Global Seasonal Analysis is a monthly report that displays and analyzes annual, quarterly and monthly seasonal trends for 17 global asset prices including equities, benchmark interest rates, foreign exchange, and key commodity prices based on historical data going back to the 1950s.
The following is an excerpt from this month’s report.
US 10-Year Yield Yearly Seasonal Pattern Since 1957
The green bar in the chart at upper left highlights August as, by far, the seasonally weakest month of the year in the yield of the US 10-Year Treasury Note, based on data since 1957. It represents a sharp one-month seasonal reversal from July, the 3rd strongest month, and leads into more sustained weakness through year end.
The depth of the green bar indicates that, on average since 1957, the yield of the 10-Year has declined by 1.30% in August. The red line plots these yields’ monthly closing levels thus far in 2018.