email or call 1-844-4-ASBURY (1-844-427-2879).


This communication is for informational purposes only. It is not intended as investment advice, or as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial asset.  No inferences may be made and no guarantees of profitability are being stated by Asbury Research LLC.  The risk of loss trading in financial assets can be substantial. Therefore, you should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.


Asbury Research’s Stock Market Update & Asbury Investment Management Video: September 19th, 2019

US Stock Market: 2019 Advance Resumes Amid Positive Market Internals

In our previous September 5th update, we pointed out that our Correction Protection Model (CPM) turned back to a Risk On status on August 22nd and that, about a week later on August 29th, our Asbury 6 (A6) key market internals (see Table 1 below) turned back to a Positive bias.  The benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) has risen by 87.00 points or 3.0% since August 22nd, and by 85.00 points or 2.9% since August 29th.

Table 1

Chart 1 below shows that SPX is currently situated just above minor support at 2950, but just below its 3028 July 26th all-time high.  The index’s major trend remains up (bullish) above 2817 to 2800.

Chart 1

We are closely watching our CPM and A6 models, as well as other market metrics we track, as a coincident if not leading indication of whether the US stock market finishes 2019 in a strong way, at new all-time highs, or begins a long-overdue corrective decline as it is in the 10th year of a bull market that historically only lasts about half that long.


Editor’s Note: On September 14th John Kosar, our Chief Market Strategist, presented some of our latest research to the Los Angeles Chapter of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).  You can view the slide deck from that presentation by clicking the title below.

How To Navigate A 10-Year Old Bull Market Amid Elevated Geopolitical Risk

Prepared for The AAII Los Angeles Chapter


Asbury Investment Management (AIM): Our Latest Video
Asbury Research Ideas, Expertly Managed

Click Here for our 09/18/2019 Video Review, which explains how we have recently utilized Asbury Research’s market analysis and investment ideas to professionally manage client portfolios.

AIM offers a unique approach to investment management that is dynamic, based on the current condition and risk/reward profile of the financial markets.

If you would like to learn more about Asbury Research, Click Here to contact us and type “subscription info” in the Reason For Inquiry text box or call 888-960-0005.

If you would like to learn more about Asbury Investment Management  (AIM), please email or call 1-844-4-ASBURY (1-844-427-2879).


This communication is for informational purposes only. It is not intended as investment advice, or as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial asset.  No inferences may be made and no guarantees of profitability are being stated by Asbury Research LLC.  The risk of loss trading in financial assets can be substantial. Therefore, you should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.


Asbury Research’s Stock Market Update & Asbury Investment Management Video: September 5th, 2019

US Stock Market Resuming 2019 Advance On Improving Market Internals

In our previous August 21st update, we pointed out that the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) had recently tested and held major underlying support at 2817 to 2800, on August 5th and 15th, and said the 2019 major uptrend in the US broad market remained up (bullish) above this support.  We also pointed out that minor overhead resistance existed just above the market at 2941 to 2954, and said the minor trend in SPX remained down (bearish) below this resistance.

Since then, our Correction Protection Model (CPM) turned back to a Risk On status a day later, on August 22nd.  About a week after that, on August 29th, 5 of our Asbury 6 key market internals turned back to Positive (bullish) per our table below.  When all Asbury 6 are positive, market internals are the most conducive to adding risk to portfolios.

The chart below, updated through this morning, shows that SPX gapped above minor resistance at 2941 to 2954 this morning, confirming with price action the improving market internals that our CPM and Asbury 6 were indicating in late August.

S&P 500 daily since May 2018

This clears the way for an upcoming retest of the July 26th all-time high of 3028, as long as the 2950 area now contains the US broad market index as underlying support.

The video below shows how we have used Asbury Research’s recent analysis and strategy to manage investor assets, in real time, for our Asbury Research Management clients.


Asbury Investment Management (AIM): Our Latest Video
Asbury Research Ideas, Expertly Managed

Click Here for our 09/04/2019 Video Review,
which explains how we have recently utilized Asbury Research’s market analysis and investment ideas to professionally manage client portfolios.

AIM offers a unique approach to investment management that is dynamic, based on the current condition and risk/reward profile of the financial markets, rather than on whatever your investment allocation may have been pre-determined to be.

These free bi-weekly reports are published to stay in touch with those who have expressed an interest in our approach to investing.

If you are interested in becoming an Asbury Research subscriber, Click Here to contact us and type “subscription info” in the Reason For Inquiry text box.

If you are interested in becoming an Asbury Investment Management  (AIM) client, please email or call 1-844-4-ASBURY (1-844-427-2879) for further information about individual managed accounts.


This communication is for informational purposes only. It is not intended as investment advice, or as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial asset.  No inferences may be made and no guarantees of profitability are being stated by Asbury Research LLC.  The risk of loss trading in financial assets can be substantial. Therefore, you should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.


John Kosar’s August 29th, 2019 Interview: Financial Sense

Jim Puplava of the popular Financial Sense website welcomes back John Kosar CMT, Chief Investment Strategist at Asbury Research LLC.

In his latest interview by Financial Sense, which took place on Friday July 19th, John discussed Asbury Research’s outlook for the US financial landscape, as well as specific areas of the economy including:

  • the US stock market,
  • US market sectors and industry groups,
  • global equities including emerging markets,
  • US interest rates,
  • key commodities like copper, steel, and gold,
  • Asbury’s Correction Protection Model (CPM), and
  • our Asbury 6 key internal market metrics.

Click Here to listen to the interview.


Asbury Research subscribers can view our current research on the US and global financial landscape, and our  current stock and ETF picks, by logging into the Research Center via the big gold button in the upper right corner of the screen.

Interested investors can request more information about us, including sample research, services and pricing, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.

Click Here to request information about Asbury Investment Management (AIM).

Thanks to Jim Puplava and his staff for the invitation and another opportunity to speak to his large and loyal following of professional and individual investors.


Asbury Research’s Stock Market Update & Asbury Investment Management Video: August 21st, 2019

US Stock Market At A Major Decision Point

In our previous August 7th update, we pointed out that our Asbury 6 key market internals had just turned Negative as of the market close on Thursday, August 1st.  Our Correction Protection Model (CPM) shifted to a corroborating “Risk Off” status a day later, as of the open on Friday August 2nd, further warning of upcoming market weakness.

Since then, the green highlights in Chart 1 below show that the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) twice tested and held major underlying support at 2817 to 2800, on August 5th and 15th.  The current 2019 major uptrend in the US broad market remains up (bullish) above this support.

Chart 1

The red highlights show that minor overhead resistance exists just above the market at 2941 to 2954.  The minor trend in SPX remains down (bearish) below this resistance. 

SPX’s current position between these key levels indicates the US broad market is  in the midst of a minor corrective decline within a major advance.

Meanwhile, Table 1 below shows that, through August 20th, 5 of our Asbury 6 key near term market metrics remain in Negative territory, keeping its August 1st near term bearish bias for US equities intact.

Table 1

It would currently take a sustained rise above 2941 to 2954, on a positive shift in our Asbury 6 and Correction Protection Model, to indicate the current corrective phase is over and the larger 2019 advance is resuming. 

Conversely, a failure to rise back above 2941 to 2054 and a subsequent decline below 2817 to 2800 would indicate an emerging major bearish trend change and clear the way for significantly lower US equity prices.

The video below shows how we have used Asbury Research’s recent analysis and strategy to manage investor assets, in real time, for our Asbury Research Management clients.


Asbury Investment Management (AIM): Our Latest Video
Asbury Research Ideas, Expertly Managed

Click Here for our 08/20/2019 Video Review,
which explains how we have recently utilized Asbury Research’s market analysis and investment ideas to professionally manage client portfolios.

AIM offers a unique approach to investment management that is dynamic, based on the current condition and risk/reward profile of the financial markets, rather than on whatever your investment allocation may have been pre-determined to be.

These free bi-weekly reports are published to stay in touch with those who have expressed an interest in our approach to investing.

If you are interested in becoming an Asbury Research subscriber, Click Here to contact us and type “subscription info” in the Reason For Inquiry text box.

If you are interested in becoming an Asbury Investment Management  (AIM) client, please email or call 1-844-4-ASBURY (1-844-427-2879) for further information about individual managed accounts.


This communication is for informational purposes only. It is not intended as investment advice, or as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial asset.  No inferences may be made and no guarantees of profitability are being stated by Asbury Research LLC.  The risk of loss trading in financial assets can be substantial. Therefore, you should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.


Asbury Research’s Stock Market Update & Asbury Investment Management Video: August 7th, 2019

Risk Off Status As Of August 2nd, Watching Market Reaction To Major Support

In our previous July 24th update, we pointed out that the tech bellwether NASDAQ Composite Index (COMP) had spent the previous 11 sessions trading completely above its 8133 August 2018 high — after failing a previous attempt to do so back in late October.  We identified this as an emerging major bullish breakout by this market-leading index.

However, we also warned investors that the US stock market was in the 10th year of a major bull market in US stocks that typically only lasts 4 1/2 years, and that August and September were  two of the three seasonally weakest months of the year based on data since 1957.  Amid these conditions, we said we were:

“…monitoring the market very closely, with a focus on protecting subscribers and investor assets against an overdue — and potentially nasty — decline.”

Table 1 below shows that — just 8 sessions later  –– our Asbury 6 key market internals turned Negative as of the market close on Thursday, August 1st.  This indicated the “under the hood” condition of the market had turned bearish, and that market internals were the least conducive to adding risk to portfolios.  Previously, at least 4 of the 6 had been positive since June 7th.

Table 1

In addition, our Correction Protection Model (CPM) shifted to a corroborating “Risk Off” status as of the open on Friday, August 2nd, warning of further market weakness.  The benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) subsequently collapsed by 124 points or 4.2% over the next 2 sessions, and is now trying stabilize from major underlying support near 2800.

How the US broad market reacts to this support level, which we will gauge by the day-to-day condition of our Asbury 6, will determine whether this week’s sharp market decline is a new buying opportunity or just the beginning of a much deeper correction.

The video below shows how we have used Asbury Research’s recent analysis and strategy to manage investor assets, in real time, for our Asbury Research Management clients.


Asbury Investment Management (AIM): Our Latest Video
Asbury Research Ideas, Expertly Managed

Click Here for our 08/07/2019 Video Review,
which explains how we have recently utilized Asbury Research’s market analysis and investment ideas to professionally manage client portfolios.

AIM offers a unique approach to investment management that is dynamic, based on the current condition and risk/reward profile of the financial markets, rather than on whatever your investment allocation may have been pre-determined to be.

If you like our approach to investing, please email or call 1-844-4-ASBURY (1-844-427-2879) for further information about individual managed accounts.

This communication is for informational purposes only. It is not intended as investment advice, or as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial asset.  No inferences may be made and no guarantees of profitability are being stated by Asbury Research LLC.  The risk of loss trading in financial assets can be substantial. Therefore, you should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.


Asbury’s Correction Protection Model (CPM): Risk Off Status As Of Last Week

Asbury Research’s Correction Protection Model (CPM) moved to a “Risk Off”, defensive status as of the open on August 2nd, from a Risk On status since June 11th.

The chart below displays CPM’s signals thus far in 2019.

CPM is a defensive model with the primary objective of protecting investor assets during adverse market conditions, but otherwise remaining invested to take advantage of the market’s historical propensity to move higher over time.

CPM’s Purpose & Key Features

  • Protects investors against significant market declines
  • without sacrificing long term performance, under a variety of market conditions,
  • all while greatly reducing market risk as measured by actual time invested and by volatility of returns.

More About CPM

  • CPM is binary.  It is either Risk On (invested in the market) or Risk Off (out of the market).  There are no short positions, leveraged longs, or hedging via derivatives.
  • CPM is not a returns-driven model. It was designed to protect investor assets during adverse market conditions while taking advantage of the market’s historical propensity to move higher over time.
  • CPM utilizes 3 quantitative inputs.
  • CPM uses the S&P 500 as a proxy for the market.

Back-Tested Performance Highlights

Since 2011:

  • CPM has averaged 5.6 round turn signals per year.
  • CPM has only been in the market 64% of the time, significantly reducing risk.
  • Table 1 below shows that CPM has outperformed the S&P 500 4 of the past 8 years.

    Table 2 below shows CPM’s maximum drawdown (over a rolling 90-day period) has been 9.5% versus 17.9% for the S&P 500, which is 47% less.

  • Table 2 also shows CPM’s implied volatility has been 4.45% versus 5.91% for the S&P 500, which means CPM has been 25% less risky.

  • The chart below plots the daily performance in index points for both CPM and SPX from January 2011 through May 2019, showing that CPM has outperformed SPX by 273 index points or 9.9% during this period.

Chart 1

Click on tables and charts above to enlarge

The Bottom Line

Since 2011, CPM has:

  • outperformed the S&P 500 (SPX),
  • reduced the time invested in the market by 36%,
  • reduced the maximum drawdown in SPX by 47%, and
  • reduced the volatility of market returns (implied volatility) by 25%.

Simply stated, CPM provides Asbury Research subscribers with a methodology to participate in US stock market advances while significantly reducing market exposure and market risk during stock market declines.

Disclaimer

All investment models have inherent limitations in that they look back over previous data but can’t see into the future.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  These limitations aside, however, our model argues against the buy and hold “strategy”, and the assertion by its proponents that “you can’t time the market” or “you can’t beat the market”.  Attempting to get out of the way of an emerging market decline comes with the inherent risk of potentially missing out on some performance — especially considering the current “buy the dip” mentality engendered by a decade of accommodative central bank policy.  However, our model’s performance since 2011 is a testament to intelligent quantitative risk management, showing that a conservative, systematic, and repeatable process of active management can, over time, significantly outperform passive buy and hold.

This is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be a solicitation to buy or sell securities.  The performance indicated from back-testing or historical track record may not be typical of future performance. No inferences may be made and no guarantees of profitability are being stated by Asbury Research LLC.  The risk of loss trading in financial assets can be substantial. Therefore, you should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.


Asbury Research’s Stock Market Update & Asbury Investment Management Video: July 24th, 2019

Technology Keeping The 2019 Advance Intact – For Now

In our previous July 9th update we pointed out that, despite the US stock market’s recent strength, we still had some concerns about market leadership.  Specifically, since Small Cap, as represented by the Russell 2000 (RUT), had been drifting sideways since the end of February while underperforming the S&P 500 (SPX), that left Technology to take on the leadership role.

Chart 1 below shows that this is precisely what has taken place since then as the tech bellwether NASDAQ Composite Index (COMP) has spent the past 11 sessions completely above its 8133 August 2018 high — after failing a previous attempt to do so back in late October.

Chart 1

We view this as an emerging major bullish breakout by this market-leading index, one that will remain intact as long as the 8133 area now loosely contains the index as underlying support.

The other key factor we are tracking daily, as the COMP edges above 8133, is market internalsTable 1 below shows that, through July 23rd, all of our Asbury 6 key market internals are positive (bullish). 

Table 1

When all Asbury 6 are positive, market internals are the most conducive to adding risk to portfolios. At least 4 of the 6 have been positive since June 7th.

However, this by no means suggests the market is on cruise control, as safe as can be, and now all we have to do is show up in December to collect our 2019 profits.  The truth is that we are now in the 10th year of a major bull market in US stocks that typically only lasts 4 1/2 years, and August and September are two of the three weakest months of the year based on data since 1957.  Therefore, we continue to monitor the market very closely, with a focus on protecting subscribers and investor assets against an overdue — and potentially nasty — decline.

The video below shows how we have used Asbury Research’s analysis and strategy to manage investor assets, in real time, for our Asbury Research Management clients.


Asbury Investment Management (AIM): Our Latest Video
Asbury Research Ideas, Expertly Managed

Click Here for our 07/24/2019 Video Review,
which explains how we have recently utilized Asbury Research’s market analysis and investment ideas to professionally manage client portfolios.

AIM offers a unique approach to investment management that is dynamic, based on the current condition and risk/reward profile of the financial markets, rather than on whatever your investment allocation may have been pre-determined to be.

If you like our approach to investing, please email or call 1-844-4-ASBURY (1-844-427-2879) for further information about individual managed accounts.

This communication is for informational purposes only. It is not intended as investment advice, or as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial asset.  No inferences may be made and no guarantees of profitability are being stated by Asbury Research LLC.  The risk of loss trading in financial assets can be substantial. Therefore, you should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.


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