Research Excerpts

Reviewing Our July 12th Educational Webinar: Where We Were & Where We’re Going

Posted on: Wednesday, November 14th, 2018

Monday, November 12th marked exactly 4 months since our July 12th 2018 webinar for Fidelity Investments, entitled Asbury Research’s 2018 Mid Year Investment Update.  In these webinars, which we have been regularly presenting to a number of investment firms and professional organizations since 2015, we show serious investors some of the tools that a veteran market strategist uses to improve investment performance while also protecting assets, and hopefully teach them how to be better informed and more successful investors.

The following market analysis is taken from the Executive Summary of our July 12th webinar for Fidelity (black text), followed by how the financial markets we discussed have fared since then (red highlights).


US Stock Market Outlook, July 12th: 

Despite recent geopolitical jitters,the US stock market is still in the midst of positive trends in most indexes, and amid mostly favorable technical/quantitative conditions for more strength. Specifically, we are expecting the  benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) to rise by as much as an additional 7%.

The S&P 500 proceeded to rise by an additional 6% into the 2941 September 21st high.

Market Size (where to be invested), July 12th:

Large Cap stocks remain amid favorable conditions for upcoming relative outperformance versus the S&P 1500.  Meanwhile, Small Cap is at opposite over-loved extremes and thus vulnerable to upcoming relative underperformance versus the S&P 1500.

Since July 12th, the iShares LargeCap S&P 500 ETF (IVV) has outperformed the iShares S&P 1500 Index Fund (ITOT) by 27% through October 24th.  Meanwhile, the iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Index underperformed the iShares S&P 1500 Index Fund (ITOT) by 21% also since October 24th.

Market Sectors (what to be invested in), July 12th:

We are currently overweight Utilities, Consumer Staples, Health Care and Real Estate, and are outright positive on Consumer Discretionary.

Since then:

  • The SPDR Utilities Sector ETF (XLU) outperformed the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by 11% through October 24th
  • The SPDR Consumer Staples ETF (XLP) outperformed SPY by 11% through October 30th
  • The SPDR Health Care Sector ETF (XLV) outperformed SPY by 8% through November 12th
  • The SPDR Real Estate Sector ETF (XLRE) outperformed SPY by 3% through November 13th
  • The SPDR Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) rose by 7% through October 1st

No one can see into the future, and no one gets the markets right all the time.  We are certainly no exception.  But we do firmly believe that our comprehensive blend of technical, quantitative and behavioral market metrics — combined with almost 40 years of experience — can help to identify good investing opportunities in all market environments and, more importantly, can significantly limit losses and protect capital during adverse market moves.

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