Global Seasonal Analysis is a monthly report that displays and analyzes annual, quarterly and monthly seasonal trends for 17 global asset prices including equities, benchmark interest rates, foreign exchange, and key commodity prices based on historical data going back to the 1950s.
The following is an excerpt from this month’s report.
Crude Oil Monthly Seasonal Pattern Since 1977
The green bar on the chart at upper right on the previous page highlights July as the 5th seasonally strongest month of the year for West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices based on data since 1977. Like the CRB Index, it represents a one-month seasonal rebound from a weak June, which in this case is the 4th weakest month, and leads into more acute seasonal strength in August, the 2nd strongest month.
The height of the green bar indicates that, on average since 1977, crude oil prices have risen by 1.23% in July. The red line shows that, also on average since 1977, oil prices have posted a positive July close 64% of the time, which is the highest incidence of a positive close for any month during this period.