Research Excerpts

What 40 Years Of History Say About Oil Prices Into Year End

Posted on: Wednesday, September 7th, 2016

The following is one of 24 charts from our September 2016 Global Seasonal Analysis report.

Global Seasonal Analysis, one of 9 different reports that we produce for subscribers, is a monthly report that displays and analyzes annual, quarterly and monthly seasonal trends for 17 global asset prices including equities, benchmark interest rates, foreign exchange, and key commodity prices based on historical data going back to the 1950s.

The following is an excerpt from this month’s report.

Crude Oil Monthly Seasonal Pattern Since 1977

The green bar on the chart at upper right on the previous page highlights September as the 5th seasonally strongest month of the year for West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices based on data since 1977.  It represents a one-month segue between the 2nd seasonally strongest month of the year, August, and the three weakest months of the year in October, November and December.

Chart 19 of 24

Chart 19 of 24

The height of the green bar indicates that, on average since 1977, crude oil prices have risen by 1.17% in September.  The red line shows that oil prices closely tracked their 40-year annual seasonal pattern during 2015.

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