View Our
Sample Research

Here we periodically publish a chart and a brief excerpt from one of our premium research reports, a link or a video from one of our appearances in the financial media, or a notification that one of our price targets has been met, for the purpose of familiarizing potential subscriber with our investment research and to stay on the radar of those who have expressed an interest in us.

Anyone can sign up to receive our research excerpts, free of charge, by completing the Subscribe To Our Blog box at right.

Professional investors can request a free trial of our premium research by clicking here and typing TRIAL REQUEST in the “Reason For Inquiry” box.

If interested in an immediate subscription please email sales@asburyresearch.com or call 1-888-960-0005

The US Dollar: Back To Breakeven For 2011. Now What?

Our What We’re Watching Today pre-market opening charts and comments are one of 8 different reports that Asbury Research produces for subscribers, at various intervals throughout the month.

The following (green highlights) is an excerpt from our September 9th What We’re Watching Today report entitled, US Dollar Flirting With A Bullish Breakout.


Asbury Research’s What We’re Watching Today
The US Dollar
September 9th, 2011

In our September 7th What We’re Watching Today (access requires subscription) we pointed out that Euro/US Dollar (EURUSD) was testing major underlying support at 140.20 – which represents major overhead resistance for the US currency versus the euro.  Since then EURUSD has declined by an additional 3% to 1.3697, while at the same time the chart below shows that the US Dollar Index is negotiating a bullish breakout of its own.

(NOTE: The US Dollar Index is comprised of six component currencies: the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc and is 77% weighted towards Europe. The Japanese yen comprises just 14% of this index.)

The chart shows that the US Dollar Index is negotiating the upper boundary of its recent range at 76.78 to 77.18 today , which represents its 200-day moving average (orange line, a widely-watched major trend proxy) and its May 23rd and July 12th highs (upper blue highlights).  Also noteworthy is that today is the first day that the index has traded above its 200-day moving average on an intraday basis since September 13th 2010.

A close meaningfully (more than just a few ticks) above 77.18 would: 1) confirm a near to intermediate term bottom in the index at its May lows, 2) suggest that a major bullish trend change is emerging in the US currency, and 3) target an initial +5% rise to 80.50.


The close above 77.18 that we were looking for took place later that day, as the US Dollar Index closed at 77.90 on September 9th.  It has since risen by 2.53 or +3.2% to 80.43 thus far today, essentially meeting our 80.50 initial upside target.  In addition, the September rise in the Dollar brings it back to unchanged for 2011 for the first time since February 16th.

The rise in the US Dollar Index over the past month was, to a large degree, more of a least of two evils, flight-to-relative-safety out of the euro, rather than a ringing endorsement of the greenback.  Accordingly, we will view the path of the Dollar from here, as it negotiates breakeven for the year,  as an indirect indication of investors’ collective assessment of the European debt crisis — which has been crippling the US stock market since May.


Europe’s Influence On US Stocks In Q4:<br>John Kosar on Fox Business

John Kosar, Director of Research, appeared on Fox Business on September 29th 2011 to discuss the recent inter-market relationship between the German DAX and the S&P 500, and its implications for US stock market direction in Q4 2011.

We covered this topic in much greater detail in our September 28th  and September 15th What We’re Watching Today pre-opening comments, and in our September 8th US Financial Market Chart Book.

Asbury Research subscribers can access these reports by logging into our Research Center via the button at the upper right corner of the screen.

Professional investors can learn more about our investment research right here on our website which includes sample reports, client testimonials, our 2010 and 2011 market calls, and John Kosar’s recent appearances in the media.

Contact us for additional information online or by calling 224-569-4112.

Europe’s Influence On US Stocks In Q4:<br>John Kosar on Fox Business:


Appeared on:
September 30th, 2011 at 7:04 am


Seasonality: This Week Could Be Rough,<br>But Better Days Ahead?

The following is an excerpt from our September 2nd Global Seasonal Analysis report (access requires subscription), one of 8 different reports that Asbury Research produces for subscribers at various intervals throughout the month.

S&P 500 Monthly Seasonal Pattern Since 1957

In the US S&P 500 Index the green bar in the chart below highlights September as the seasonally weakest month of the year in the US broad market index since 1957.  September represents a sharp one-month decline from August, which is the 6th strongest month, but also leads into a Q4 recovery that accelerates into December.  

November and December are the 3rd and 1st seasonally strongest months for the S&P 500 during this 54-year period.

S&P 500 Weekly Seasonal Pattern In Q3 Since 1957

Our next chart breaks the seasonal pattern in the S&P 500 down further, into a quarterly time frame via 13 weekly increments.  The green columns show that the month of September includes three of the four seasonally weakest weeks of the entire 3rd Quarter , including this upcoming week which has been the weakest of the entire quarter.

I referred to the charts above back on June 2nd when I was a guest of CNBC’s Closing Bell (click the link to view it), during which I pointed out the 54-year seasonal tendency for a modest seasonal US stock market rebound in July that leads into acute seasonal weakness into September.  This year the S&P 500 rose into the 1356 July 7th high, according to the historical pattern, before collapsing by 254 points or 19% into the August lows – which are now being re-tested as of the end of last week.

Althoughthe seasonal tendency since 1957 has been for even more acute seasonal weakness during the last week of September, our seasonality data for the 4th Quarter does suggest the potential for a significant rebound that – assuming the larger seasonal pattern as shown in the first chart emerges again this year – could precede a performance chasing-driven recovery into year end.


As I stated in my CNBC interview, seasonality data are particularly useful when they corroborate what we are seeing in other key market factors including intermarket relationships, investor sentiment, relative performance, market breadth and volatility.

Asbury Research subscribers can get our latest market analysis by logging into the Research Center of our website at www,asburyresearch.com.

Interested investors can learn more about our investment research including sample reports, client testimonials, our 2010 and YTD 2011 market calls, and John Kosar’s recent appearances in the media right here on our website.


Right Now, Europe Is Driving The Bus

I just returned from a 3-day trip to the Northeast.  In between client visits I had the opportunity to speak at the September meeting of the Boston Chapter of the Market Technician’s Association, which was held on the trading floor of State Street Global Markets in Boston.

The following is one of the 25 charts from my presentation, which was taken from our September 8th US Financial Market Chart Book.  Subscribers can log into our Research Center (via the button at the top right edge of the screen) to view it.

We have been particularly interested in European equities over the past several months due to the downward pressure that European  sovereign debt issues have been exerting on the US market — which has resulted in the German DAX underperforming the SPX by a whopping 23% since June 22nd.

The chart shows that, as of our August 8th report, the DAX was positioned right on top of major support at 5178 to 5125 — which we considered to be a key inflection point for the DAX  from which its larger March 2009 advance should resume — if it was still intact.

Just this week (since Monday August 12th) the DAX has already aggressively rebounded from that support by 690 points or +14%.  Meanwhile, the positively-correlated S&P 500 has coincidentally risen by 84 points or +7%.

This is a good example of how understanding intermarket relationships, which is a big part of our analytical process, can often identify investment opportunities that might otherwise go unnoticed.

 Professional investors can learn more about our investment research right here on our website which includes sample reports, client testimonials, our 2010 market calls, and John Kosar’s recent appearances in the media.

Call us at 224-569-4122 for additional information, or to begin your access to our research.


John Kosar To Speak At Boston MTA Event<br>On September 13th, 2011

John Kosar, Director of Research, will be in Boston on September 13th to display and discuss Asbury Research’s September US Financial Market Chart Book for the Boston Chapter of the Market Technician’s Association.

The US Financial Market Chart Book is a collection of key charts and data analysis that convey our best investment ideas for the upcoming month and quarter in the US stock market, market sectors and US interest rates.  Our analysis is based on a number of key market factors including price and trend, market breadth, intermarket relationships, relative strength, sector rotation, and investor sentiment.

Click here to view a recent sample of our US Financial Market Chart Book, plus samples of our other reports.

This event is co-sponsored by State Street Global Markets, and will be held on the State Street Global Market trading floor.  Due to limited space for this event we will register the first 40 RSVPs.  RSVPs must be received by noon Sept. 12th.

DATE: Tuesday, September 13th, 2011

TIME: 5:00 PM

LOCATION:  State Street Global Markets
                           State Street Financial Center
                           One Lincoln Street, 5th Floor
                           Boston, MA 02111

RSVP — IMPORTANT:  Space is limited to 40 registrants for this event.  If you register and can not make it, please let us know so we can add someone from the waitlist.  MTA members may register online. Non-members please contact Shane Skwarek, and bill_kelleher@hotmail.com to register.

Note: The September US Financial Market Chart Book will be made available to Asbury Research Subscribers on Friday, September 9th.


Will The Gold Rally Continue?

In our Logic-Over-Emotion Investing blog postings we typically feature an investment idea and a chart from one of our recent Asbury Research premium reports.

Today’s posting (green highlights) is an excerpt from our September 2nd Global Seasonal Analysis report, pertaining to seasonality in gold prices.

Global Seasonal Analysis, one of 8 different reports that we produce for our subscribers at various intervals throughout the month, displays and analyzes annual, quarterly and monthly seasonal patterns for 17 different financial assets — including global equity prices, global benchmark interest rates, major foreign exchange rates, and key commodity prices — based on historical data going back to the 1950s.


excerpt from Global Seasonal Analysis
Gold Prices (London PM Fixing)
September 2nd, 2011

The green bar on the chart below identifies September as the seasonally strongest month of the year for gold prices (London PM fixing) since 1977.  It represents the second of a five-month period of mostly acute seasonal strength that runs through year end, interrupted by one month of acute seasonal weakness in October — which is the 2nd weakest month during this period. 

The August through December period includes the four seasonally strongest months for gold prices during this 34-year period.

The height of the green bar on the chart indicates that, on average since 1977, gold prices have risen by 2.90% during September.  The red line shows that during 2010 prices generally adhered to gold’s 34-year annual seasonal trend of a March to May advance, a June-July setback, then more strength during the second half of the year.

continued…


Asbury Research subscribers can view the rest of our September 2nd Global Seasonal Analysis by logging into the Research Center via the button at the upper right corner of the screen.

Professional investors can learn more about our investment research right here on our website which includes sample reports, client testimonials, our 2010 market calls, and John Kosar’s recent appearances in the media.

You can also call us at 224-569-4112 for further information.


Utilities Outperform By 14% Since July<br>(a lookback on our July 17th posting)

The primary purpose of our blog is to stay in touch with professional investors that have previously expressed an interest in Asbury Research by focusing on some of our recent market analysis to demonstrate who we are at what we do, while occasionally offering a current investment idea that appears in our premium research.

In our July 17th blog posting entitled Weakening US Economy In Q3 2011? Here’s One Sector To Watch, we discussed what at that time was our expectations for upcoming relative outperformance by the Utilities Sector — which was based on our market call for a declining interest rate environment within a weakening US economy.

Between July 17th and August 19th the yield of the US 10-Year Treasury Note plummeted by 87 basis points to generational lows at 2.07%. During the same one-month period, as shown by the chart below, the Utilities Sector SPDR ETF outperformed the S&P 500 Depository Receipts ETF as expected, by +14%.

Understanding how identifying a trend in one asset can define an investment opportunity in another is an important part of what we do

Asbury Research Subscribers can view our entire July 14th Asbury Alert entitled, Declining US Interest Rates In Q3 And Their Potential Effect On Asset Prices by clicking the link and entering your login info.

Interested investors can learn more about our investment research right here on our website which includes sample reports, client testimonials, our 2010 market calls, and John Kosar’s recent appearances in the media.

You can contact us for additional information online or by calling 224-569-4112.


Has The Dow Bottomed?<br>Finding Opportunity Amid Panic

In our Logic-Over-Emotion Investing blog postings we typically feature an investment idea or chart from one of our recent Asbury Research premium reports.

Today’s posting (green highlights) is an excerpt from our Thursday August 11th What We’re Watching Today report, which was emailed to Asbury Research subscribers 29 minutes after the opening on that day.


excerpt from What We’re Watching Today:
Major Support At Dow 10,881 to 10,719
Thursday August 11th 2011, 8:59 am CT

Major Support At Dow 10,881 to 10,719

 …has been tested and held over the past three trading sessions.  It represents the 61.8% retracement of the July 2010 to May 2011 advance and the August 2010 benchmark high, as shown by the green highlights on the chart below.  Considering the current favorable conditions for at least a near term US stock market rebound as discussed in our August 10th Asbury Alert (access requires subscription) entitled 5 Reasons For A Rebound In US Stocks, this support is a logical place from which to expect this upcoming rally to begin.

continued…


So far, from the opening on August 11th (the day of our report) through the first 40 minutes of trading today, the Dow has already risen by 562 points or +5.2%.

Asbury Research subscribers can view the rest of our August 11th report, plus our August 10th report entitled 5 Reasons For A Rebound In US Stocks, by logging into the Research Center via the button at the upper right corner of the screen.

Professional investors can learn more about our investment research right here on our website which includes sample reports, client testimonials, our 2010 market calls, and John Kosar’s recent appearances in the media.

You can also call us at 224-569-4112 for further information.


View John Kosar’s August 17th Presentation<br>To The Market Technicians Association

On Wednesday August 17th John Kosar, Director of Research, presented Asbury Research’s US Financial Update for August 2011 to the Market Technician’s Association as part of their Educational Web Series.

In this presentation, John Kosar, CMT analyzes the current position of the US stock market and US interest rates for the month of August according to a number of technical, quantitative and behavioral metrics including relative performance, volatility, intermarket analysis, market breadth, investor sentiment and seasonality.

Asbury Research Blog Readers can view the presentation by clicking here.

Asbury Research Subscribers can view the entire report, which was distributed to them on August 4th with an accompanying video, by clicking here.

Finally, the Market Technician’s Association, which John has been a member of since 1989 and has served as its Vice President and on its Board of Directors, is holding a Regional Seminar in Chicago on September 16th in the Willis Tower.  The event is completely free and open to non-members.  You can click here for details.


Widening Corporate Bond Spreads &<br>Q3 US Stock Market Direction

The following (green highlights) is a brief excerpt and one of 10 charts that were included in our Monday August 15th Keys To This Week report. It is one of 11 of our “Keys” to US stock market direction this week.

Keys To This Week, one of 7 different reports that Asbury Research produces for subscribers throughout the month, is a detailed outline of key market factors and corresponding charts — pertaining to the US stock market and market sectors, US interest rates, and the US Dollar — that are most likely to influence US financial market direction during the upcoming week.


excerpt from Asbury Research’s Keys To This Week
Subject: The US Stock Market
Date: August 15th 2011

Key #9: Credit Spreads. Widening BAA Corporate Bond Spread.  The green highlights on the chart below show that the BAA Corporate Bond Spread (Moody’s Corporate BAA bond yield minus the US 30-year constant maturity yield, red line, upper panel) widened out of its 6 month range last week.  This indicates increasing credit or repayment risk due to a deteriorating global growth outlook.  As the chart shows, the S&P 500 (black bars, lower  panel) historically declines when the spread widens above its 50-day moving average (blue line), which it is is now well above.

continued…


The entire August 15th Keys To This Week report is available to Asbury Research subscribers by logging into the Research Center via the button at the upper right corner of the screen.

Investors can learn more about our investment research right here on our website which includes sample reports, client testimonials, our 2010 market calls, and John Kosar’s recent appearances in the media.

Professional investors can also request trial access by clicking here or calling 224-569-4112.


Continue Reading:  1 44 45 46 47 48