US Stocks At Important Inflection Point
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In our previous May 9th Stock Market Update & Asbury Investment Management Video, entitled Just Follow The Data, we pointed out that our Asbury 6 Tactical Model had been on a Positive status since March 11th and that during that time the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) had risen by 241 points or 6.1%. As the title suggested, the point of that report was to emphasize to investors to never assume that the market has gone too far, too fast, or can’t possibly go higher — and to just follow the data every day and let the market tell you when it’s ready to reverse.
The market is starting to tell us that now. Table 1 below shows that, through Friday, 5 of the Asbury 6 constituent metrics are red or negative, and the Asbury 6 Model itself has been on a Negative status since May 17th. This means the market is internally weakening and is vulnerable to a deeper decline.
How To Interpret The Asbury 6: Four or more metrics in one direction, either Positive (green) or Negative (red), indicate a Tactical bias. The dates in each cell indicate when each individual constituent of the A6 turned either positive (green) or negative (red). When all Asbury 6 are positive, market internals are the most conducive to adding risk to portfolios. Each negative reading adds an additional element of risk to participating in current or new investment ideas.
What often happens, though, is that the market starts weakening internally before a tangible market decline begins so we have to be careful not to jump the gun. We do this by waiting for the US broad market to decline below what we define as Tactical support, to confirm that the internal weakness is having a tangible bearish effect on prices.
Chart 1 below shows that, next week, that Tactical support is situated at 4091 to 4057. A breakdown below that level, confirmed by a continued Negative status in our Asbury 6, would indicate that a long-overdue corrective decline is beginning.
Our latest video below shows how we have navigated these recent market conditions for client portfolios in real-time.
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