Global Seasonal Analysis is a monthly report that displays and analyzes annual, quarterly and monthly seasonal trends for 17 global asset prices including equities, benchmark interest rates, foreign exchange, and key commodity prices based on historical data going back to the 1950s.
The following is an excerpt from this month’s report.
USDEUR Monthly Seasonal Pattern Since 1947
The green bar on the chart at upper right on the previous page highlights February as, by far, the seasonally weakest month of the year for the US Dollar versus the euro (formerly German Mark) since 1947. February represents a sharp one-month seasonal decline from January, the 3rd strongest month of the year, and the beginning of a zig-zag type pattern of alternating seasonally strong and weak months that runs through June.
The depth of the green bar shows that, on average since 1947, the US Dollar has underperformed the euro by 2.34% in February. The red line shows that, also on average since 1947, USDEUR has posted a negative February close 64% of the time, the greenback’s highest incidence of a negative monthly close during this period.