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S&P 500 At A Critical Q4 Decision Point
In our previous October 23rd Stock Market Update & Asbury Investment Management Video, we stated that our Asbury 6 risk management model turned Positive on October 18th after being Negative for most of this year. The benchmark S&P 500 has since risen by as much as 5.0% into the November 1st high before pulling back sharply at the end of last week.
The Asbury 6: Positive As Of Oct 18th
Despite last week’s pullback, the graphic below shows that through Friday, five of the Asbury 6 constituent metrics are still green (bullish). However, several of our model’s constituent metrics are at inflection points, which means that the US broad market must firm up next week to maintain the “A6’s” Positive status.
How To Interpret The Asbury 6: Four or more metrics in one direction indicate a Tactical bias. The dates in each cell indicate when each individual constituent turned either positive (green) or negative (red). When all Asbury 6 are positive, market internals are the most conducive to adding equities exposure to portfolios.
Know Your Levels Next Week
Now that we know the Asbury 6 is still Positive but at an inflection point, the next question to answer is: where is Tactical support?
Our analysis indicates that primary Tactical support is at 3700 as highlighted in the chart below.
The Bottom Line
If the 3700 area holds as support and SPX rallies above 3877, it would confirm an important bottom at the October lows and target an upcoming rise to 4025. If 3700 does not hold and the Asbury 6 turns negative, however, it would indicate the larger 2022 decline is resuming and warn of upcoming new lows for the year.
Asbury Investment Management (AIM): Our Latest Video
We Protect What You Have Spent A Lifetime Building
Here is our November 4th Video Review, which explains how we have recently utilized our data-driven models to professionally manage client portfolios. Our focus is on making sure your nest egg is secure and protected so you can focus on the more important things in life.
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Disclaimer: This is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be a solicitation to buy or sell securities. The performance indicated from back-testing or historical track record may not be typical of future performance. No inferences may be made and no guarantees of profitability are being stated by Asbury Research LLC. The risk of loss trading in financial assets can be substantial. Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.