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Here we periodically publish a chart and a brief excerpt from one of our premium research reports, a link or a video from one of our appearances in the financial media, or a notification that one of our price targets has been met, for the purpose of familiarizing potential subscriber with our investment research and to stay on the radar of those who have expressed an interest in us.

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You are receiving this special holiday offer because you have previously requested information about our investment research.

If you have been considering a subscription to Asbury Research
but have been putting it off, this is a great time to act.
Regardless of whether you are a professional/institution
or individual investor:

between now and midnight on December 31st, 2018 only we will take 20% off of the price that we previously quoted you during 2018 for our research services.

If you need us to resend your pricing information, just contact us at sales@asburyresearch.com and we will provide you with that information, including a description of services provided and a new quote that includes your 20% discount.

Act Now!  This offer is only good through December 31st 2018, or
when a limited number of available subscriptions runs out.
New Subscribers Only!

 

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Holiday Savings From Asbury Research

christmas-lights-3

You are receiving this special holiday offer because you have previously requested information about our investment research.

If you have been considering a subscription to Asbury Research
but have been putting it off, this is a great time to act.
Regardless of whether you are a professional/institution
or individual investor:

between now and midnight on December 31st, 2018 only we will take 20% off of the price that we previously quoted you during 2018 for our research services.

If you need us to resend your pricing information, just contact us at sales@asburyresearch.com and we will provide you with that information, including a description of services provided and a new quote that includes your 20% discount.

Act Now!  This offer is only good through December 31st 2018, or
when a limited number of available subscriptions runs out.
New Subscribers Only!

 

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Initial Downside Targets Met in Russell 2000 (RUT), NYSE Composite (COMP). More Weakness Coming?

From Monday’s (December 17th) Keys To This Week (access requires subscription):

“This week, the most important new development is technical breakdowns in several US stock indexes which collectively target an additional 3% to 6% move lower, depending on the index.  Meanwhile, all of our Asbury 6 key market internals begin the week in negative territory, indicating that conditions are currently the least favorable for adding risk to portfolios/ most favorable for a deeper decline.”

The indexes we were specifically talking about in that report were the S&P 500 (SPX), Russell 2000 (RUT), and NYSE Composite (NYSE). 

  • RUT has since declined by 4.3% from Friday’s (Dec 14th) close to meet our 1350 target today.
  • NYSE has since declined by 3.5% from Friday’s (Dec 14th) close to meet our 11,350 target today.
  • SPX has already declined by 3.6% from Friday’s (Dec 14th) close, and by 7.2% since our December 6th Special Report entitled This Week’s Reversal Threatens A Much Larger Decline.  That forward-looking report appears below.

SPX still has an additional 2.3% to go to meet our 2450 target.


Special Report

This Week’s Reversal Threatens A Much Larger Decline

Posted on: Thursday, December 6th, 2018

Conclusion, Investment Implications, Strategy

Tuesday’s sharp downward reversal from critical overhead resistance at 2817 in the  S&P 500 (SPX) has set up a potentially bearish chart pattern in the benchmark US index.  A sustained decline below SPX 2643 would confirm it and would then target an additional 7% decline to 2450, or a total of 9% from Tuesday’s 2700 close.

Analysis

Chart 1 below plots SPX daily since July along with its 200-day (major trend proxy) and 50-day (minor trend proxy) moving averages.  The red highlights show that the large, directionless gyrations of the past 5 weeks have formed a pattern of investor indecision that is bordered by 2800 above the market and by 2643 below it.

Chart 1

A sustained decline below the lower boundary at 2643 would confirm a bearish resolution to this indecision and would target an additional 7% decline to 2450.


We hope our market analysis helped Asbury Research Subscribers to avoid some of the recent market weakness. Feel free to contact us at any time to discuss our latest research, or your portfolio.


Our Downside Targets Met In TSN, KCE

Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) Meets Our $54.00 Downside Target

In our December 4th Asbury Alert, entitled Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN): Resuming Late 2017 Decline (access requires subscription), we pointed out the retest of a November 13th breakdown from months of sideways investor indecision that targeted an additional 8% decline to $54.00 per share.

Here is the chart from that report.

TSN: May 2018 to December 4th

This updated chart shows that our 54.00 downside target was met earlier today.

TSN: May 2018 to December 17th


SPDR KBW Capital Markets ETF (KCE) Meets Our $48.50 Downside Target

In our December 10th Keys To This Week report, we pointed out a breakdown from about 6 weeks of sideways investor indecision in KCE, which represents the capital markets segment of the S&P Total Market Index (“S&P TMI”) and tracks the performance of publicly traded companies that do business as broker-dealers, asset managers, trust and custody banks or exchanges.

We said this breakdown indicated its larger August 2nd downtrend was resuming and targeted an additional 3% decline to $48.50.

KCE: June 2018 to December 17th

The chart above shows that our 48.50 target was met earlier today.

 

We publish these notifications for 3 reasons:

  1. to let Asbury Research subscribers know when to consider taking profits on existing positions,
  2. to let non-subscribers track what we are doing in the market, in real time, and
  3. to make everyone aware of a potential upcoming price reversal as price advances often end as upside targets are met and more savvy investors take profits.

 


Asbury Research’s Stock Market Update & Asbury Investment Management Video: December 14th, 2018

US Stock Market: On The Brink Of A Deeper Decline

In early October we alerted Asbury Research subscribers of weakening market internals, and started protecting Asbury Investment Management (AIM) portfolios against a bearish reversal in what appeared to be a weakening US stock market.

Less than a month later, the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) had collapsed by 11% to 2604 by October 29th as shown in the chart below.  The index subsequently ripped higher into the 2815 November 7th high and, as shown by the blue highlights, has been trading within those two extremes ever since.

S&P 500: July 2018 through the present

There are 2 important takeaways here:

  1. The sideways trade of the past two months, as highlighted in blue, indicates investor indecision and, as such, is the probable starting point of the US broad market’s next directional move, and
  2. SPX has mostly been trading below its 200-day moving average, a widely-watched major trend proxy, which means the major trend is down (bearish).

Corroborating Takeaway #2 is the fact that 57 of the 60 global stock markets we track are also trading below their 200-day moving averages.

The red highlights on the chart show that, inside the past two months of of sideways trade, a smaller, triangular pattern exists, and that SPX is starting to trade below its lower boundary at 2655.  This suggests the market is currently leaning downward, toward even lower prices, which would be confirmed by a sustained decline below 2604.

A move below 2604 would indicate that the current major downtrend in SPX, which was initiated by the sharp October decline, is resuming.  Should this occur, we will be watching key chart levels below the market, along with our key internal market metrics, for opportunities to reestablish long positions at much lower, and better, levels.

The video below shows how we have navigated these choppy conditions for Asbury Research Management clients over the past several weeks.


Asbury Investment Management (AIM): Our Latest Video

Thank you for your interest in Asbury Investment Management. We attempt to provide the highest level risk management and investment performance available.  Anyone can provide you exposure to the markets. We bring our undivided attention, skill and experience to investing AND protecting our clients capital. We hope you will find these bi-weekly commentary and video reviews informative and helpful. Please don’t ever hesitate to ask if you would like to have a more in-depth conversation about our processes.

Click Here for our 12/13/2018 Video Review, which explains how we have used Asbury Research’s market analysis and investment ideas to professionally manage client portfolios.

For further information about Asbury Research Management, please email or call 1-844-4-ASBURY (1-844-427-2879).

 


Asbury Research’s Stock Market Update & Asbury Investment Management Video: November 27th, 2018

US Stock Market: Price Trends, Market Internals Remain Weak

At the time of our previous November 8th Update, the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) was in the midst of a corrective rebound following a sharp 11% decline between October 3rd and October 29th — a decline that we were fortunate enough to anticipate and, for the most part, avoid.

In that update we pointed out that the daily total net assets invested in the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY, which tracks the S&P 500) had just moved back above their 21-day (monthly, our tactical time frame) moving average to indicate an emerging trend of monthly expansion, similar to that which fueled the previous broad market rally from mid September to early October.

Editor’s Note: The total net assets invested in SPY are one of our “Asbury 6” key market internals.  We update the Asbury 6 every day and make them available to Asbury Research subscribers.

The chart below, an updated version of the one from our November 8th Update, shows that these assets have since declined back below their 21-day moving average as of November 19th, indicating a new trend of monthly contraction and a Negative reading.

The daily total net assets invested in SPY

In addition, the other five market metrics that comprise the Asbury 6 are also currently in negative territory, collectively indicating a risk off mode.

If and when these metrics move back to a positive (risk on) status, we will once again advocate a more aggressive stance in both our investment research (Asbury Research) and portfolio allocations (Asbury Investment Management).  Until then, however, we  remain in a defensive, capital preservation mode.


Asbury Investment Management (AIM): Our Latest Video

Click Here for our 11/27/2018 Video Review, which explains how we have used our latest research to professionally manage client portfolios.

For further information about Asbury Research Management, please email or call 1-844-4-ASBURY (1-844-427-2879).


Nervous Bond Market Warns Of More Pain In US Stocks

In our October 22nd Research Excerpt, entitled The Put/Call Ratio: If The Market Can’t Rally Here, It’s In Trouble, we published one of the charts from our October Monthly Investment Compass (MIC, access requires subscription).

It showed that the CBOE Put/Call Ratio was hovering at a previous multi-year most bearish extreme, indicating a high ratio of put volume versus call volume,  that had closely coincided with every near term bottom in the S&P 500 this year.  We said:

“…unless the S&P 500 (SPX) recovers from major support near 2768 this week, the US broad market has probably changed it’s previous positive bias and is now in the early stages of a major bearish trend change — and headed significantly lower later on this quarter.”

Since then, SPX has declined by 101.00 points or 4%.

The graphic below displays Slide 16 of 30 from our latest, November 17th Monthly Investment Compass.  It shows that high yield corporate bond spreads have been in a trend of monthly widening since November 9th and — if you discount just two days of narrowing on November 7th and 8th — really since October 5th.

Slide 16 of 30: November 17th Monthly Investment Compass

The bond market is typically more forward-looking than the stock market. As a result, the S&P 500 has historically been unable to sustain rallies when corporate bond spreads are widening — which indicates that the bond market sees trouble ahead.  Moreover, the longer the spread remains in a trend of monthly (our tactical time period) widening, the more likely the US broad market is to slip into a sustained bearish trend.

 

Asbury Research subscribers can view our latest research on the US stock market, market sectors, US interest rates, ETFs and commodities, as well as a table with our current picks in US stocks, ETFs, and global indexes, by logging into the Research Center via the big gold button in the upper right corner of the screen.

To non-subscribers:  Request more information about us, including service and pricing options, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.

For asset management, please visit the Asbury Investment Management (AIM) website.


Reviewing Our July 12th Educational Webinar: Where We Were & Where We’re Going

Monday, November 12th marked exactly 4 months since our July 12th 2018 webinar for Fidelity Investments, entitled Asbury Research’s 2018 Mid Year Investment Update.  In these webinars, which we have been regularly presenting to a number of investment firms and professional organizations since 2015, we show serious investors some of the tools that a veteran market strategist uses to improve investment performance while also protecting assets, and hopefully teach them how to be better informed and more successful investors.

The following market analysis is taken from the Executive Summary of our July 12th webinar for Fidelity (black text), followed by how the financial markets we discussed have fared since then (red highlights).


US Stock Market Outlook, July 12th: 

Despite recent geopolitical jitters,the US stock market is still in the midst of positive trends in most indexes, and amid mostly favorable technical/quantitative conditions for more strength. Specifically, we are expecting the  benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) to rise by as much as an additional 7%.

The S&P 500 proceeded to rise by an additional 6% into the 2941 September 21st high.

Market Size (where to be invested), July 12th:

Large Cap stocks remain amid favorable conditions for upcoming relative outperformance versus the S&P 1500.  Meanwhile, Small Cap is at opposite over-loved extremes and thus vulnerable to upcoming relative underperformance versus the S&P 1500.

Since July 12th, the iShares LargeCap S&P 500 ETF (IVV) has outperformed the iShares S&P 1500 Index Fund (ITOT) by 27% through October 24th.  Meanwhile, the iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Index underperformed the iShares S&P 1500 Index Fund (ITOT) by 21% also since October 24th.

Market Sectors (what to be invested in), July 12th:

We are currently overweight Utilities, Consumer Staples, Health Care and Real Estate, and are outright positive on Consumer Discretionary.

Since then:

  • The SPDR Utilities Sector ETF (XLU) outperformed the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by 11% through October 24th
  • The SPDR Consumer Staples ETF (XLP) outperformed SPY by 11% through October 30th
  • The SPDR Health Care Sector ETF (XLV) outperformed SPY by 8% through November 12th
  • The SPDR Real Estate Sector ETF (XLRE) outperformed SPY by 3% through November 13th
  • The SPDR Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) rose by 7% through October 1st

No one can see into the future, and no one gets the markets right all the time.  We are certainly no exception.  But we do firmly believe that our comprehensive blend of technical, quantitative and behavioral market metrics — combined with almost 40 years of experience — can help to identify good investing opportunities in all market environments and, more importantly, can significantly limit losses and protect capital during adverse market moves.

Contact us to get more information about our research and services for professional and individual investors.

Asbury Research subscribers can view our latest research on the US stock market, market sectors, US interest rates, ETFs and commodities, as well as a table with our current picks in US stocks, ETFs, and global indexes, by logging into the Research Center via the big gold button in the upper right corner of the screen.

To non-subscribers:  Request more information about us, including service and pricing options, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 888-960-0005.

For asset management, please visit the Asbury Investment Management (AIM) website.


Asbury Research’s Stock Market Update & Asbury Investment Management Video: November 8th, 2018

US Stock Market: Recovering From An 11% October Correction

In our October 25th report, we said that our Asbury 6 key market internals — as well as our Correction Protection Model (CPM) — were all in Negative territory as of early October, indicating a “risk-off environment” and a market that was vulnerable to a corrective decline.  The benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) did indeed correct lower, by 11% between October 3rd and October 29th but, due to these timely signals from our metrics, we were able to 1) identify the danger for Asbury Research subscribers and 2) actually avoid most of the decline for Asbury Investment Management (AIM) clients.

As it stands right now, however, both CPM and our Asbury 6 are indicating the internal condition of the market has significantly improved.  One of our Asbury 6, ETF asset flows, is shown in the lower panel of the chart below.

SPX and SPY Total Net Assets

The rightmost green highlights show that the daily total net assets invested in the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY, which tracks the S&P 500) have moved back above their 21-day (monthly, our tactical time frame) moving average as of Wednesday, November 7th.  This indicates an emerging trend of monthly expansion, similar to that which fueled higher prices in the S&P 500 (upper panel) from mid September to early October, and also from early July to late August.

Expanding investor assets indicate investor conviction in higher prices.  As long as this emerging new trend of monthly expansion continues, the current broad market rally from  the late October lows is likely to continue.


Asbury Investment Management (AIM): Our Latest Video

Click Here for our 11/8/2018 Video Review, which explains how we have used our latest research to professionally manage client portfolios.

For further information about Asbury Research Management, please email or call 1-844-4-ASBURY (1-844-427-2879).


Asbury Research’s Stock Market Update & Asbury Investment Management Video: October 25th 2018

Stock Market Breaking Major Support Amid Weak Internals

From our October 8th Keys To This Week report (access requires subscription):

“The benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) begins this week right on top of minor underlying support at 2873 to 2863 while 3 of our Asbury 6 market internals have moved into negative (bearish) territory.  Moreover, anther two of our Asbury 6 appear to be just another weak session or two away from also turning negative. 

This means SPX must recover from 2873 to 2863 immediately, on improving market internals, or will slip into a corrective phase and a potential test of major support at 2802 to 2763, which is an additional 3% to 4% below the market.”

A little more than 2 weeks later, the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) has since collapsed by 234 points or 8.1.% and is now up just 1.2% for the year.

Is this the buying opportunity we’ve been waiting for, or just the beginning of a very bad 4th Quarter?

The good news is that SPX is currently testing underlying support at 2692, a level that we previously identified in our October 7th US Stock Market UpdateThese support levels are potential places for significant market bottoms to emerge. 

The bad news is that all of our Asbury 6 key market internals, per Table 1 one below, are in negative (bearish) territory.

Table 1

Our Asbury 6, which we update and make available daily in our research products, and are also a key component in our investment management decisions, measure the stock market’s internal strength in 6 different ways.

As long as all Asbury 6 remain in negative territory, it suggests a “risk off” environment where we focus on protecting investor assets rather than putting new money to work.


Asbury Investment Management (AIM): Our Latest Video

Click Here for our 10/24/2018 Video Review, which explains how we have used our latest research to professionally manage client portfolios.

For further information about Asbury Research Management, please email or call 1-844-4-ASBURY (1-844-427 2879).


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