Global Seasonal Analysis is a monthly report that displays and analyzes annual, quarterly and monthly seasonal trends for 17 global asset prices including equities, benchmark interest rates, foreign exchange, and key commodity prices based on historical data going back to the 1950s.
The following is an excerpt from this month’s report.
S&P 500 Yearly Seasonal Pattern Since 1957
In the S&P 500 Index (SPX, chart at upper left), the green bar highlights January as being the 6th seasonally strongest month of the year based on data since 1957. It represents a significant one-month seasonal decline from December, the strongest month of the year, and leads into an even weaker February, the 9th strongest month, before an aggressive seasonal rebound emerges in March and April.
The height of the green bar on the chart indicates that, on average since 1957, the S&P 500 has closed 0.87% higher in January. The red line shows that, also on average since 1957, SPX has posted a positive January close 59% of the time.