Parsing Interest Rates’ Surprise Decline

Sunday March 30th, 2014

John Kosar, research director at Asbury Research in Schaumburg, Ill., tracks a series of technical indicators that in the past have been good forecasters of interest-rate trends.

Those include buying patterns of commercial futures traders; the behavior of U.S. Treasurys compared with German government bonds; surveys of trader attitudes and demand for exchange-traded Treasury-bond funds. These all are pointing toward lower rates, Mr. Kosar said.

“I’m telling clients that the table is set for a move toward higher Treasury prices and lower rates,” he added.


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