Global Seasonal Analysis is a monthly report that displays and analyzes annual, quarterly and monthly seasonal trends for 17 global asset prices including equities, benchmark interest rates, foreign exchange, and key commodity prices based on historical data going back to the 1950s.

The following is an excerpt from this month’s report.

Gold Yearly Seasonal Pattern Since 1977

The green bar on the chart below shows that September is the seasonally strongest month of the year for gold prices based on data since 1977.  It follows the 2nd strongest month, August, but immediately precedes a sharp one-month seasonal decline in October, the 2nd weakest month, before the seasonal trend improves between December and February.

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The height of the green bar indicates that, on average since 1977, gold prices have risen by 2.02% in September.  The red line shows that, also on average since 1977, gold prices have plotted a positive September close 63% of the time, the highest incidence of a positive close for any month during this period.

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