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US Stocks At A Major Crossroads, Look For Opportunities
In our previous August 21st Stock Market Update & Asbury Investment Management Video, we pointed out that the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) was testing and starting to back away from major overhead resistance near 4300 and said we needed to pay special attention to this. Specifically, we said this was where the US broad market index’s 2022 major downtrend should resume if it was still valid.
Chart 1 below, which plots the S&P 500 daily over the past year, shows that the broad market index indeed collapsed from that resistance — actually by 11% into the early September lows — to indicate its 2022 major downtrend was still intact. However, SPX subsequently found underlying support at 3900, a level we had been highlighting in our premium reports. The index aggressively rebounded from 3900 last week, which is encouraging, but the major downtrend will still remain intact below the 4275 area next week.
Moreover, Table 1 below shows that, through Friday, our Asbury 6 risk management model still remains on an August 26th Negative status. This means that, despite last week’s rally, Asbury’s own measure of the stock market’s internal health has not yet improved by enough to indicate last week’s rally is sustainable.
How To Interpret The Asbury 6: The Asbury 6 is our own quantitative risk management model which is updated daily in our Research Center. The “A6” is a combination of six diverse market metrics that we grouped together to look beyond the day-to-day, up-and-down noise of the stock market to determine its actual health — in much the same way that a doctor checks the patient’s vital signs during an office visit. Four or more metrics in one direction, either Positive (green) or Negative (red), indicate a Tactical market bias. The dates in each cell indicate when each individual constituent of the A6 turned either positive (green) or negative (red). When all Asbury 6 are positive, market internals are the most conducive to adding risk to portfolios. Each negative reading adds an additional element of risk to participating in current or new investment ideas.
Our analysis strongly suggests that the US stock market’s next Strategic trend through year-end and potentially into 2023 — either up or down — is likely to begin from right here between SPX 4300 and 3900. As long as the Asbury 6 remains Negative as it is now, this move is likely to be lower and would likely result in a retest of the June lows. Conversely, if the “A6” turns Positive, it will suggest that major resistance near 4300 is likely to be broken, triggering a potential move back to the 4800 2022 highs.
There are potential opportunities at this inflection point, so stay tuned.
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Disclaimer: This is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be a solicitation to buy or sell securities. The performance indicated from back-testing or historical track record may not be typical of future performance. No inferences may be made and no guarantees of profitability are being stated by Asbury Research LLC. The risk of loss trading in financial assets can be substantial. Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.