Global Seasonal Analysis is a monthly report that displays and analyzes annual, quarterly and monthly seasonal trends for 17 global asset prices including equities, benchmark interest rates, foreign exchange, and key commodity prices based on historical data going back to the 1950s.
The following is an excerpt from this month’s report.
S&P 500 Yearly Seasonal Pattern Since 1957
In the S&P 500 Index (SPX) the green bar in the chart below highlights December as being the seasonally strongest month of the year based on data since 1957. It represents a modest one-month seasonal improvement over November, the 3rd strongest month, but leads into the 7th and 4th weakest months of the year in January and February.
The height of the green bar on the chart indicates that, on average since 1957, the S&P 500 has closed 1.47% higher in December. The red line shows that, also on average since 1957, the S&P 500 has posted a positive monthly close 73% of the time, its highest incidence of a positive close for any month during this period.