Here’s where pros say oil will bottom (Ouch!)

Why do these levels still matter 15 years later?

Well, using historical prices to gauge future supply and demand is what technical analysis is all about.

And so the thinking goes that oil traders who successfully bought at $40 in 2004 and 2008 will try to do so once again. After all, it was a big winner for them on both occasions. The buying demand from them should come in and make $40 a bottom as oil continues to fall here, according to technical analysis theory.

John Kosar of Asbury Research is going even farther back to find the bottom. He too, sees it at $40.

35 years of oil prices

Crude Oil Futures: 1980-2015

“The monthly chart (above) shows that the next support for crude oil futures is $50.20 per barrel, which is currently being tested,” said Kosar, in an email. “The next level is an additional 20 percent below the market at the $40.38 March 1994 benchmark low.”

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