Global Seasonal Analysis is a monthly report that displays and analyzes annual, quarterly and monthly seasonal trends for 17 global asset prices including equities, benchmark interest rates, foreign exchange, and key commodity prices based on historical data going back to the 1950s.
The following is an excerpt from this month’s report.
Crude Oil Monthly Seasonal Pattern Since 1977
The teal bar on the chart at upper right on the previous page highlights April as the seasonally strongest month of the year for West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices since 1977. It represents the beginning of a five-month period of overall seasonal strength that includes the four strongest months of the year, interrupted by one month of seasonal weakness in June.
The height of the teal bar indicates that, on average since 1977, crude oil prices have risen by 2.77% in April. The red line shows that, also on average since 1977, crude oil prices have posted a positive April close 55% of the time.