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US 10-Year Yields Meet Our 2.23% Target

Posted on: Tuesday, October 14th, 2014

The yield of the benchmark US 10-Year Treasury Note has declined to as low as 2.18% thus far this morning, meeting our 2.23% downside target first mentioned in our August 18th Keys To this Week report, when these yields were trading at 2.40%.

Meanwhile the CBOT 30-year T-Bond contract has risen by 4 16/32nds or 3.2% while the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has risen by 4.63 or 4.0%.

From that report:

“The most important and influential market factor of the past week was US 10-year yields’ collapse below the pivotal 2.40% area on Friday. This suggests that yields’ 2014 decline from 3.00% is not over, and clears the way for a deeper decline to 2.23%, and potentially to 2.07% later on this year. Meanwhile, expanding futures open interest, the latest investor sentiment data, a 56-year seasonal trend, and a bullish chart pattern in the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) with an unmet target 2% above the market collectively establish favorable conditions for long dated US Treasury prices to continue higher through the 3rd Quarter.”

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