Research Excerpts

US Stocks: Prices Historically Peak In Early June

Posted on: Friday, June 24th, 2011

Being aware of long term seasonal trends in US financial asset prices can give investors a big advantage in anticipating upcoming investment opportunities — especially when the latest financial data supports the historic seasonal pattern.

Back on June 1st, we wrote a report entitled, US Stocks: June Seasonally Peaks Early In The Month.

CNBC invited us to discuss that report on their Closing Bell segment on June 2nd.  You can view that interview on the Asbury Research website by clicking here.

From that report:

“The month of June is the 3rd seasonally weakest month in the S&P 500 since 1957, following September and February. A further breakdown of this 53-year seasonal pattern shows that the first week of June is the 2nd strongest of the entire 2nd Quarter, while the last three weeks of June are among the weakest of the 2nd Quarter.”

Although Melissa Francis and Bill Griffeth were unclear on what was the 1st week of June in terms of seasonality data (our fault, we did not explain that the “short week” of Wednesday June 1st through Friday June 3rd was Week 1 in calendar terms), the S&P 500 actually peaked for the month during Week 1, at 1345 on June 1st, and has since declined by 87 points or -7% by June 16th, which is Week 3.