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Asbury 6 Signals A Tactical Bottom
In our Jun 26th Stock Market Update & Asbury Investment Management Video, we said that a number of important stock indexes and influential stocks were testing important underlying support levels that could spur a significant market rally. However, we also pointed out that our Asbury 6 risk management model was still on a Jun 10th Negative status and that, as long as that was the case, it was too soon to assume that a tradeable market bottom was in place.
Today, almost a month later, the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) has now risen by 10% from its mid-June lows.
In addition, Table 1 below shows that the Asbury 6 has turned back to Positive or bullish. It actually turned Positive on July 19th and SPX has risen by 2% since then.
The Asbury 6 looks at market internals — the stock market’s real under-the-hood condition — rather than focusing on the day-to-day up and down market noise that is primarily driven by algorithmic (computerized) trading. This “noise” can really get investors into trouble because it pushes their “fear and greed buttons” to act on every erratic move, rather than just focusing on the actual condition of the market.
How To Interpret The Asbury 6: The Asbury 6 is our own quantitative risk management model which is updated daily in our Research Center. The “A6” is a combination of six diverse market metrics that we grouped together to look beyond the day-to-day, up-and-down noise of the stock market to determine its actual health — in much the same way that a doctor checks the patient’s vital signs during an office visit. Four or more metrics in one direction, either Positive (green) or Negative (red), indicate a Tactical market bias. The dates in each cell indicate when each individual constituent of the A6 turned either positive (green) or negative (red). When all Asbury 6 are positive, market internals are the most conducive to adding risk to portfolios. Each negative reading adds an additional element of risk to participating in current or new investment ideas.
The Asbury 6 initially turned Negative on January 14th and has avoided most of this year’s declines. Its recent shift back to Positive suggests an emerging Tactical buying opportunity. We are now closely monitoring our other quantitative models to determine which parts of the market to be invested in so we can position ourselves to outperform the S&P 500 on its way back up.
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Disclaimer: This is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be a solicitation to buy or sell securities. The performance indicated from back-testing or historical track record may not be typical of future performance. No inferences may be made and no guarantees of profitability are being stated by Asbury Research LLC. The risk of loss trading in financial assets can be substantial. Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.