Research Excerpts

Investor Sentiment Points To Opportunity Ahead

Posted on: Thursday, September 24th, 2015

The following graphic is one of 22 slides from our latest Monthly Investment Compass, which was sent to Asbury Research subscribers this morning.

Monthly Investment Compass is a chart book that includes the global asset prices and market metrics that are likely to be the most influential to upcoming direction in the US stock market, market sectors, and US interest rates over the next 1-2 quarters.  It includes a video in which John Kosar goes over the nuances and directional implications of each chart.

Month Investment Compass, September 24th 2015: Slide 14 of 22

Monthly Investment Compass, Sept 24th 2015: Slide 14 of 22

This particular slide focuses on investor sentiment data pertaining to the US stock market.  The chart on the left is our own metric that measures the velocity of investor assets moving into the money market, which tells us when investors are the most frightened of a stock market decline — which has historically preceded buying opportunities.  The chart on the right is one of a number of investor surveys that we track, the NAAIM (National Association of Active Asset Managers) Exposure Index, which tracks bullish sentiment on the US stock market.

Investor sentiment tells us when investors are collectively off-sides, either too bullish or too bearish, which typically precedes a new investment opportunity.

Asbury Research subscribers can access the entire report and accompanying video by logging into the Research Center via the big gold button at the upper right edge of the screen.