Dow hits 18K, but chart analysts aren’t buying

by Tae Kim

Defying a plunge in oil prices and concerns about a weak economy, the Dow Jones industrial average closed above 18,000 Monday for the first time since July. Is the bull market back in full swing or is this just another trading head fake?

CNBC Pro asked several technical analysts to consider the current prospects for the Dow now that it’s back to this emotional milestone. Here is what they said.

Dow average, 1 year

Source: FactSet

Asbury Research chief market strategist John Kosar said that the recent strength is likely due to seasonal patterns and that a downdraft may be coming.

The area around 17,900 and 18,000 “may be a particularly formidable level to get through, at least on the first attempt, as almost 60 years of seasonality data indicate that this is the seasonally strongest week of the entire second quarter, after which the U.S. broad market has historically declined into quarter end,” Kosar wrote in an email.

Since December 2014, the Dow has tried to break out above 18,000 many times. The latest attempt in November of last year led to a violent breakdown that took the Dow back below 16,000 before it was all said and done.

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The rest of this article is available via CNBC Pro (access requires subscription).

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