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Inflation Fear Reigns, Major Downtrend Resumes

S&P 500 Fails At 4115-4171 Overhead Resistance

Two weeks ago, in our May 29th Stock Market Update & Asbury Investment Management Video, we pointed out that the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) had risen by 304 points or 8% from 3854 support (per our May 15th report) while the market’s internal strength, according to our Asbury 6 risk management model, was improving.

Through Friday, June 12th, however,  things have changed.  Late last week’s wicked market collapse was at least partially triggered by SPX’s failure to rise above overhead resistance at 4115-4171, which Chart 1 below shows was tested for 8 days in a row, between May 27th and Jun 8th, before collapsing back below it on Thursday and Friday. 

Chart 1

The reason the S&P 500 failed at this resistance was that, as Friday’s May Consumer Price Index got closer and closer, investors became more and more apprehensive about being in the stock market. And it turned out that they were right as Friday’s report showed that May U.S. consumer prices accelerated at the fastest rate since 1981, and the S&P 500 subsequently closed 2.9% lower for the day and 5.1% lower for the week.

The Asbury 6 Warn Of More Weakness

Meanwhile, Table 1 below shows that those improving market internals that we talked about in this space two weeks ago quickly disappeared as the Asbury 6 shifted to a Negative status as of the close on Friday, from a Positive status on May 26th.  This indicates the 2022 US stock market downtrend remains intact and is vulnerable to further losses next week.    

Table 1

Editor’s Note: The Asbury 6 is our own quantitative risk management model which is updated daily in our Research Center.   The “A6” is a combination of six diverse market metrics that we grouped together to look beyond the day-to-day, up-and-down noise of the stock market to determine its actual health — in much the same way that a doctor first checks the patient’s vital signs during an office visit.   Four or more metrics in one direction, either Positive (green) or Negative (red), indicate a Tactical market bias. The dates in each cell indicate when each individual constituent of the A6 turned either positive (green) or negative (red). When all Asbury 6 are positive, market internals are the most conducive to adding risk to portfolios. Each negative reading adds an additional element of risk to participating in current or new investment ideas.

The Asbury 6 has been on a Negative status for most of this year, which has helped us to protect both our research subscribers and investment management clients from most of this year’s stock market decline. 

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This communication is for informational purposes only. It is not intended as investment advice, or as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial asset.  No inferences may be made and no guarantees of profitability are being stated by Asbury Research LLC.  The risk of loss trading in financial assets can be substantial. Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

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