Global Seasonal Analysis is a monthly report that displays and analyzes annual, quarterly and monthly seasonal trends for 17 global asset prices including equities, benchmark interest rates, foreign exchange, and key commodity prices based on historical data going back to the 1950s.
The following is an excerpt from this month’s report.
Crude Oil Monthly Seasonal Pattern Since 1977
The green bar on the chart at upper right on the previous page highlights April as the seasonally strongest month of the year for West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices since 1977. It represents the midpoint of a three-month period of acute seasonal strength in oil prices that also includes the 3rd (March) and 4th (May) strongest months of the year.
The height of the green bar indicates that, on average since 1977, crude oil prices have risen by 3.22% in April. The red line, which plots crude oil prices’ monthly closing levels during 2015, shows that they closely tracked their long term seasonal pattern last year.