Global Seasonal Analysis is a monthly report that displays and analyzes annual, quarterly and monthly seasonal trends for 17 global asset prices including equities, benchmark interest rates, foreign exchange, and key commodity prices based on historical data going back to the 1950s.
The following is an excerpt from this month’s report.
S&P 500 Yearly Seasonal Pattern Since 1957
In the S&P 500 Index (SPX, chart at upper left), the green bar highlights April as being the 2nd seasonally strongest month of the year based on data since 1957. It represents a modest one-month seasonal improvement over March, the 4th strongest month, but leads into the 5th and 2nd weakest months of the year in May and June.
The height of the green bar on the chart indicates that, on average since 1957, the S&P 500 has closed 1.45% higher in April. The red line shows that, also on average since 1957, SPX has posted a positive April close 70% of the time, which is the second highest incidence of a positive close (after December) for any month during this period.