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Here we periodically publish a chart and a brief excerpt from one of our premium research reports, a link or a video from one of our appearances in the financial media, or a notification that one of our price targets has been met, for the purpose of familiarizing potential subscriber with our investment research and to stay on the radar of those who have expressed an interest in us.

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Asbury Research’s Stock Market Update & Asbury Investment Management Video: July 17th, 2018

The following is a brief stock market overview from Asbury Research, and below it a link to a video from Asbury Investment Management (AIM) which explains how we recently utilized Asbury Research investment ideas and strategies to professionally manage client portfolios.  Questions, comments welcome. Click Here to contact us.

Asbury Research: US Stock Market Update, July 17th, 2018

A cursory look at the US stock market shows it to be in pretty good shape.  The benchmark S&P 500‘s major and minor trends are up while 5 of our “Asbury 6” key market internal metrics are positive (bullish).  A closer look, however, reveals that there are also some significant risks to be aware of.

Two of those risks can be seen in global markets and in market-leading semiconductors.  Regarding the former, three major overseas global stock markets — all which are positively correlated to the S&P 500 — have recently slipped into major downtrends.  Regarding the latter, the PHLX Semiconductor (SOX, see chart below) Index has made six failed attempts since November 2017 to rise and remain above 1362, which is the March 2000 top-of-the-tech-bubble high.

We are paying special attention to these two factors, plus others  — while also closely watching some key index levels here in the U.S. — for further evidence that the market may be moving into a “risk off” environment.

SOX Index daily: 1-year chart

More charts, and much more detailed and specific coverage of individual stocks, ETFs, and US interest rates, plus access to our Correction Protection Model (CPM) are available with an Asbury Research subscription.  Contact  Us for sample reports and pricing.


Asbury Investment Management (AIM): Our Latest Video

Click Here for our 07/16/2018 Video Review, which explains how we used our latest research to better manage client portfolios.

For further information about Asbury Research Management, please email or call 1-844-4-ASBURY (1-844-427 2879).


New Asbury Value Model Now Available

A June 11th email to subscribers announced that we were working on a new stock and ETF picking model that was based on buying weakness, rather than buying strength as our existing model has been doing since late 2016.  We call the new model Asbury Value.

We actually began developing this new model back in March, after the S&P 500 had been drifting sideways since late January.  At that time our current model, which identifies momentum breakouts and which had performed very well since we began publishing the signals in September 2016, stopped performing nearly as well.  This was because the model was trying to capitalize on momentum breakouts in individual stocks, but within a broad market environment where there was no positive momentum.

Our new Value model, which we have now been tracking in real time since May 1st, has 33 closed out trade ideas thus far and is doing what it was designed to do — actually taking advantage of the current non-trending, choppy market environment to buy good stocks that have had a substantial correction.

click on table to enlarge

Of 34 closed Value trades since May 1st:

  • 59% have been profitable
  • initial risk per idea: 4.8%
  • average winning idea: +9.0%
  • average losing idea: -4.8% (Note: excluding NKTR, which atypically gapped 31% lower to stop us out on June 4, the average losing idea is just -3.5%.)
  • 3.3% average profit per trade
  • 21% of these ideas have produced better than an 11% gain

Especially within the current non-trending broad market environment, where the S&P 500 is up just 1% for the year, we are pleased with this performance so far.  More important, we believe Asbury Value will make an effective “partner” for our current momentum signal (Asbury Momentum) which, as the table below shows, has performed very well during the trending environment from inception through 2017.

click on table to enlarge

Effective immediately, all new Asbury Value ideas will be published in our trade ideas table in the Research Center, under the heading “Type” as Value.  All ideas from our existing signal will be listed under the heading Momentum.

Questions welcome.


John Kosar’s June 28th, 2018 Interview: Financial Sense

Jim Puplava of the popular Financial Sense website welcomes back John Kosar CMT, Chief Investment Strategist at Asbury Research LLC.

In his latest interview by Financial Sense, which took place on Thursday June 28th, John discussed Asbury Research’s outlook for the US financial landscape, as well as specific areas of the economy including:

  • the US stock market, market sectors, and industry groups,
  • US interest rates,
  • key commodities like crude oil and gold, and
  • Asbury’s Correction Protection Model (CPM).

Click Here to listen to the interview.

 

Asbury Research subscribers can view our current research on the US and global financial landscape, and our  current stock and ETF picks, by logging into the Research Center via the big gold button in the upper right corner of the screen.

Interested investors can request more information about us, including sample research, services and pricing, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.

New!  Click Here to request information about Asbury Investment Management (AIM)

Thanks to Jim Puplava and his staff for the invitation and another opportunity to speak to his large and loyal following of professional and individual investors.


Asbury Research’s Stock Market Update & Asbury Investment Management Video

The following is a brief stock market overview from Asbury Research, and below it a link to a video from Asbury Investment Management (AIM) which explains how we utilized Asbury Research investment ideas and strategies to professionally manage client portfolios.  Questions, comments welcome. Click Here to contact us.

Asbury Research: US Stock Market Update, June 29th 2018

The US stock market’s larger 2016 major uptrend is still intact.  However, there was a failed attempt to re-engage that uptrend in mid-March, and there could be another failed attempt brewing now due to technical breakdowns in positively correlated French and Chinese stock indices, and recent weakness here in the states in the Dow Transports (DJTA) and NYSE Composite (NYSE).

Meanwhile, many of our key near term market internals have turned negative including contracting investor asset flows, widening corporate bond spreads, and recent relative underperformance by US equity prices versus junk bond prices.  These factors have at least temporarily put us in a defensive mode in which we are significantly limiting our investment in individual stocks and instead focusing on index ETFs, the latter where we can better control our risk due to lessened volatility.

When price action and market internals indicate the potential for upcoming market weakness, as they do now, it is particularly important to know where the key levels are in major benchmark indexes so investors can distinguish opportunity from risk.  The chart below plots the current key levels in the S&P 500, both above and below the market.  A sustained decline below major support at the 200-day MA, currently at 2668, would corroborate the internal weakness we have been seeing over the past week and would warn of a deeper decline.

S&P 500 daily since Q4 2017

More charts, and much more detailed and specific coverage of individual stocks, ETFs, and US interest rates, plus access to our Correction Protection Model (CPM) are available with an Asbury Research subscription.  Contact  Us for sample reports and pricing.


Asbury Investment Management (AIM): Our Latest Video

Click Here for our 06/29/2018 Video Review, which explains how we used our latest research to better manage client portfolios.

For further information about Asbury Research Management,
please email or call 1-844-4-ASBURY (1-844-427 2879).


Upside Target Met In SPDR Health Care Services ETF (XHS)

The chart below shows that the SPDR Health Care Services ETF (XHS) essentially met our 73.00 per share upside target yesterday, June 21st, by trading as high as $72.77 intraday. 

This price target was first displayed and discussed in our April 30th Keys To This Week report (access requires subscription) to capture a $7.64 per share, 12% price advance in a little less than 2 months.

XHS also outperformed the S&P 500 (SPX) by 7% during the same period.

Here is the chart from our April 30th report.

XHS: November 2017 to April 27th

Here is the updated chart through the close yesterday (June 21st).

XHS: November 2017 to April 27th

 

We publish these notifications for 3 reasons:

  1. to let Asbury Research subscribers know when to consider taking profits on existing positions,
  2. to let non-subscribers track what we are doing in the market, in real time, and
  3. to make everyone aware of a potential upcoming price reversal as price advances often end as upside targets are met and more savvy investors take profits.

 

Asbury Research subscribers can view our latest research on the US stock market, market sectors, US interest rates, ETFs and commodities, as well as a table with our current picks in US stocks, ETFs, and global indexes, by logging into the Research Center via the big gold button in the upper right corner of the screen.

Subscribers and interested investors can view our most recent closed out trade ideas by Clicking Here.

To non-subscribers:  Request more information about us, including service and pricing options, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.


US Stocks Just Passed An Important Test. Here’s The Next Hurdle To Watch.

The following is an excerpt from our May 29th Keys To This Week report on the US stock market (access requires subscription).  These reports, sent to subscribers on Monday mornings, list the 10 key market metrics to watch for that particular week, what they are saying about upcoming market direction, and the investment opportunities — or dangers to your portfolio — they suggest.


Keys To This Week, May 29th 2018:
The US Stock Market

Conclusion, Investment Implications, Strategy

First and foremost, the benchmark S&P 500’s (SPX) minor and major trends remain positive (bullish) heading into this week amid indications that the market’s larger 2016 advance is resuming

Our current cautiously positive overall market bias will remain intact this week above minor underlying support near SPX 2675.  However, it would take a sustained rise above SPX 2743, amid narrowing corporate bond spreads and improving volume, to help confirm the market is making a sustainable resumption of its larger 2016 advance.

continued>>>


Here is the chart that accompanied that analysis/observation, one of nine that were included in the entire report.

May 29th Keys To This Week: Chart 4 of 9

In this case, we identified a potential buy area in the S&P 500 at 2675 (actually at 2678 to 2674, per the chart), a place where the market needed to hold to maintain a bullish bias or risk going into a  much deeper decline.  SPX traded as low as 2677 that day right before rising by 4.3% over the next 10 trading sessions.

The market has been extremely volatile this year, with no real direction, and the flow of news and data can be overwhelming.  What should you be paying attention to?

We add unique value by letting subscribers know when to be paying attention — and to whatright when the market is at important inflection points where professional traders have to make tactical decisions in their portfolios.  Identifying these turning points, ahead of time, allows investors to manage their risk better — specifically, putting new money to work, or mitigating risk, at the right spots.

Looking ahead, the next key level to watch above the market is 2800 in the S&P 500.  We will be carefully watching our 6 key market metrics to determine the internal, “under the hood” health of the market as this level is being tested.  A sustained rise above it should clear the way for even better gains in the upcoming months.  Stay tuned.

 

Asbury Research subscribers can view our latest research on the US stock market, market sectors and industry groups, interest rates, ETFs and commodities — plus our current picks in individual US stocks and ETFs — by logging into the Research Center via the big gold button in the upper right corner of the screen.

Subscribers and interested investors can view our recent closed out trade ideas by Clicking Here.

To non-subscribers:  Request more information about us, including service and pricing options, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.

Asbury Investment Management (AIM): Our Latest Video

Click Here for a video that explains how we used our latest research to better manage client portfolios.

For further information about Asbury Research Management,
please email or call 1-844-4-ASBURY (1-844-427 2879).


10-Year Notes’ Collapse Back Below 3.00%: What It Means For The Market

In our previous May 19th Research Excerpt, entitled Long Term Interest Rates At Major Decision Point, we provided an excerpt from our May 16th Keys To This Week report (access requires subscription) which pointed out that the yield of the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note was testing a major inflection point at 3.13%

Knowing where these key levels are, ahead of time, is the next best thing to knowing how the market is going to react to them.

From that May 16th report:

Our primary focus this week is on the market’s reaction to major yield resistance in the 10-Year Treasury Note at 3.08% to 3.13%, which is currently being tested.The next significant move in these benchmark yields, either up to the 3.34% to 3.68% area, or back down towards 3.00%, perhaps to the 2.88% to 2.77% area, is likely to begin from this major inflection point.  More intermediate term metrics favor a decline back toward 3.00% or lower.

The pink highlights in the newly-updated chart below show that 10-Year yields actually peaked at 3.11% on May 17th before collapsing all the way back to 2.77% by May 29th, which is an atypically sharp decline of 34 basis points in just 8 business days.

US 10-Year Treasury Yields daily since 2015

The next level of underlying yield support is major support at 2.62% to 2.47%.  This major support area must contain US 10-Year yields on the downside for the current major trend of rising long term US interest rates to remain valid and intact.  A trend of rising interest rates is generally characteristic of a thriving, growing economy, while declining interest rates suggest an economy that is struggling. 

Why is being aware of these key interest rate levels so important?  Because the yield of the 10-Year Treasury Note is the benchmark for long term interest rates in the US, and is also used as the common denominator for various credit spreads that include mortgage-backed, corporates, and agencies, all which are used to set the pricing/risk for various interest rate-related products.

Disclaimer: This report is provided for information purposes only. Past performance may not necessarily indicate future results. No inferences may be made and no guarantees of profitability are being stated by Asbury Research LLC.  The risk of loss trading in financial assets can be substantial.  Therefore, you should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Asbury Research subscribers can view our latest research on US interest rates, as well as the US stock market, market sectors, ETFs and commodities — plus a table with our current picks in individual US stocks and ETFs — by logging into the Research Center via the big gold button in the upper right corner of the screen.

Subscribers and interested investors can view our recent closed out trade ideas by Clicking Here.

To non-subscribers:  Request more information about us, including service and pricing options, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.

Asbury Investment Management (AIM): Our Latest Video

In addition to publishing periodic Research Excerpts from Asbury Research, every several weeks we also produce a video that takes an up-to-date look the markets from an asset management standpoint, and shows how Asbury Investment Management is actually managing client assets using  Asbury Research ideas.

Click Here To Watch Our Latest Video

For further information about Asbury Research Management, please email or call 1-844-4-ASBURY (1-844-427 2879).

 


Long Term Interest Rates At Major Decision Point

For the past month, the day-to-day movement in the stock market has been squarely focused on US interest rates as the yield of the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note has recently made a sustained move back above 3.00% — for the first time since mid 2011.  These yields closed at 3.11% yesterday, May 17th.   Rising long term interest rates amid a tightening Federal Reserve, although indicative that the Fed has confidence in the sustainability of recent economic growth, can eventually become a drag on equity prices as the cost of borrowing  increases.

The charts and text below are an excerpt from our May 16th Keys To This Week report (access requires subscription) for US interest rates and Treasuries, showing Keys #3 and #4 of 10 — which we provide to subscribers every week.  (Separate Keys To This Week reports are produced for the US stock market, US market sectors and industry groups, and economically-influential commodity prices like crude oil, copper, and gold.) 

The charts show that long term US interest are currently at a major inflection point, from which the recent rise in rates can either accelerate further  — putting downside pressure on US stocks — or begin a significant reversal that can potentially push 10-Year yields back below 3.00%.

 

excerpted from

Keys To This Week, May 16th 2018: US Interest Rates & Treasuries

Support/Resistance & Trend: The Yield of the US 10-Year Treasury Note. MAJOR DECISION POINT.  The red highlights in Chart 3 below show that the yield of the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note is currently testing major, long term resistance at 3.04% to 3.13%, which represents the December 2013 benchmark high and June 2003 benchmark low.  Major levels in yield like this one are typically not significantly and sustainably broken without at least a several week corrective decline first.

Chart 3 of 6

Support/Resistance & Trend: CBOE 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index (TNX). MAJOR DECISION POINT. The red highlights in Chart 4 below show that TNX, which is based on 10 times the yield-to-maturity on the most recently auctioned 10-year Treasury note, is also testing major, long term resistance, at 30.83 to 31.00, which represents the June 2003 benchmark low and February 2000 major downtrend line.  This equates to a 3.08% to 3.10% cash 10-Year Treasury yield.  Again, major levels in yield like this one are typically not significantly and sustainably broken without at least a several week corrective decline first.

Chart 4 of 6

Market expectations for more Fed rate hikes, according to the CME Federal Fund futures contract, are currently pricing in a 95% chance of another 25 bps hike to 175-200 bps at the June 13th Federal Open Market Committee Meeting.  This has helped keep steady upward pressure on long term US interest rates. 

A sustained rise above 3.13% in US 10-Year yields would indicate an emerging secular trend change, toward higher long term interest rates, and would clear the way for a potentially quick move to the 3.34% to 3.68% area, leading to an eventual move to 4.00% later in the year.  This would be expected to have an adverse effect on the US stock market. 

Conversely, if 3.13% holds as yields begin moving back down, this should help to fuel a stock market rally to new all-time highs.


Asbury Research subscribers can view our latest research on the US stock market, market sectors, US interest rates, ETFs and commodities, as well as a table with our current picks in US stocks, ETFs, and global indexes, by logging into the Research Center via the big gold button in the upper right corner of the screen.

Subscribers and interested investors can view our most recent closed out trade ideas by Clicking Here.

To non-subscribers:  Request more information about us, including service and pricing options, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.

Interest in asset management?  Click Here to learn more about our sister company, Asbury Investment Management.

This report is provided for information purposes only. Past performance may not necessarily indicate future results. No inferences may be made and no guarantees of profitability are being stated by Asbury Research LLC.  The risk of loss trading in financial assets can be substantial.  Therefore, you should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.


Upside Target Met In SPDR Health Care Equipment ETF (XHE)

The chart below shows that the SPDR Health Care Equipment ETF (XHE) met our 75.50 per share upside target yesterday, May 17th, which was first displayed and discussed in our March 12 Keys To This Week report (access requires subscription), to capture a $4.12 per share, 6% price advance in just a little over 2 months.

XHE also outperformed the S&P 500 (SPX) by 7.1% during the same period.

Here is the chart.

XHE daily: August 2017 through May 17th

 

We publish these notifications for 3 reasons:

  1. to let Asbury Research subscribers know when to consider taking profits on existing positions,
  2. to let non-subscribers track what we are doing in the market, in real time, and
  3. to make everyone aware of a potential upcoming price reversal as price advances often end as upside targets are met and more savvy investors take profits.

 

Asbury Research subscribers can view our latest research on the US stock market, market sectors, US interest rates, ETFs and commodities, as well as a table with our current picks in US stocks, ETFs, and global indexes, by logging into the Research Center via the big gold button in the upper right corner of the screen.

Subscribers and interested investors can view our most recent closed out trade ideas by Clicking Here.

To non-subscribers:  Request more information about us, including service and pricing options, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.


The SOX Leading Higher & New AIM Video

In our previous Research Excerpt, entitled Semiconductors: A Key To The Market’s Next Move, we published an excerpt and accompanying chart from our Monday April 30th Keys To This Week report (access requires subscription).

Here it is again:

Support/Resistance & Trend: PHLX Semiconductor (SOX) Index.
MAJOR DECISION POINT. 

The orange highlights in Chart 5 below show that the market-leading SOX Index begins this week just above major overhead resistance at 1362, its 200-day moving average which was tested and held last week.  In addition, the green highlights show that more important support exists just below it at 1211, which represents the December and February lows.  How the SOX resolves this major support area is likely to indicate, if not lead, the US broad market’s next significant directional move.

PHLX Semiconductor Index, August 2017 to Apr 27th

We chose this particular chart for this week’s Research Excerpt because of semiconductors’ tendency to lead the US broad market both higher and lower.

The next chart is a newly updated version of that chart.  It shows that the SOX has since rebounded by 71.00 points or 6%, and is once again challenging its 1362 top-of-the-tech-bubble high — actually for the fifth time since Thanksgiving.

PHLX Semiconductor Index, August 2017 to May 9th

During the same short period, the benchmark S&P 500 — which typically follows the SOX — has risen by 43.00 points or 2%.

We would view a sustained rise above SOX 1362 as evidence that the SOX is establishing a new, higher long term trading range, which we would expect to have a similarly positive influence over the US broad market.

We note that the current sideways, volatile, coiling market activity since late January indicates investor indecision — and typically becomes the springboard for the market’s next sustained trending phase, either up or down.

Asbury Research subscribers can view our latest research on the US stock market, market sectors, US interest rates, ETFs and commodities, the current status of our Correction Protection Model (CPM), and our current picks in US stocks, ETFs, and global indexes, by logging into the Research Center via the big gold button in the upper right corner of the screen.

To non-subscribers:  Request more information about us, including service and pricing options, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.


New Asbury Investment Management (AIM) Video

 

Back in late February we announced the launching of Asbury Investment Management (AIM).

 

Click Here to view our latest AIM Video, produced on May 9th. 

It shows how we actually managed client accounts during this recent period of high volatility, non-directional market activity.  Asbury Research ideas, professionally managed.

Click Here to get on our contact list, which will include you in our periodic emails to announce a new video, to update our performance, or to advise of other Asbury Investment Management-related news.

You can also call 1-844-4 ASBURY (1-844-427-2879) for further information.


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