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Here we periodically publish a chart and a brief excerpt from one of our premium research reports, a link or a video from one of our appearances in the financial media, or a notification that one of our price targets has been met, for the purpose of familiarizing potential subscriber with our investment research and to stay on the radar of those who have expressed an interest in us.

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Asbury Research’s Stock Market Update & Asbury Investment Management Video: June 5th, 2019

This Week’s Market Bounce: New Buying Opportunity Or Place To Further Reduce Risk?

The title of our previous May 22nd update was It’s Sink Or Swim Time For US Stocks.  In that report, we said:

“..without improving market internals, as would be seen in a positive shift in our Asbury 6, it is likely to be the latter (sinking stock prices).”

And sink they did, by another 127 points or 4.5% by the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) into the 2729 June 3rd low.

Chart 1 below shows that this week’s rebound was actually triggered by a test of important underlying support at 2722, which is the March 8th benchmark low.

Chart 1

This is a logical place for the market to begin a rebound, as traders cover short positions and value hunters look to “buy the dip”.

However, at least so far, this logical place for a rebound has not  yet shown any indications that it’s any more than that.  Table 1 below shows that our Asbury 6 key market internals, which measure the market’s strength “under the hood” in six different ways, is still negative (bearish) as it has been since May 7th — which was just three trading days off the May 1st all-time high.

Table 1

Our Asbury 6 can change quickly, however, so we will be closely monitoring them this week for any indications that this technical bounce from support has evolved into a new buying opportunity.

The video below shows how we have used Asbury Research’s analysis and strategy to manage investor assets, in real time, for our Asbury Research Management clients.


Asbury Investment Management (AIM): Our Latest Video
Asbury Research Ideas, Expertly Managed

Click Here for our 06/04/2019 Video Review,
which explains how we have recently utilized Asbury Research’s market analysis and investment ideas to professionally manage client portfolios.

AIM offers a unique approach to investment management that is dynamic, based on the current condition and risk/reward profile of the financial markets, rather than on whatever your investment allocation may have been pre-determined to be.

For further information about Asbury Research Management, please email or call 1-844-4-ASBURY (1-844-427-2879).

This communication is for informational purposes only. It is not intended as investment advice, or as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial asset.  No inferences may be made and no guarantees of profitability are being stated by Asbury Research LLC.  The risk of loss trading in financial assets can be substantial. Therefore, you should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.


Introducing Our Updated Correction Protection Model (CPM)

Introduction

In 2013 we introduced our Correction Protection Model (CPM) to Asbury Research subscribers, which we had back-tested to 2007.  That model did an outstanding job of essentially avoiding the entire 2008 Financial Crisis, and subsequently performed well in real time by simply staying invested during market advances and moving to cash during market declines.

However, the character of the market has changed over the past several years (as it typically does over time) due to a number of factors including quantitative easing, a more accommodative central bank policy, and the fact that 70% of daily stock market volume is now attributable to algorithmic trading.  In our view, these factors have resulted in more sustained market advances, smaller, quicker market declines, and more choppy and erratic day-to-day price movement.

Although our original 2013 CPM entries have continued to perform very well in the current environment, the exits have become less effective.  Because of this, in early 2019 we began working on updating and improving CPM.

This newly updated version of CPM, which has been back-tested to 2011, has the exact same purpose of the original version.  It is a defensive model with the primary objective of protecting investor assets during adverse market conditions, but otherwise remaining invested to take advantage of the market’s historical propensity to move higher over time.

Here are the details.

CPM’s Purpose & Key Features

  • Protects investors against significant market declines
  • without sacrificing long term performance, under a variety of market conditions,
  • all while greatly reducing market risk as measured by actual time invested and by volatility of returns.

More About CPM

  • CPM is binary.  It is either Risk On (invested in the market) or Risk Off (out of the market).  There are no short positions, leveraged longs, or hedging via derivatives.
  • CPM is not a returns-driven model. It was designed to protect investor assets during adverse market conditions while taking advantage of the market’s historical propensity to move higher over time.
  • CPM utilizes 3 quantitative inputs.
  • CPM uses the S&P 500 as a proxy for the market.

Performance Highlights.  Since 2011:

  • CPM has averaged 5 signals per year.
  • CPM has only been in the market 64% of the time, significantly reducing risk.
  • Table 1 below shows that CPM has outperformed the S&P 500 4 of the past 8 years.

    Table 1

  • Table 2 below shows CPM’s maximum drawdown (over a rolling 90-day period) has been 9.5% versus 17.9% for the S&P 500, which is 47% less.
  • Table 2 also shows CPM’s implied volatility has been 4.45% versus 5.91% for the S&P 500, which means CPM has been 25% less risky.

    Table 2

  • The chart below plots the daily performance in index points for both CPM and SPX from January 2011 through May 2019, showing that CPM has outperformed SPX by 273 index points or 9.9% during this period.

Chart 1

Click on tables and charts above to enlarge

The Bottom Line

Since 2011, CPM has:

  • outperformed the S&P 500 (SPX),
  • reduced the time invested in the market by 36%,
  • reduced the maximum drawdown in SPX by 47%, and
  • reduced the volatility of market returns (implied volatility) by 25%.

Simply stated, CPM provides Asbury Research subscribers with a methodology to participate in US stock market advances while significantly reducing market exposure and market risk during stock market declines.

 

Disclaimer: All investment models have inherent limitations in that they look back over previous data but can’t see into the future, and CPM is no different. Past performance does not guarantee future results.  These limitations aside, however, our model argues against the buy and hold “strategy” and the assertion by its proponents that “you can’t time the market” or “you can’t beat the market”.

Attempting to get out of the way of an emerging market decline comes with the inherent risk of potentially missing out on some performance — especially considering the current “buy the dip” mentality engendered by a decade of stimulative Federal Reserve policy.  However, our model’s performance is a testament to intelligent quantitative risk management, showing that a conservative, systematic, and repeatable process of active management can over time significantly outperform passive buy and hold.

This data is provided for information purposes only. Past performance or back-tested results may not necessarily indicate future results. The performance indicated from back-testing or historical track record may not be typical of future performance. No inferences may be made and no guarantees of profitability are being stated by Asbury Research LLC. The risk of loss trading in financial assets can be substantial. Therefore, you should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.


Memorial Day Savings From Asbury Research: Last Day!

You are receiving this special holiday offer because you have previously requested information about our investment research.

If you have been considering a subscription to Asbury Research
but have been putting it off, this is a great time to act.

Between now and midnight on Memorial Day, Monday May 27th, we will take 20% off of the price that we previously quoted you for our research services
(previously discounted pricing not included).

If you need us to resend your pricing information, just contact us at sales@asburyresearch.com and we will provide you with that information, including a description of services provided and a new quote that includes your 20% discount.

Act Now!  This offer is only good through May 27th 2019, or
when a limited number of available subscriptions runs out.
New Subscribers Only!


Memorial Day Savings From Asbury Research: 2 Days Left

You are receiving this special holiday offer because you have previously requested information about our investment research.

If you have been considering a subscription to Asbury Research
but have been putting it off, this is a great time to act.

Between now and midnight on Memorial Day, Monday May 27th, we will take 20% off of the price that we previously quoted you for our research services
(previously discounted pricing not included).

If you need us to resend your pricing information, just contact us at sales@asburyresearch.com and we will provide you with that information, including a description of services provided and a new quote that includes your 20% discount.

Act Now!  This offer is only good through May 27th 2019, or
when a limited number of available subscriptions runs out.
New Subscribers Only!


Memorial Day Savings From Asbury Research

You are receiving this special holiday offer because you have previously requested information about our investment research.

If you have been considering a subscription to Asbury Research
but have been putting it off, this is a great time to act.

Between now and midnight on Memorial Day, Monday May 27th, we will take 20% off of the price that we previously quoted you for our research services
(previously discounted pricing not included).

If you need us to resend your pricing information, just contact us at sales@asburyresearch.com and we will provide you with that information, including a description of services provided and a new quote that includes your 20% discount.

Act Now!  This offer is only good through May 27th 2019, or
when a limited number of available subscriptions runs out.
New Subscribers Only!


Asbury Research’s Stock Market Update & Asbury Investment Management Video: May 22nd, 2019

It’s Sink Or Swim Time For US Stocks

In our previous May 6th update, we said as goes technology, so is likely to go the market”.

Tech bellwether NASDAQ 100 (NDX) immediately declined by 490 points or 6% over the next week, into the May 13th lows, and is trading just above that area now.

At the same time, the chart below shows that the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) also reversed lower from a failed attempt to rise and remain above its 2941 September 2018 all-time high, and quickly collapsed to test  — and thus far hold — major underlying support at 2800 to 2777.

S&P 500 (SPX) daily since Sept 2018

If the current 2019 US stock market advance is still healthy and intact, it must resume from at or above this major support. 

However, the table below shows that our Asbury 6 key market internals — which we update daily in our Research Center — are all currently in negative territory.

The Asbury 6 through May 21st

When all Asbury 6 are negative, as they are now, stock market internals are the least conducive to adding risk to portfolios. 

How the S&P 500 resolves this major decision point is likely to determine whether the US stock market begins a rise to new all-time highs, or a long overdue and potentially nasty corrective decline.  And without improving market internals, as would be seen in a positive shift in our Asbury 6, it is likely to be the latter.

The video below shows how we have used Asbury Research’s analysis and strategy to manage investor assets, in real time, for our Asbury Research Management clients.


Asbury Investment Management (AIM): Our Latest Video
Asbury Research Ideas, Expertly Managed

Click Here for our 05/22/2019 Video Review, which explains how we have recently utilized Asbury Research’s market analysis and investment ideas to professionally manage client portfolios.

AIM offers a unique approach to investment management that is dynamic, based on the current condition and risk/reward profile of the financial markets, rather than on whatever your investment allocation may have been pre-determined to be.

For further information about Asbury Research Management, please email or call 1-844-4-ASBURY (1-844-427-2879).

This communication is for informational purposes only. It is not intended as investment advice, or as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial asset.  No inferences may be made and no guarantees of profitability are being stated by Asbury Research LLC.  The risk of loss trading in financial assets can be substantial. Therefore, you should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.


Memorial Day Savings From Asbury Research

You are receiving this special holiday offer because you have previously requested information about our investment research.

If you have been considering a subscription to Asbury Research
but have been putting it off, this is a great time to act.

Between now and midnight on Memorial Day, Monday May 27th, we will take 20% off of the price that we previously quoted you for our research services
(previously discounted pricing not included.)

If you need us to resend your pricing information, just contact us at sales@asburyresearch.com and we will provide you with that information, including a description of services provided and a new quote that includes your 20% discount.

Act Now!  This offer is only good through May 27th 2019, or
when a limited number of available subscriptions runs out.
New Subscribers Only!


Asbury Research’s Stock Market Update & Asbury Investment Management Video: May 6th, 2019

As Goes Technology, So Is Likely To Go The Market

In our previous April 19th update, we pointed out that the benchmark  S&P 500 (SPX) was positioned just below its September 2018 all-time high of 2941, and said this was an important decision point from which the US broad market’s next significant directional move — up or down — was likely to begin.

We also pointed out that the NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX), which represents market-leading technology stocks, was also simultaneously testing its October 2018 all-time high of 7701, and said

“…how NDX resolves this test of major resistance is likely to be a coincident — if not leading — indication of whether the 2019 US broad market advance continues its torrid pace into the summer or begins an overdue corrective decline.”

Chart 1 below, which is taken from this morning’s Keys To this Week report (access requires subscription), shows that NDX has since closed above its old 7701 high, actually for the past 9 sessions.  Moreover, despite a very weak opening today, NDX looks as though it will post its 10th close above it today.

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) daily since August 2018

As long as NDX. which represents technology, continues to lead and outperform SPX, which represent the broad market, the 2019 US stock advance is likely to continue.

That being said, we also fully understand that the US is in the 10th year of a bull market, and that the average length of a bull market is only about 4.5 years.  We also know that the yield curve has been flattening for almost 2 years, and that a flattening curve suggests that the prescient, forward-looking bond market is getting nervous about the economy.

Amid these conditions, we remain cautiously optimistic but are watching key support levels just below the market — as well as key market internals like investor asset flows, market breadth, and others — every single day so we are fully prepared and ready to protect our clients’ capital when the historically overdue correction inevitably occurs.

The video below shows how we have used Asbury Research analysis and strategy to manage investor assets, in real time, for our Asbury Research Management clients.


Asbury Investment Management (AIM): Our Latest Video
Asbury Research Ideas, Expertly Managed

Click Here for our 05/06/2019 Video Review, which explains how we have recently utilized Asbury Research’s market analysis and investment ideas to professionally manage client portfolios.

AIM offers a unique approach to investment management that is dynamic, based on the current condition and risk/reward profile of the financial markets, rather than on whatever your investment allocation may have been pre-determined to be.

For further information about Asbury Research Management, please email or call 1-844-4-ASBURY (1-844-427-2879).

This communication is for informational purposes only. It is not intended as investment advice, or as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial asset.  No inferences may be made and no guarantees of profitability are being stated by Asbury Research LLC.  The risk of loss trading in financial assets can be substantial. Therefore, you should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.


Asbury Research’s Stock Market Update & Asbury Investment Management Video: April 19th, 2019

The US Stock Market: Sell In May And Go Away?

In our previous April 2nd update, we pointed out that the S&P 500 (SPX) was moving above important overhead resistance at 2800 to 2817 and said this cleared the way for a retest of the broad market index’s September 2018 all-time high of 2941.  SPX has since risen by an additional 51 points or 1.8%, as expected, and is now positioned just below these all-time highs — setting up another near term decision point for the market, and the likely springboard for its next significant directional move.

Does the 2019 uptrend continue from here, or does the well-known “sell in May and go away” seasonal decline begin?

We are currently watching a short list of particularly relevant and important indexes and metrics to make this determination  — and as soon as possible.  One of these is the NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX), which represents market-leading technology stocks.  The chart below plots NDX daily since mid August with its 200-day moving average, a widely-watched major trend proxy.  Not shown is that NDX has been outperforming SPX since late November 2018, leading the US broad market higher.

NDX daily since August 2018

The red highlights show that this index has spent the past two days (April 17th and 18th) bumping up against  its 7701 October 2018 all-time highs, which is major resistance.  Considering Technology’s propensity to lead the US broad market both higher and lower, and NDX’s nearly lockstep positive correlation to SPX over the past 30 years, how NDX resolves this test of major resistance is likely to be a coincident — if not leading — indication of whether the 2019 US broad market advance continues its torrid pace into the summer or begins an overdue corrective decline.

The video below shows how we have managed investor assets, in real time, amid the latest market conditions for our Asbury Research Management clients.


Asbury Investment Management (AIM): Our Latest Video
Asbury Research Ideas, Expertly Managed

Click Here for our 04/19/2019 Video Review, which explains how we have recently utilized Asbury Research’s market analysis and investment ideas to professionally manage client portfolios.

AIM offers a unique approach to investment management that is dynamic, based on the current condition and risk/reward profile of the financial markets, rather than on whatever your investment allocation may have been pre-determined to be.

For further information about Asbury Research Management, please email or call 1-844-4-ASBURY (1-844-427-2879).

This communication is for informational purposes only. It is not intended as investment advice, or as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial asset.  No inferences may be made and no guarantees of profitability are being stated by Asbury Research LLC.  The risk of loss trading in financial assets can be substantial. Therefore, you should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.


Asbury Research’s Stock Market Update & Asbury Investment Management Video: April 2nd, 2019

The US Stock Market: Breaking Overhead Resistance Amid Improving Market Internals

In our previous March 13th update, we pointed out that the S&P 500 (SPX) had risen by 228 points or 9% since January 9th-10th, which is when our Asbury 6 key internal market metrics and Correction Protection Model CPM) both switched back to a positive. “Risk On” status, but most recently had declined to test primary underlying support at 2752 to 2739 on March 8th.

The chart below shows that SPX has since quickly rebounded from 2752 to 2739 support, back above overhead resistance at 2800 to 2817, and is actually setting new 2019 rally highs as of today.  This clears the way for continued strength and a potential retest of the broad market index’s September 2018 all-time high of 2941, as the 2817 to 2800 area now becomes underlying support.

S&P 500 daily since August 2018

Meanwhile, the table below shows that our Asbury 6 key stock market internals have all turned back to positive as of April 1st, after being split between positive and negative signals since March 13th — which is exactly when SPX started stalling at the 2800 to 2817 overhead resistance area from below.

(Editor’s Note: We update the Asbury 6 daily in our Research Center.)

The Asbury 6

There are also a few red flag on the horizon this quarter, among them too-bullish investor sentiment and a 60-year seasonal tendency for the S&P 500 to peak for the year during April.  However, as long as our key market internals remain positive, our bias will remain cautiously bullish on US stocks as it has since the beginning of the year.

The video, available below, shows how we have actually managed investor assets amid these recent market conditions for our Asbury Research Management clients.


Asbury Investment Management (AIM): Our Latest Video

Asbury Research Ideas, Expertly Managed

Click Here for our 04/02/2019 Video Review,

which explains how we have recently utilized Asbury Research’s market analysis and investment ideas to professionally manage client portfolios.

We offer a unique approach to investment management that is dynamic and based on the current condition and risk/reward profile of the financial markets, rather than on whatever your pre-established investment allocation might be.  Our portfolio team monitors the current condition of global financial markets every day, as it pertains to your account, and alters our tactical and strategic investment approach as market conditions change.

We hope you will find these bi-weekly commentaries and accompanying videos informative, educational, and useful. Feel feel to contact us with questions about the markets, and for further information about our unique approach.

For further information about Asbury Research Management, please email or call 1-844-4-ASBURY (1-844-427-2879).

This communication is for informational purposes only. It is not intended as investment advice, or as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial asset.  No inferences may be made and no guarantees of profitability are being stated by Asbury Research LLC.  The risk of loss trading in financial assets can be substantial. Therefore, you should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.


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