Global Seasonal Analysis is a monthly report that displays and analyzes annual, quarterly and monthly seasonal trends for 17 global asset prices including equities, benchmark interest rates, foreign exchange, and key commodity prices based on historical data going back to the 1950s.
The following is an excerpt from this month’s report.
Crude Oil Monthly Seasonal Pattern Since 1977
The green bar on the chart at upper right on the previous page highlights November as the seasonally weakest month of the year for West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices since 1977. It represents the midpoint of a three-month period of seasonal weakness that runs through December and includes the three weakest months of the year.
The depth of the green bar indicates that, on average since 1977, crude oil prices have declined by 1.94% in November. The red line shows that, also on average since 1977, oil prices have posted a negative November close 58% of the time, which is the highest incidence of a negative close for any month during this period.
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