Global Seasonal Analysis is a monthly report that displays and analyzes annual, quarterly and monthly seasonal trends for 17 global asset prices including equities, benchmark interest rates, foreign exchange, and key commodity prices based on historical data going back to the 1950s.
The following is an excerpt from this month’s report.
Crude Oil Yearly Seasonal Pattern Since 1977
The green bar on the chart below shows that November is the seasonally weakest month of the year in West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices based on data since 1977. It represents the midpoint of a seasonally weak 4th Quarter that includes the three weakest months of the year.
The depth of the green bar indicates that, on average since 1977, crude oil prices have declined by 1.78% in November. The red line shows that, also on average since 1977, crude oil prices have posted a negative November close 56% of the time which, with October, is the highest incidence of a negative close for any month during this period.