Research Excerpts

Instant Replay:<br>Our (Televised) 2011 Market Calls

Posted on: Thursday, December 1st, 2011

With 2011 coming to a close, we thought this was a good time to review the US market calls that we made on financial television this year.  One great thing about video is that it doesn’t lie (as some of our 2012 Presidential candidates are finding out).

We made 6 appearances in 2011 (so far, anyway) which, by pure accident, turned out to be pretty evenly spaced.  Looking at the videos now, back-to-back, they were close enough together to maintain a reasonably-consistent story line throughout the year.

Many thanks to both Fox Business and CNBC for giving us the opportunity to talk about our research this year.

The date of each of these appearances appears below, in chronological order, along with 1) what we said, 2) what the market did over the next month or two, and 3) a link to the video.

March 24, 2011

John Kosar, Director of Research, appeared on Fox Business to discuss US interest rates’ potential influence on the US stock market in Q2 2011.

Kosar said that Asbury Research was anticipating a quarterly peak  to soon emerge in the yield of the US 10-Year Treasury Note which, if this peak materialized as expected, should portend upcoming weakness for the US stock market in Q2 2011.

What The Market Did: The yield of the 10-Year Note peaked 3 business days later, at 3.50% on March 29th, then proceeded to collapse by 62 basis points to 2.88% by June 24th.  The S&P 500 peaked about 5 weeks after John’s appearance, at 1371 on May 2nd, and then proceeded to decline by 113 points or -8% into the 1258 June 16th low.

Click Here for the video.

June 2, 2011

John Kosar appeared on CNBC’s Closing Bell with hosts Bill Griffeth and Melissa Francis on June 2nd, 2011.  John displayed and discussed seasonality in the S&P 500 during the 2nd Quarter, based on statistical data going back to 1957.

Kosar said that the US stock market historically peaks during the first week of June, then collapses into the end of June before rebounding into early July.

Per this seasonal pattern, the S&P 500 actually peaked on June 1st this year, at 1345, before declining by 82 points or -6% to 1263 by June 23rd.  The S&P 500 then quickly rebounded by 94 points or +7% into the July 7th,  1356 high.

Click Here for the video.

July 20, 2011

John Kosar, Director of Research, appeared on Fox Business on July 20th 2011 to point out the recent relative underperformance by the Semiconductor Sector versus the S&P 500.

Kosar said that this recent relative underperformance by the Semi’s, which typically lead the market higher, was a red flag for the US broad market and warned of an imminent decline..

The S&P 500 peaked a day later, at 1347 on July 21st, and then plummeted by 245 points or -18% into the August 9th low.

 Click Here for the video.

September 29, 2011

John Kosar, Director of Research, appeared on Fox Business on September 29th 2011 to discuss the inter-market relationship between the German DAX and S&P 500, and its directional implication for the US stock market in Q4 2011.

Kosar said that: 1) as long as the German DAX held 5150 support (which was being tested at the time), it was bullish for both the European and US stock markets, 2) he was looking for a sustainable bottom to emerge in the US stock market during the 4th Quarter, and that 3) investors should consider “participating” in bullish positions at the market’s current level.

The German DAX did indeed hold 5150 support.  The S&P 500 bottomed 3 days later at 1075 on October 29th, and subsequently rose by 218 points or +20% into the 1293 October 27th high.

Click Here for the video.

October 28, 2011

John Kosar, Director of Research, appeared on Fox Business on October 28th 2011 to discuss Asbury Research’s outlook for the rest of 2011 based on the US stock market’s relative performance versus Europe, and on the latest asset flow data pertaining to US market sectors.

Kosar said that: 1) the German DAX should outperform the S&P 500 through year end and that this should be bullish for the US market, 2) The Industrials and Energy Sectors were poised to outperform the broad market through year end, and 3) Asbury Research was targeting a rise to at least $100 per barrel in NYMEX crude oil.

As of early December, the Industrial Sector has outperformed the S&P 500 by +2%.  Crude oil prices rose by $8 per barrel by November 16th, to reach Asbury’s initial target of $100 about 2 weeks after this appearance.

Click Here for the video.

November 10, 2011

John Kosar, Director of Research, appeared on CNBC’s Street Signs on November 9th 2011 with host Brian Sullivan to discuss crude oil prices’ potential influence on future US stock market direction.

Kosar said that oil prices were amid favorable conditions to “take a run at $100 per barrel”, and that $100 oil should coincide with a rise in the US stock market.

NYMEX crude oil reached $100 per barrel 5 days later, on November 16th and, following a minor pullback to $95 on November 25th, is now trading back above $100 again as of early December.  Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has already rebounded by +8% since establishing a near term bottom, right along with oil prices, on November 25th.

Click Here for the video.

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