Opinion – Larry Martin – The Leavenworth Times – Leavenworth, KS
The historical performance of the markets might also provide a bit of insight. An article posted on CNBC on April 21 stated, “Since hitting its February low, the S&P 500 has rallied 15 percent and come within 2 percent of its all-time highs.”
But according to one market watcher, the top could be in for the year, if history is any guide. Technical analyst John Kosar said from a seasonal standpoint, (a week from last) Friday marks the end of peak week for stocks in the second quarter.
“Since 1957 we have April being the strongest month of the year for the S&P 500, and on average it has closed 1.5 percent higher on the month since that time,” Kosar said last Thursday on CNBC.
The S&P 500 is currently up 1.6 percent this month.
“That tells me that we’ve already gone, seasonally, as high as we should,” he said.
Kosar also said that the third week in April has historically tended to be the strongest week in the second quarter, averaging a return of nearly 1 percent. “Clearly there are some seasonality issues going on right now,” Kosar said.
So there may be some truth to the old saying – sell in May and stay away.
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