Following The Money with Asbury Research is a free report that we publish to stay in contact with individuals and businesses that have inquired about our company and services, and to educate them on our data-driven approach to investing. It includes our Following The Money podcast below. Please Contact Us to comment on this report or to request additional information.
This bi-weekly podcast provides the latest update and overview of our data-driven models:
- the Asbury 6 for Risk Management
- the Correction Protection Model (CPM) for Wealth Preservation
- the SEAF (Sector ETF Asset Flows) Model for Sector Rotation
- the CARP (Cross Asset Relative Performance) Model for Relative Performance
- the US vs. The World Model for Global Asset Allocation
These models collectively determine two things: 1) when to be invested, and 2) where to be invested.
This Week’s Focus: Big Cap Technology
This week, with the S&P 500 trading in a sideways, non-trending environment since December, our focus is on what’s been keeping the US stock market afloat since January. The answer: Large Cap Technology stocks.
The chart below, one of 56 charts in our latest Monthly Investment Compass published this weekend, shows Apple (AAPL) daily since July 2021 with its 200-day moving average, a widely-watched major trend proxy.
The chart shows that AAPL has been in a major uptrend, according to the 200-day MA, since early February but is currently testing a wall of formidable overhead resistance between 176.15 and 182.94 which represents three benchmark highs established in 2022. Overhead resistance like this is seldom appreciable and sustainable broken — if at all — without at least a significant corrective decline first.
Moreover, there are several other similarly influential stocks that are also currently testing major overhead resistance levels — just like AAPL is. We discuss these in detail in this weekend’s premium report. Unless these resistance levels are broken, it will be very hard for the S&P 500 to mount a sustainable rise above 4200, the top of its current 6-month trading range which is currently being tested.
The Asbury 6 Is Currently Positive, But Just Barely
The Asbury 6, our Tactical risk management model, is a combination of six diverse market metrics that we combined to look beyond the day-to-day, up-and-down noise of the stock market to determine its actual health — in much the same way that a doctor checks patients’ vital signs during an office visit to determine their baseline health. It helps us to identify real, sustainable market advances or declines from computer-driven traps for investors.
The Asbury 6 through April 19th is shown below. The “A6” shifted back to a Positive, Risk On status on May 18th.
A Positive status in the “A6” indicates the market’s internal health is currently favorable for a Tactical rise in stock prices. However, this model was constructed to be agile and sensitive. A Negative shift in the Asbury 6 from this pivotal price level at S&P 500 4200, especially accompanied by a bearish reversal in AAPL and/or the other handful of large cap Tech stocks we are closely watching, would be seen as a signal to protect capital and wait for a lower, better place to buy.
More information on all Asbury Research data-driven models is available by Clicking Here.
Asbury Research subscribers can get more detail on our latest analysis, and updates to our quantitative models, by logging into the Research Center.
Click the image below to view John Kosar’s March 15th interview by Investors Business Daily.
Disclaimer: This is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be a solicitation to buy or sell securities. The performance indicated from back-testing or historical track record may not be typical of future performance. No inferences may be made and no guarantees of profitability are being stated by Asbury Research LLC. The risk of loss trading in financial assets can be substantial. Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.