Global Seasonal Analysis is a monthly report that displays and analyzes annual, quarterly and monthly seasonal trends for 17 global asset prices including equities, benchmark interest rates, foreign exchange, and key commodity prices based on historical data going back to the 1950s.
The following is an excerpt from this month’s report.
S&P 500 Yearly Seasonal Pattern Since 1957
In the S&P 500 Index (SPX), the green bar in the chart below highlights August as the 10th seasonally strongest or 3rd weakest month of the year, based on data since 1957. It represents the first of a sharp two-month seasonal decline from July, the 7th strongest month, which culminates in September. September is, by far, the weakest month of the year.
The height of the green bar on the chart indicates that, on average since 1957, the S&P 500 has closed just 0.08% higher in August. The red line plots SPX’s monthly closing levels in 2019, showing that the index has thus far closely tracked its historic seasonal trend.