Global Seasonal Analysis is a monthly report that displays and analyzes annual, quarterly and monthly seasonal trends for 17 global asset prices including equities, benchmark interest rates, foreign exchange, and key commodity prices based on historical data going back to the 1950s.
The following is an excerpt from this month’s report.
Gold Monthly Seasonal Pattern Since 1977
The green bar on the chart at lower left on the previous page shows that March is the seasonally weakest month of the year for gold prices based on data since 1977. It precedes a very gradual, multi-month seasonal rally that accelerates, and culminates, in August and September, the two strongest months of the year.
The depth of the green bar indicates that, on average since 1977, gold prices have declined by 1.08% in March. The red line shows that, also on average since 1977, gold prices have posted a negative March close 57% of the time, which is their second highest incidence (after October) of a negative close for any month during this period.