Global Seasonal Analysis is a monthly report that displays and analyzes annual, quarterly and monthly seasonal trends for 17 global asset prices including equities, benchmark interest rates, foreign exchange, and key commodity prices based on historical data going back to the 1950s.
The following is an excerpt from this month’s report.
CRB Index Monthly Seasonal Pattern Since 1967
The Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Commodity Index is a weighted average of 19 commodities including aluminum, cocoa, coffee, copper, corn, cotton, crude oil, gold, heating oil, lean hogs, live cattle, natural gas, nickel, orange juice, silver, soybeans, sugar, unleaded gas, and wheat. The CRB has historically been viewed by investors as a bellwether of market-based inflation.
The green bar on the chart at upper left on the previous page shows that October is the seasonally weakest month of the year for the CRB Index based on data since 1967. October also leads into a strong one-month seasonal rebound in November, the 3rd strongest month, and eventually into more seasonal strength during January and February.
The depth of the green bar on the chart indicates that, on average since 1967, the CRB has declined by 0.22% in October. The red line plots the CRB’s monthly closing levels thus far in 2015.
Commodity prices’ ability this year to adhere to their seasonal trend of bottoming in October before rising into the 1st Quarter will likely be an important factor in either stemming or confirming the market’s current fears of global deflation.