Global Seasonal Analysis is a monthly report that displays and analyzes annual, quarterly and monthly seasonal trends for 17 global asset prices including equities, benchmark interest rates, foreign exchange, and key commodity prices based on historical data going back to the 1950s.
The following is an excerpt from this month’s report.
S&P 500 Yearly Seasonal Pattern Since 1957
In the S&P 500 Index (SPX, chart at upper left), the green bar highlights December as the seasonally strongest month of the year based on data since 1957. It precedes a decline into February, the 3rd weakest month, before more seasonal strength emerges in March and April, which are the 4th and 2nd strongest months.
The height of the green bar on the chart indicates that, on average since 1957, the S&P 500 has closed 1.46% higher in December. The red line plots SPX’s monthly closing levels thus far this year, showing that the 2018 annual trend has actually moved inversely to its seasonal norm.